Boris Johnson Loses Majority, So What?
This morning, MP Phlillip Lee quit the Tory Party and joined the Liberal Democrats.
News reports made a big deal out of this because Boris Johnson lost his majority in parliament. However, the move is meaningless.
Why?
Tonight there will be a vote on legislation to stop No Deal. As many as 20 Tory rebels will vote against the government. They will be outed from the party and most will lose their seats in the next election.
Emergency Legislation
Commons Speaker John Bercow agreed to allow an emergency debate under “SO24 procedures”.
The proposed legislation by Hillary Benn, the Shadow (opposition) Brexit Secretary, seeks to halt No Deal by forcing Boris Johnson to ask the EU for an extension until January 31, 2020, and further accept any extension requests the EU offers.
Theoretically, the legislation could keep the UK trapped in a customs union forever.
Boris Johnson’s Reply
Yesterday a bill was published – a bill that the leader of the opposition has spent all summer working on.
This is not a bill in any normal sense of the word. It is without precedent in our history – it is a bill that, if passed, would force me to go to Brussels and beg an extension. It would force me to accept any terms offered. It would destroy any chance of negotiations or a new deal. And indeed it would enable our friends in Brussels to dictate the terms of the negotiation, that is what it does.
There is only one way to describe this bill – it is Jeremy Corbyn’s surrender bill. It means running up the white flag.
I want to make clear to everybody in this house – there are no circumstances in which I will ever accept anything like it. I will never surrender the control of the negotiations in the way the leader of the opposition is demanding.
We promised the people we would get Brexit done. We promised to respect the result of the referendum and we must do so now. Enough is enough. This country wants this done. They want the referendum respected. We are negotiating a deal and though I am confident of getting a deal we will leave on 31 October in all circumstances. There will be no further pointless delay.
This house has never before voted to force the prime minister to surrender such a crucial decision to the discretion of our friends and neighbours overseas.
What is this bill would mean is that unless we agree to the terms of our friends and partners they would be able to keep us in the EU for as long as they want and on their terms. I urge therefore this house to reject this bill tonight so that we can get the right deal for our country, deliver Brexit and take the whole country forward.
Emergency Legislation Rules
If Commons (the lower house of Parliament) passes the bill, it still has to pass the House of Lords where it is subject to filibuster.
Let’s pick up the discussion with Guardian Live.
If the SO24 motion gets passed by the Commons later, MPs will get the chance to pass all stages of the Benn bill tomorrow. It will then go to the House of Lords.
Normally there are no time limits on debates in the Lords. Peers do not use programme motions, which are used in the Commons to curtail debates so that bills complete all their stages by a particular time. This led to fears that pro-Brexit peers might filibuster the bill, so that it fails to clear the Lords before prorogation. But Angela Smith, the Labour leader in the Lords, has tabled a motion to be debated tomorrow that would ensure that all stages of the Benn bill must be completed by 5pm on Friday.
There had been talk of peers sitting over the weekend to deal with the bill, but this motion would kill off that prospect. The Benn bill would then go back to the Commons on Monday, when MPs would debate any Lords amendment.
The Smith motion has the support of the Lib Dems, which means it is very likely to get through because there is no Conservative majority in the Lords.
Johnson Still Has Options
Assume the bill passes the House of Lords in time.
Is that the end of it?
Not quite as Eurointelligence explains.
Let’s assume the rebels win tonight and that parliament resists elections. What then?
- The draft bill compels the prime minister to write a letter to the European Council asking for a three-month extension if no alternative deal is on the table. If the European Council suggests an extension, Johnson would have to accept whatever they offer. The drafters of the bill believe that their legislation is water-right – an assertion we disagree with.
- This is what could happen: Johnson might simply not comply with the law. He probably has a greater incentive to go to jail than to fold on this point. As we are gaming this particular scenario, we find that the devices to be deployed are becoming progressively more extreme, but they exist. For starters, Johnson could delay Royal Assent to the extension bill until prorogation kicks in. At that point, all unfinished legislation would expire.
- If he chooses not to go down that road, he could frustrate a positive EU response to his letter, simply by threatening to veto all EU business – from the continuation of Russian sanctions all the way to the EU budget. He could also take the view that the bill is null and avoid as it does not address the EU’s demand from April that the UK must show a way forward as a condition for extension. The bill does not do that.
- We think that the otherwise formidable David Allen Green is unusually complacent when he argues that the Commons could simply circumvent the prime minister by getting the UK representation in Brussels to write that letter. The trouble is that there is nothing to stop Johnson closing down UKRep.
- And, if this were not extreme enough, there is still the theoretical possibility that Johnson could enlist the help of a friendly government, like Hungary’s. We don’t think he will go down that road. Imagine the double humiliation of having to eat your words and write that letter in the first place, and then to be rescued by a knight in shining armour in the form of Viktor Orbán.
Delay Royal Assent
In regards to point number two, all Johnson has to do is delay until September 10.
Starting September 10, Parliament Will Be Suspended Until October 14, by the Queen’s order (at the request of Johnson).
The Remainers would then try again on October 14, but Johnson would then go with option 3, 4, or 5 above.
One of my readers pointed out the possibility that Johnson could ask for an extension, then veto it himself. Extension requests must be unanimous.
There are many ways Johnson can thwart parliament if he chooses to do so, and all indications are that he will do just that.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The remainers want no Brexit at all, and if they do have to leave they want a deal in which you can’t tell the UK is no longer in the EU. So, they are the ones that blocked every attempt at any deal because by their math that leaves a no deal Brexit which would be politically and socially unacceptable to the people.
I am pretty sure that some of the people who voted for Brexit regretted their decision, but also as sure that many who voted against leaving now see the wisdom of it as both the EU and left have done everything they can imagine to stop the will of the people. Let’s have a snap election on October 15 as I read today that Johnson is calling for, I am pretty sure that it will be worse for the left than they are betting.
And Mish, just as you called it (or was it someone else here?) Chancellor Javid announced today that he is turning the page on austerity, so the people will not have to fear a hard Brexit nor the Tory government.
Why should leaving the EU require a higher threshold than it takes to stay in…LET ALONE JOIN, on which there was never a vote?
Perhaps the 1975 vote should have required a super majority too. My point is a practical one. When opinion is severely divided on an important issue which requires international negotiations it is impossible to have effective negotiations since your domestic opposition will undermine your positions. The reality is that the opposition to Brexit is so large and effective that it effectively makes it impossible to carry out an effective Brexit, and raises the costs of doing so enormously. All the uncertainty caused by the parliamentary fights have hurt UK business far more than EU membership does, and the domestic fights are FAR from over.
Robert Peston on Spectator gets it.
A) gov accepts delay.
B) calls election with repeal of delay in manifesto stated clearly for electorate.
C) if wins majority gov repeals before Oct.31st.
D) lords can’t intervene on repeal as it’s in manifesto put to electorate.
I don’t profess to know what is for the best.
It is like a 3rd Brexit vote if you think 2017 was equivalent to a 2nd.
This time more clearly down to the individual MP level and their Brexit credentials.
Bercow is toast. It will change the complexion of Parliament and I suspect it will be a convincing majority for one side or the other.
Bercow knows he’s finished.
Already not happening. Johnson wants a VONC.
Read up on it., gloves off.
20+ Tory MPs just kicked out = Gov defeat.tomorrow.
Election as Corbyn has said prepared to fight it.
No, no GE on the liars terms.
Wait and see. As for lying, they all do.
Clegg (students). Cameron (sticking to result.of Referendum). Blair, and the Americans too – Clinton, Trump and whoever’s said.no.new taxes etc.
All MPs lie, that’s how they get there.
Steve Barclay may be one exception.
The problem for the liar is that he is such a blatant liar that nobody with any sense believes him. As to your general point, of course most politicians are liars but they retain a veneer of integrity. The liar is just so bad at it and he has been bad at it for so long that it is painful to look at.
In other words he, ,’s more transparent? A less professional liar.
What alternative is there to an election and one Parliament has forced to happen?
In effect the 3rd vote on Brexit and this time fought along full Brexit lines for Parliament seats and not a Referendum or a vote for a Remain leaning Tory party as in 2017.
Interesting that Corbyn would make the UK a vassal state of the EU, with no representation. Traitors should be hanged. There is a greater force at work here.
No surprise. Photos of him with enemies of UK/GB.
He’s some sort of Marxist.
No joke.
The UK has more sovereignty within the EU than without.
?
Sounds like doublespeak.
Please explain how the UK and more sovereignty under the thumb of he EU? Is this like slaves are free because they have no responsibility?
You will get good odds for a good reason
Johnson has just announced a VONC. Now it gets really interesting.
Bercow is toast. Decision made to fight his seat vs him. Convention is his position sees no electoral opposition.
Election likely. Rallying point will now be People vs Parliament.
Take back Parliament.
“Johnson is Prime Minister so long as he commands the confidence of the House. If there is a VONC then you can guarantee that there will be an administration ready to take office the same day. The 14 days are irrelevant. “
You are really losing it. Parliament will come back on Oct 14.
That leaves 3 days only that Boris will have to fight.
I’ll let you into a secret. The liar is not going to get his GE. More roasting and humiliation on the spit for him.
If the bill is passed through the lords on friday evening and No.10 delays/refuses royal assent is there enough time to table a VONC before Sep.9?
Further how long do mp’s have control of business within the commons? Will the government have control of business again by monday?
Anyone wanting to stay in the EU with its inane rules and regulations is not thinking clearly.
In regards to Johnson being forced to stand down, the law is not clear according to Eurointelligence.
They would have to amend it. Even then, what if he doesn’t.
He could just wait for elections or more likely Nov 1.
Once again, Avid does not understand the law and the options Johnson has. He also presumes he knows more than Johnson’s legal team which set these dates.
This just further illustrates the insanity of choosing to leave the EU with such a divided national opinion. It’s impossible to negotiate, or even re-tool the economy, when one of your hands is actively fighting the other. The referendum should have required a super majority to take effect.
Well that’s two votes for “great analysis” and one for me being “daft”
We will only know if your analysis was insightful or daft in retrospect. So far, though, as the Brexit fiasco as proceeded, you have been right most of the time.
Great analysis. It’s hard to keep up with what is happening and what it might mean.
Amazing how little respect governments have for desires of the people they are supposed to represent. Governments seem to be working together against their people and for themselves. The governments have the support of the press so maybe “democracy dies in the media”.
“Mish, you are doubling down on daftness here. Johnson is already in a minority in parliament. If he loses 20 more MPs then that is the end of him.”
Avid – you clearly do not know what’s going on. Assume Johnson lost his majority by 20 MPs. So what? He is still PM until the next election, which by the way, he is highly likely to win.
They can force him out in a motion of no confidence, but then there will be elections and Johnson sets the date. Try Oct 31.
Of course, the MPs can attempt to put in a caretaker government, but it has to succeed and it takes 14 days.
Johnson may have made a mistake by option for October 14, but I suspect his legal team knows what he is doing.
If Johnson refuses to stand down for 4 days (Nov 1), and refuses to ask for an extension, guess what happens?
Can anyone force Johnson to resign? How so?
Constitutional crisis? Perhaps
Johnson is Prime Minister so long as he commands the confidence of the House. If there is a VONC then you can guarantee that there will be an administration ready to take office the same day. The 14 days are irrelevant. The attempts to form an alternative administration took giant steps today. The liar was pathetic and Rees-Mogg did his best, and succeeded in antagonising rebel Tories. One of the highlights of today’s debate was Philip Lee crossing the floor while the liar was speaking. It made the liar look a right prat.
Lee swapping is no surprise. On borrowed time in his constituency.
Eat it up baby
Let’s see.
This is terrific! First time a country breaks free of the evil empire. So exciting! I really like your reporting. It is absolutely top notch.
Agreed. Just stumbled onto this blog and Mish’s stuff is excellent. Clear, insightful, original, fun.
This is such a ridiculous charade. Sick of it…
Mish, you are doubling down on daftness here. Johnson is already in a minority in parliament. If he loses 20 more MPs then that is the end of him. The prospect of the liar blundering about in Europe will not be allowed. Put some money on a Corbyn coalition in power within the month. You will get good odds.
That is not at all right, Tory + Brexit party = 50% and that is not a minority party. Those 20 rebel Tories will be replaced with people who will tow the party line, if they do not vote properly today.
Walking out the door has always been the preferred solution. All this infighting does occupy politicians and the press, and masked the real problems that need to be addressed.
All things which increase the dependence on, and importance and influence of, politicians, are bad things by definition.
Bang on!!
I fail to see how winning at all cost is good for the UK. I guess Boris and Brexiters want to get tired at winning too!
Those most singlemindedly focused on nothing whatsoever beyond simply winning, win. Wasting time, effort and resources on such outcome irrelevant trivia as trying to do something “good,” simply guarantees you’ll never get into a position to do anything at all.
It’s the same mechanism which guarantee all societies beyond the size of tribes, are doomed to be stuck with nothing but me-first scumbags in all and every contested position of leadership. Nice guys always finish last.
Get back to me when the UK splits…
Yep, it seems the bigger the organization the bigger the scumbags at the top.
Winning at all costs? Isn’t he simply executing the will of the people? It’s called democracy, just in case you weren’t aware.
You forget that once in a position these people forget who put them there and what for.
Like I said don’t have a pony in this race. My prediction is that a no deal Brexit without addressing the border with Ireland breaks the UK. So there you are winning!