The Last Gold Rush Ever!
Don’t let the title (The Last Gold Rush Ever!) or subtitle (7 Reasons for the Runaway Gold Market and How You Can Profit from It) fool you.
The book is much more than about gold. It’s about the end of the US dollar in its present iteration, no matter what replaces the dollar.
My favorite chapters, and Goyette’s too, are “The Crossroads of History” and “The Empire’s End”, how empires always collapse due to military expansion.
The book is a historical deep dive into monetary systems, global empires, US hegemony, currency wars, trade wars, and real wars.
A Few Snips
- As Pat Buchanan critically observed in the heat of the Iraq war, in his book Day of Reckoning: “Between the alliance with France in the Revolutionary War in 1778 and the creation of NATO in 1949, the United States did not enter a formal alliance with any country. Yet we are now treaty-bound to defend 60 nations on five continents.”
- Seventy-five years after World War II ended, there remain 194 US base sites in Germany and 121 in Japan. In South Korea, more than two generations after the war, there are 83 US bases.
- The former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Charles W. Freeman Jr. offered this perspective in 2016: “The United States has now been engaged in a cold war with Iran—Persia—for thirty-seven years. It has conducted various levels of hot war in Iraq for twenty-six years. It has been in combat in Afghanistan for fifteen years. Americans have bombed Somalia for fifteen, Libya for five, and Syria for one and a half years. One war has led to another. None has yielded any positive result and none shows any sign of doing so.”
Goyette says, “Mark Twain was right. America cannot have an empire abroad and a republic at home. We are dangerously naïve about, and woefully ill-prepared for, the ending of their Global Military Empire.“
Read the book. You will enjoy it and learn a thing or two. Here’s a link to buy The Last Gold Rush Ever!
Mish
It sounds like a 5 hour orgy of conformational bias, not that I’d likely disagree with much of it.
Meanwhile, the coming week is going to be interesting for gold. The dollar made a swing high on 3-8-21…but as of now the trend is still one of higher highs and higher lows.
Uncle Buck trying to fall right now…..and I’m watching two levels….the recent low of 91.38 to see if it holds….and below that, the January 6 low of 89.38 or so.
The set-up for tomorrow portends (imho) to be an up day for gold from a technical standpoint and the way the dollar is easing….a good follow-through up day would do a lot to convince me that the short term bottom is in for gold, and I might reset the fun trade on a dip.
That’s neither here nor there. Call me when the Dollar Index breaks below 75. The problem is dollar holders cannot afford the dollar to become worth less much less worth less.
I watch that level too, because imho that is where one can say that the dollar is truly breaking down,….if it breaks below 75….until then it’s within a “normal” range.
And they don’t want to hold other fiat currencies either as indicated by the current gold backwardation or tight basis. Which I suppose is not surprising given the low yields and current prospects in the bond markets. I wonder what DxY would be had Gold been included in the basket of currencies.
The dollar turned back up in the overnight, so that might weigh on gold today. Bond yields also continue to threaten to break out to higher levels. All other things being equal…..that might mean gold hits a snag today. Just gonna watch for a while.
So gold was rangebound today. It never dropped down to really test support, nor did it really break out, although it made it up to 1735 before losing steam. This was in spite of bond yields staying up and the dollar staying strong.
My conclusion is that we are most likely going to see more upside for a while, although nothing goes straight up. I will be looking for a decent dip to go long for another fun trade.
I did read one article that is still calling for gold to drop down and test 16000, which was my view a week ago, but if gold is going to get smacked hard, its getting late for it to happen.
The miners, which I don’t follow closely, did make a bullish move today, closing above the declining trend line. According to my mentor, a close above the 50 day MA for GDX will put the miners in a confirmed uptrend, This I take as more support for the idea that gold is slipping back into an uptrend.
“test 1600” not 16000
Short read, and nothing new for me here. I will stop short of calling it a waste of 20 bucks. It kept me entertained for two hours.
Like many similar authors (like Jim Rickards, for instance) these guys do a pretty good job of describing the problems……with the way politics drives (and has long driven) currency debasement, and how currency debauchery eventually leads to currency collapse. They get a lot of things right.
But on their solution…just buy gold and silver (and one would assume they would be glad to sell you some of theirs, at a modest premium)…I don’t think they make a compelling argument that this strategy is the only one that might work in a currency crisis….or that it’s even the best one.
186 pages on what’s wrong…..all of which I agree is true…..but then no real compelling evidence that I can see that hoarding gold and silver bullion is going to work out for me and save my bacon in most scenarios I can dream up……ones that might actually happen. I see only one instance where gold is really a stellar asset. That is the day the dollar actually dies. On all other days leading up to that one, it has the potential to be a stranded asset.
I think buying another tangible asset, one that is actually favored by central banks and governments…..and rewarded with superior tax advantages, while gold is onerously taxed, makes good sense. Especially if it can be had with fairly low risk leverage of better than 5:1.
Inflation as a policy decision…..which is what we have had over the past many years, has made judicious use of cheap borrowed money to buy assets with cash flow and real (not just nominal) gains…… a real wealth-builder.
Stacking gold is saving money….which is wealth by addition. Buying cash flow RE with 30 year locked-in cheap money…that’s a wealth multiplier.
I’d point put that central bankers have a vested interest in using their almost unlimited power to suppress bullion prices, which can be easily accomplished in a world where the spot price is set by a market with more than 100:1 leverage…and the Fed can print unlimited money to keep their agents solvent.
I don’t think too many goldbugs understand how the digital age has changed everything either .
There is a new endgame coming, and it isn’t going to be like the endgame for the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. It will involve sovereign cryptos, central bank cryptos, currency controls, negative interest rates, and a whole lot more financial repression than we have now, which is considerable.
It will involve UBI, global taxing of successful corporations, wealth taxes on billionaires (small ones at first) and complete transparency (to the Deep State, anyway) of all our financial transactions, no matter how small.
The goal is not going to be to save the dollar…the goal is for the world banking cartel to stay in business and to force the rest of us to keep playing their game.
All sensible, thanks for sharing.
I’d buy a house if I had the cash and prices weren’t skyrocketing right now. A 900 sq ft house around the corner from us flipped from 265k to a remodeled 360k asking price, then immediately sold for 390k. It’s the joke of the neighborhood. If there’s a big sell off in RE I might buy something, but if not then not.
I expect UBI and a wealth tax in time, too, as well as rapid property tax increases. All of this overspending while growth stays low will lead to taxation of one form or another. Question for you since I gather you’ve studied crypto: a wealth tax could be applied to Bitcoin, right, because transactions are traceable to wallets, and most wallets will be traceable to tax ID’s, do I have that right?
Apparently governments CAN put names on most bitcoin wallets if they want to bad enough. Maybe not in all cases. It’s much easier to trace the money going INTO any crypto….especially if it comes from a bank account or gets purchased with a credit card. The Chinese were using pre-paid gift cards for a while as a work-around.
In the US one way they are tightening up provenance is that they have made it hard to buy on foreign exchanges…..you can now only do that by lying about your citizenship and using a VPN. The exchanges themselves have thrown self-identified Americans off, because they are afraid of getting in trouble with US security laws. I got thrown off several myself.
If you buy on Coinbase or some other US based exchange, they gotcha, no problem.
Most btc is owned by Chinese miners and this bunch of libertarian early adopters
Maybe some of them still have anonymity. Now, the btc billionaires who give the finger to the IRS are beginning to use Monero, which is untraceable. There are others, but it’s the new favorite private coin. I expect all those to be made illegal at some point.
Thank you for the explanation. … My son still wants us to buy 1 monero in one wallet and then send it to another wallet, so that it will be untraceable, but we couldn’t decide on which android app to trust so didn’t get very far, ha!
Ordered the book yesterday and it’s already here. No wonder Amazon owns online book sales….starting it now….
The gold trade will be famous not so much for profiting on the currency collapse, but on being the longest trade in history. I know people who have been camping on gold stocks for 20+ years now.
How is that big bad storm in west?
Will see if its available as an e-book. The petrodollar is getting long in the tooth and the Central Banks of the world have done a fine job of mucking things up and the general public is becoming aware of their games. Trump has forced the Democratic party a bit to the left for fear of another partially unhinged populist getting elected president, a better safety net is a good thing. The horrible waste of the US drug war is winding down freeing up a massive amount of resources. A rising China is actually good for us. They will be an even better compeditor than the USSR. The dumb military misadventures have to go, conversly they keep our military in practice(shudder). We have to get our internal transportation, housing, medical, and education costs down if we are going to compete in a globalized world order. I think the US is a long way from down and out but we have some extremely serious issues we have been ignoring.
Greetings from Death Valley – I have been on the road all day
Headed out tonight for milky way images – Milky way does not rise until 3:00 AM – Ugh I am tired – Taking a nap and getting up in a few hours
Hope you got the celestial shots you were hoping for…….I decided to book a trip to Colorado to get in a little ski time after this snow dump….. and make the missus happy. At 67 she would still rather ski than just about any other activity I could name. She works so hard….she deserves a vacation.
Another inflation anecdote……Lift tickets at Steamboat are now $219/day. I seem to remember that the first time I skied there 40 years ago the tickets were $60…which seemed high at the time.
So…..a $159 increase over 40 years…..gives an inflation rate 3.97%
We now have a warmonger party in charge that wants to summon up trillions more USD. And open the southern border. Biden will go down as the worst president ever. Mark my words.
I basically agree, but Kamala is likely to be serving as president for the better part of this 4-year term. The history books may regard it as the Kamala presidency.
What the US needs to do is to talk honestly with its allies that have the same ideals that the US supposedly has. This would include Western Europe and Japan. With ten years of preparation Germany and Japan could establish some type of armed forces (they really were encouraged not to do so by the US and others due to what happened in WWII), other countries such as France, UK, and Italy could increase military spending, and we would have enough forces to put together a coalition against either China or Russia. Remember that neither have a military that can project itself anywhere. But it is hard to admit that your days as #1 are gone. With the double whammy of being the reserve currency and supporting an armed forces that can “win” over the rest of the armed forces of the world combined, it is no wonder we are an economic loser.
Right now if the US takes a huge hit economically or militarily, most countries of the world may actually applaud because they have been bombed and bullied by the US for so long.
There is no threat Russia and/or China are going to launch invasion’s. We have thousands of nuclear warheads to prevent that. Our military exists to make money for defense contractors. Not to defend the free world.
and where to fly with ones gold? Libertarians Want to Make New Hampshire a Flying Car Mecca link to bloomberg.com
A short 5 hour listen, will do, thanks for the review. Trying to do half as well as my wife who is reading or listening to 52 books this year.
Okay, I’ll read it and get back to you.
In general, I’ve moved to the camp that says when the empire fades the US will still be in better shape than most places, and that the end of the money drain for being the world’s policeman will be of benefit to ordinary people, who have carried the big expense on their backs this whole time.
Does anyone in the US have the leadership skills necessary to handle a transition that can only be delayed, not stopped? Doubtful.
Dollar, military hegemony, industrial power. Britain went through its change over a period around 1910-1969 approx and it might said is still evolving. The move of Hong Kong to Chinese control in the 1990’s.
Top dog to just another runner, a small one at that.
Losing the ability to defend Taiwan could be a turning point, China being the catalyst to realise there is no going back to the old order.