Brexit Irony
When Theresa May first started negotiating Brexit, Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, suggested a Northern Ireland Backstop.
Theresa May how to reject that idea because she needed 9 DUP MPs to hold her fragile coalition together.
Brexit Basics
BBC Brexit Basics shows a NI solution is what the EU originally proposed.
A Northern Ireland only backstop? This is what the EU originally proposed.
It would involve Northern Ireland alone remaining in the EU’s single market and customs union, leaving Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) free to strike trade deals.
But the DUP – a Northern Ireland unionist party that propped up Theresa May’s minority Conservative government – objected to this.
Idea Revived
Boris Johnson revived the idea, somehow getting DUP on board, but now the EU seems united against its own idea.
Barnier Objects
I updated @Europarl_EN & EU27 on #UK’s proposals. EU wants a Withdrawal Agreement w/ workable and effective solutions that create legal and practical certainty now. We owe this to peace & stability on the island of Ireland. We must protect consumers & businesses in the EU market.
— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) October 3, 2019
Brexit latest: Michel Barnier has told EU27 ambassadors it is “difficult” to see a deal emerging in the next ten days unless the British “fundamentally amend their position”.
1.— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) October 3, 2019
European Commission Objects
“This solution must meet all the objectives of the #backstop: preventing a hard border, preserving North-South cooperation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU’s Single Market and Ireland’s place in it.”
— EU Delegation UK (@EUdelegationUK) October 3, 2019
Placing the Blame
The Guardian Live once again has a good synopsis.
The DUP has accused the Irish government of being “obstructionist and intransigent”. This is from the DUP leader Arlene Foster, commenting on what Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy premier and foreign minister, said earlier about the Brexit deal being unacceptable in its current form.
“The Irish government’s preparedness to dump the consent principle for their country’s expediency is foolish in the extreme and sends a very clear message to unionists.”
Donald Tusk, European Council President
Today I had two phone calls on #Brexit, first with Dublin then with London.
My message to Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar: We stand fully behind Ireland.
My message to PM @BorisJohnson: We remain open but still unconvinced.— Charles Michel (@eucopresident) October 3, 2019
Tusk is “Open but Unconvinced“.
What’s Going On?
- Bluff by Ireland?
- Bluff by EU?
- Irish Intransigence?
- EU Intransigence?
- All of the Above?
Note the one missing ingredient: UK Intransigence.
Despite appearances, I do not think it is number 4. My guess is 1, 2, and possibly 3.
Odds of Deal
Yesterday, I noted On the Verge of a Brexit Breakthrough.
I see no reason to change that view.
The important point is not the seemingly major disagreements but rather the fact there are are major negotiations underway.
A bluff by Ireland and the EU are highly likely. The alternative is Irish Intransigence, EU Intransigence, or both.
I rule out EU Intransigence on the grounds that the EU will go along if Ireland does.
Key Point
DUP: “The flippant Dublin reaction to the Prime Minister’s proposals has also exposed the reality that the Irish government would never have consented to the United Kingdom leaving the backstop if it had been implemented.”
— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) October 3, 2019
“The flippant Dublin reaction to the Prime Minister’s proposals has also exposed the reality that the Irish government would never have consented to the United Kingdom leaving the backstop if it had been implemented.”
Admitting the Trap
“It’s very clear that the Irish Govt are not interested in having an alternative to the Backstop and it actually exposes the fact that the Backstop was a trap. They had never any intention of allowing us to leave the Backstop and that’s what has been shown today” @DUPleader pic.twitter.com/d4SI20lxR2
— #StandUp4Brexit (@StandUp4Brexit) October 3, 2019
Majority in UK Parliament on Board
Boris Johnson has achieved something everyone thought impossible:
A Majority!
- DUP is on board
- Rebel Labour MPs on board
- Hard Brexiteers on board
- Most Tories on board
All Aboard
Steve Baker, the chair of the European Research Group, which represents Tories pushing for a harder Brexit, and one of the 28 “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal on every occasion, tells Johnson: “We now glimpse the possibility of a tolerable deal.”
Johnson says he welcomes that coming from Baker, although he says the two have spoken regularly in recent days, and so, he implies, he is not surprised to have Baker’s support.
That’s pretty amazing actually. And note this.
Northern Ireland’s chief constable, Simon Byrne, has said that his officers will not staff any form of border security after Brexit. At a meeting of the Northern Ireland Policing Board earlier, Byrne said he had “made it clear” to the Northern Ireland Office that police would not “staff any form of border security” after the UK leaves the EU.
If Ireland or the EU sink this deal, the most likely consequence is No Deal.
Polls show that Johnson will clobber Jeremy Corbyn in an election. Heck, the Liberal Democrats might even become the opposition leader.
The EU has to understand this.
Excellent Eleven-Tweet Chain on a Landing Zone
Boris Johnson is right to call his proposal a “broad landing zone in which … a deal can begin to take shape.” As such, it is politically astute. If you accept the premise that the UK is leaving the EU single market and customs union, the proposal is also logical. 1/
— Andrew Duff (@AndrewDuffEU) October 2, 2019
Conclusion” The goal is a decent UK-EU working partnership with peace and legitimacy for Ireland, North and South.”
Duff adds in a second Tweet “Johnson is frank about turning away from May’s agreement. In these circs, what works for Ireland that is better than no deal ?”
May’s Deal
It is clear that May’s deal was better for the EU than Johnson’s deal. But it can’t pass.
The choice will be between Johnson’s deal (assuming he can work one out) or no deal.
For political purposes, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats want elections. For political reasons the EU does not want the UK having a say in EU policies and procedures.
Excellent Speech by Johnson
Hand Exposed
The hand of the those allegedly wanting to stop No Deal is exposed.
- No majority for a referendum.
- No majority for elections
- No majority for a caretaker government
- No majority for Remain
Labour, the Lib Dems, and SNP say their top priority is to stop No Deal and they are against Johnson doing just that!
WTF?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
WSJ has a good visual map on the potential answers some of you might like: link to wsj.com
Hope you like it, it may be a good reference point for those having trouble summing up the various options.
Thanks!
leave, and leave the d@mn border open. see what happens to the eu’s precious tariff and regulatory trade barriers then. sure to boost the irish economy.
BOJO is going to ask for extension . A very surprising thing is that@avidremainer has not posted anything yet.
See my comment of 5 hrs ago. As Hamlet would say ” Buzz buzz”.
Mish, I understand that you are against a bureaucratic and socialist institution (read: politburo) like the EU, but what I don’t understand is why you cling onto this wishful thinking idea that Brexit and BoJo’s ‘3-D chess’ (like Trump’s ill conceived trade war) is going to be such a grand succes…
From Ireland’s perspective a no deal scenario is far better than any kind of deal which results in northern Ireland actually leaving the EU.
A no deal outcome would result in some short term economic pain but it would likely result in the break-up of the UK and a unification of Ireland. This is an outcome Ireland is willing to accept a little pain over.
Polls in northern Ireland are increasingly anti-Brexit, and it wouldn’t take much more to create a 51% majority unification vote in northern Ireland.
Mish, your first line in this post re-writes history. Mrs May first proposed an all Ireland backstop, the EU accepted and the deal was ready to sign. The DUP then told May the deal was unacceptable and so it was back to the negotiating table. Government lawyers have just given assurances in the Scottish courts that if the liar cannot get a deal then he will sign the letter and ask for an extension. No dying in the ditch just meek submission to the law. The liar has form for this. He promised his constituents at the last GE that he would vote against the proposed new runway at Heathrow. Come the vote he buggered off to Afghanistan, thus not voting against, leaving his constituents fuming.
By the way, the new proposal would create a fantastic new entity in Northern Ireland where the regulations of Brussels and the customs regime of London apply simultaneously. Economic black hole.
That is the cherry on top of the ignored peace agreement.
Mish, I fear that you are reading some news outlets with agenda and then just copy pasting their spin of events…
What EU and Ireland always wanted – and what UK claimed to want as well but clearly didn’t mean it – is to have no land border in Ireland. That is what backstop always tried to guarantee. Latest proposal from UK would have land border appear in Ireland, because the proposal does not include full participation of NI in Single Market. Boris himself acknowledged that customs checks will be required on land. “Custom checks” are just that – a border.
In fact, latest proposal’s moniker is “two borders for four years” – have you not seen that at all? it was all over the news…
Two! freaking borders.
The backstop was forever. Johnson wants 4 years at a time, and to let dup decide every 4 years. That’s the difference and that’s why Ireland doesn’t want it.
The DUP speak for a minority in Ulster. If the Assembly were up and running the Unionists would be in a minority. DUP+UU+TUV are outnumbered by remainers ie Sinn Fein+SDLP+Alliance+Independent Socialists. A vote every four years becomes a re-unification referendum in the North. Sadly the liar has laboured mightily and brought forth a turd.
It is not the same proposal as the NI-only backstop. BoJo suggests a customs border inside of Ireland (presumably without any border infrastructure 🙂 ). Northern Ireland would not remain in the customs union.
The DUP and the ERG can support this proposal as much as they want because they know the EU won’t. Who is bluffing then?
I think there is a fundamental difference in the original EU proposal and Johnson’s current plan and that is in the factor time. Johnson’s proposal sees NI leave after 4 years, so essentially postpones the problem. No Deal doens’t just let all the problems on Ireland disappear. Even at No Deal they will still have to be dealt with. That’s why I am so surprised that people would actively promote No Deal. Purely from a trade negotiation POV it makes sense, but it disregards a whole lot of poiltical and cultural issues.
The more they offer to the EU, the more they demand. They just wang to “punish” the UK so bad nobody else will ever think about leasing the EU. It has worked with Italy. The UK shouldn’t be torn into pieces just to satisfy unelected bureaucrats. The don’t care about Irisn consumers or businesses, they just want to build a big, fat empire with their own army.
A caretaker government could potentially last a long time but only if Corbyn agrees to stand aside and the EU allows it.
Those are a couple of big ifs, but possible.
Remainers are so splintered Johnson and Lib Dems want an election. Johnson to win it, Lib Dems and J both to finally get rid of Corbyn.
Lib Dems have a key role here: Stop Corbyn from becoming PM even as a caretaker.
Corbyn was really pissed the other day when Swinson would not agree (for the 3rd time) to allow Corbyn to become caretaker.
Hell of a lot of moving pieces here!
Of course they are going to reject it, and probably anything he proposes now, because he has now said that he’ll ask for an extension on the 19th if there’s no deal (link to rte.ie). So they now have zero incentive to agree to anything unfortunately. (posting this as a reply because for some reason I don’t have the option to comment on the article).
Boris has a big decision to make here. If I were advising him I would say dont sign it, unless he has watertight intelligence that someone in the EU is going to do the UK a favour and reject that extension proposal.
If he writes the letter after previously saying he wont, then he loses a huge amount of his supporters and will gain none. If he doesnt write the request, then what will happen exactly? Will he go to jail? Will the EU make a martyr out of him? If they strike him down he will become more powerful than they can imagine. This is the route that he should take.
Had to chuckle at the Star Wars reference…. If they strike him down he will become more powerful than they can imagine…
You can’t win, Vader. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
Obi-Wan Kenobi
The way I see it, the damage is done now. The issue is that there can be real, good-faith negotiation if and only if each party believes that the other can (and will) walk away if they aren’t satisfied. Once one side knows that the other can’t (or won’t) walk away, there’s no pressure on them to agree to anything.
I would not read too much into it. The legal text submitted on his behalf is only acknowledgement of what the law says he should do. It does not cut either way as it is only recognition of his status under present circumstance. Any attempt to seal and command future authority over a person, one that they do not and cannot have, is just sad to watch. That said, I have no idea what BJ will do.
Of course DUP now agrees- they no longer hold any leverage since Parliament went pear shaped in early September.
I have to hand to Johnson, though- with all the neysayers saying he was bamboozled, he now has the upper hand over the EU and the Remainers, and all of this without a backing in Parliament.
The Remainers now face a grim choice- give up, or do a VONC and replace Johnson. I now think a VONC might well fail if tabled, and not because some want an election at a certain time, but because there is no longer a Remain majority in Parliament. Polls have a way of concentrating a MP’s mind.
No Mish. The real problem is the UK has been posturing and politicking the entire time. Johson’s proposal was the first proposals the Brits came with in 10 weeks! The EU welcomes any sign of initiative and diligence on the part of the UK. But instead of ironing out workable proposals and legislation, the whole Brexit shit show has been for media effect and domestic political consumption.
The whole notion that this is all about brinkmanship, bluffing, ultimatums, forcing the other side’s hand, manipulation, stand-offs and shifting blame is like labor contract negotiations in the Anglo-Saxon world, where every proposition is approached in terms of who loses worst and forcing the other party. What has not been happening is the nitty gritty of coming up with workable proposals than can be turned into legislation, counter proposals, discussion, clarification, compromise, and inching ahead to an agreement that both sides can live with. Instead we have seen declarations of intention, vague suggestions, and especially posturing.
In today’s financial news:
“AS THEY FLEE’
‘Huge, bloated, squealing oinkers running amok in the fields devouring everything in sight just as a massive cloud of mutated, carnivorous, ravenous pork chomping locusts descends upon them.’
To be reenacted and filmed in the streets of major financial districts everywhere, by homeless actors in donated business suits, drones, and some computer assistance for more gushing realism as they flee screaming, while being eaten away alive!
The footage will be priceless!
Sharknado move over!
I am donating this blockbuster concept, and all my royalties, for the greatest box office hit EVER made, to the feudal Lords and Ladies of Hollywood, in the certainty that they will in turn be generous to the many eager artists who will make it come to life!
‘Nuff said. Now let’s get to work!
Please feel free to reply for technical advice. S.
Boris Johnson only gets more popular among the populace by presenting to parliament a withdrawal agreement that solves the key problem with May’s withdrawal agreement. This agreement lets the UK reclaim its sovereignty, the right to decide its own laws rather than being forced to kneel before its EU masters and beg for mercy.
Play tell where have the EU loosed the dogs on the people of the UK?
Open your eyes, man! The dogs are barking at you now! Without sovereignty, the UK is just an EU colony.
“England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals are ashamed of their own nationality.” George Orwell
The Uk is a fully sovereign country now, it will remain so in the future. Could you tell me when the EU police loosed dogs on us?