Ten Brexit Facts
- In the referendum, a majority of UK citizens voted to leave the EU.
- The default legal position, subject to change, is that the UK will leave the EU on October 31, 2019.
- It is not within the power of the UK parliament to change point number 1.
- It is not within the power of the Queen to change point number 1.
- The not the legal right of the EU to grant an extension request from UK parliament, by the Queen, or on its own behalf.
- The October 31 date is subject to change, but only at the request of the UK prime minister, and then only if all 27 nations in the EU agree.
- The window of opportunity for the UK parliament to force elections is September 3 through September 11 at maximum.
- It is an option of the next prime minister to prorogue (suspend) parliament long enough to rule out new elections
- The prediction that the UK would collapse immediately following the referendum was spectacularly wrong. Predictions of UK demise should there be no a No Deal Brexit are predictions, often purposely biased, not facts.
- Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, admitted on film that the Irish backstop was used as a “tactical and strategic means to apply permanent pressure on the UK.”
Facts vs Politics
Like it or not, those are the pertinent facts.
With those facts out of the way, lets turn our attention to the politics of the day as reported by the Guardian Live Blog.
Hunt: Addressing the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, Hunt says that, while it’s not his preferred option, he would take it if he didn’t think a deal was possible by 31 October – even though he acknowledges it’d destroy people’s livelihoods. “I think there is a deal that can unite all wings of the Conservative party and our friends in the DUP. But it’s got to be different to Theresa May’s deal.”
Johnson: Boris Johnson has pledged that the UK will leave the European Union on 31 October “do or die”, as he promised to push for a no-deal Brexit if this was needed to meet the departure deadline. “But I’m not going to do that if there’s a prospect of a better deal.”
Nearly Identical Positions
The amusing thing here is they are saying the same thing.
Hunt is not remotely believable.
Johnson is certainly more believable. Today he issued a challenge to Hunt.
If I become PM, we will leave the EU on 31st October, deal or no deal. Today I have asked @Jeremy_Hunt whether he will also commit to this date, no matter what. We must keep our promises to the British people and deliver Brexit – no ifs, no buts, and no second referendum. pic.twitter.com/YgRSfESSFY
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) June 25, 2019
WTO Article 24 Legal Authority
Article 24 pertains to the right of countries to abolish WTO tariffs on condition that both counties agree and both countries set a timeline for reaching a deal. They have 10 years to finalize the deal.
This letter in the Telegraph has undisputed legal authority. It demolishes the mischief-making which has been generated over Article 24 of the GATT agreement. pic.twitter.com/WCrz0JHuHM
— Bill Cash (@BillCashMP) June 25, 2019
Johnson stated today: “Gatt article 24 paragraph males it perfectly clear that two countries that are in the process of beginning a free trade agreement may protract their existing arrangements until such time as they have completed any free trade agreement. And that’s a very hopeful prospect. That is the way forward.”
Please add that to the fact list.
Germany Running Scared
This is my opinion, but Germany is running scared, very scared.
Please consider the Guardian report Germany ‘will talk to the last hour’ to avoid no-deal Brexit.
Germany will fight to the last hour to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal and is willing to hear any fresh ideas for the Irish border backstop, the country’s ambassador to the UK has said.
Speaking at a car manufacturers’ summit in London, Peter Wittig said Germany cherished its relationship with the UK and was ready to talk about solutions the new prime minister might have for the Irish border problem.
“My country is ready to talk and the chancellor [Angela Merkel] once said she would be willing to talk to the last hour not to have a no-deal scenario,” he said.
“It’s a mindset. We are not giving up in achieving an orderly Brexit. Germany has been a very pragmatic voice in this whole tortuous Brexit process and we will continue to be that.
“Even if we have a short window while the new prime minister is in place, we will welcome any idea how to solve that famous backstop issue and we will be willing to work towards a negotiated deal which is long term the only viable and sensible option for Europe,” he added.
“Our mindset is to explore all pathways to come to a negotiated deal.”
Mindset
Is that believable?
Of course it is. Germany is scared to death its vaunted export machine is about to collapse.
I wrote about that earlier today in Rise of the Greens = Deindustrialization of Germany.
Five Events
- Merkel foolishly did in nuclear to appease the Greens
- The German Car industry lied about diesel. The Greens stepped in and killed it.
- The Greens will kill coal.
- Brexit will hurt German exports no matter what happens now.
- Trump tariffs on German cars are likely to be the topper.
Point number four is in serious play. The German trade surplus with the UK and the rest of the world is huge.
Permanent Pressure
Let’s return to point 10 at the top: Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, admitted on film that the Irish backstop was used as a “tactical and strategic means to apply permanent pressure on the UK.”
Please see Let’s Discuss Brexit (and How the EU Bragged, on Film, About Screwing the UK) for proof, not allegations.
Credibility in Play
Theresa May repeated many times “No deal is better than a bad deal”. It was a lie the UK never believed.
Johnson, unlike Hunt, appears to be serious.
The EU will play as a patsy anyone who is not serious about leaving.
Power is Johnson’s
The power is in Johnson’s hands.
If he really is willing to leave the EU, there is enormous pressure on the EU to bend.
Lies Revisited
Think about all the lies the EU made and Remainers made about instant collapse of the UK if the vote was leave.
It didn’t happen.
What If?
What if, as I suspect, there is far greater damage to the EU than the UK because of an EU collapse in exports on a hard Brexit.
This has to be on their minds.
Worst EU Fear
The EU’s worst fear has to be that if the UK walks, that it is the EU, not the UK that takes the bigger hit.
Pressure? You bet.
All Johnson needs to do is stand his ground.
Correction
I misread the Tweet by Cash. It the Remainer position he blasted regarding “mischief”
Sentences removed an apologies offered to Cash.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I have see it’s the same video like this article link to moneymaven.io, so I paste the same comment
Your video, in the center of this article, you used 5 extract of video, the first 4 during less than 1 mn. And with a subject so short, you can explain all of you want and we have no sense of the video, no reason of the video, and especially without context.
But the last video, it’s a video with people speak in english, while you tell it’s probably in Bruxelles (Belgium, language : french, dutch, or german) or in Strasbourg (France 10km of Germany’s border, language : french and eventually german).
This fifth video, it’s a lie. Because I don’t think so people of UE speek in front of camera his evil plan to transform UK in what? a sextoy probably…
So I accused you Mr Shedlock to speak lies between brexit, and I understand why, it’s a simply you’re a US citizen, and for you it’s most interest to have a little 51 state who called england, than you have a big ally called UE.
You a lier, and if you want make censorship on my comment you can, but at the least you should file a complaint against me, because you manipulate british opinion for US interest.
If you file a complaint against me you should prove this video is not a lie, and this is for that, you will never press charges against me. Lier.
Johnson still has to become the PM, and he still has to be telling the truth about a No Deal Brexit. Otherwise the October deadline is just as solid as the one in March turned out to be.
Let us not forget that on one side you’ve got the UK and on the other side you’ve got 27 governments…with their own agenda.
Unfortunately, there is sufficient opposition to Brexit in the UK that enough chaos may ensure upon a no deal outcome that it becomes much harder for the economy to find its feet in the new order. Just one of the political risks is inflamed separatist movements in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. These regions were never as enthused about Brexit as England and support for secession has been growing over the last couple years. Even if Scotland (or other regions) wind up staying in the UK it is a virtual certainty that the UK is going to be rocked by secession attempts in the aftermath of a completed Brexit.
Further, the discord around Brexit is destroying the long established coalitions that have driven stable UK government. Both the Tory and Labour parties are going to be permanently weakened by Brexit, as either remain or Brexit supporting members permanently desert the parties due to feelings of betrayal. UK government is going to be far more fractious and contentious in the coming years.
While I agree with Mish that Brexit isn’t such a scary thing, the sad fact is that it is tearing huge wounds across the political and social frameworks of the UK which will result in enduring harm to both society and economic prosperity. Frankly, it’s not the leaving or staying that is the problem, it’s the acrimony and chaos that is resulting from the disagreement about the two options which is causing the most harm to the UK.
This problem does cut across party lines and IS THE QUESTION: Do we want national sovereignty or be subsumed by a supra-national government. Same question in the US with regard to open boarders, TPP, Paris, Kyoto and all the other NWO nonsense. My feeling is that the traitorous bastards should all be hanged in the public square.
The problem in the UK is that different regions have very different answers to this question of sovereignty. A majority of Scots clearly don’t feel the same about UK sovereignty as a majority of Englishmen. When the fault lines are so stark on regional lines there is a very real prospect of disunion. The English Brexiteers may well get the sovereignty they desire at the expense of losing their Scottish, Irish , possibly even Welsh countrymen.
The problem with Cash and the rest is that they demolish arguments that aren’t being made. No one has ever suggested that Art.24 (5) of the GATT is impossible to invoke. When the Brexiteers said that in a no deal Brexit we ( ie the UK ) would invoke the Article and everything would be hunky dory as if it were possible to invoke the Article unilaterally. The counter argument was put that 24 (5) could be invoked IF BOTH SIDES AGREE. The EU will not agree unless the UK agrees to maintain the Freedom of Movement of Labour (FOM) and remains within the jurisdiction of the ECJ.Exit from both the ECJ and FOM form part of the inviable red lines that Cash and his cronies support. So Mish, the UK can invokeArt.24 if Cash and crew drop their red lines. Cash is an idiot.
EU is a club of idiots if they do not agree to gatt article 24. Eu exports much more to UK than UK exports to EU.
All the evidence suggests that the idiots are on the English side
you really should proofread your posts!
UK may source agriculture products from USA rather than France. US food prices would improve the English standard of living.
Correction
I misread the Tweet by Cash. It the Remainer position he blasted regarding “mischief”
Sentences removed an apologies offered to Cash.
“Bill Cash is no REMAINER. “
Sure about that?
If so I need to make a correction
Come on Mish. Bill Cash is one of John Major’s ‘bastards’. He opposed the Maastricht Treaty twenty plus years ago and has been a sworn enemy (as all right thinking people are) of the evil EU for far longer.
I don’t read the Sun (truly!) but found this link. Good news is Richard Tice will give his salary to charity, please look at the largesse in the EU Parliament. He is not the only one reporting back these findings.
Article 24 comment.
Germany unlikely to bend.I have many EU colleagues and the anti-English sentiment has been ratcheted up. Interestingly pro-Scottish has been encouraged.
Post Brexit both Frankfurt and Paris will be working overtime to get banking business out of London and EU encouraging Scottish referendum and to join EU as a way to punish what was a predominantly English Leave vote.
Both Paris and Frankfurt have already been working overtime to get business out of London…without much success. Who in their right mind would want to move from London to work in Paris or Frankfurt?
Who in their right mind would want to move from London to work in Paris or Frankfurt?
Have you lived in any of those cities?
For a more balance take because it takes all kinds…
link to news.efinancialcareers.com
I have lived in the UK and in France and I now live in Portugal. What’s your point?
Regarding the Scots…all they have to do to get their ‘independence’ is to allow ‘the English’ south of the border to vote and they would get their wish.
Punishing a nation for leaving?
If the EU is to have any chance of being a worthwhile organisation, it has to be a coalition of the willing. If there is coercion and punishment beatings for those that dont want to join the club, then what sort of club is it exactly? I will tell you what sort of club it is, one that everyone should leave.
Well since about %48 of the voters want to remain and they are forced to exit. I would think, according, to your stated opinion UK must not be a worthwhile organisation and Northern Ireland and Scotland should leave the UK.
The decision to be in or out of the EU is a binary one. Is the nation better off if 52% or 48% is satisfied?
Of course it is 52%. Not merely just because it is the larger number, but because it means that the nation is a democratic one. Most of the 48% would be happier to accept the decision of the majority rather than accept the tyranny that most accompany forcing their view upon the majority.
I also dont quite see how your point equates to ‘punishment’ in any way. Whereas the EU is clearly working out how it can hurt the UK for wishing to be independent.
The EU has rules that the UK knew before Brexit vote. Now, they want the EU to change the rules for them. It is not punishment. it is simply applying the existing rules. Now it is clear to anyone watching that the voters were lied to by the Brexit side. I do not have a pony on this race but there is one thing I know for sure the people will come to regret Brexit. Another thing, 52% of the nation did not vote for Brexit. 72% voted and 52% of those voted to leave… I wonder how many regret not voting. Of course you can by calling again for a new vote, now that there are more facts, figure out if the people want to leave. Funny, however, every time I said that all you so for democracy say no because they already voted. I mean is like you are all for democracy but just once
There’s no end to voting. Fact is the electorate had the living daylights scared out of them by the Government in order to force a Remain result and they still voted to Leave.
If both sides had been 100% truthful, no Project Fear, no over optimistic Leave, result would most likely have been the same.
So here is the deal. Why not have a vote by country. Say Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England. Since we are oh so democratic, each country that makes u the UK can decide its destine. Moreover, lets make it even more democratic. Each country needs to get above half of the legal population to either stay or remain. In other words if half of Scotland votes to stay then they stay and England leaves. Now wouldn’t that be very democratic…
Just as the EU has rules so does the UK and the rules were applied.
Swap the UK for EU in the below and that exactly what happened in the EU Referendum.
“each country that makes u the UK can decide its destine.”
As for “each country” then each would need it’s own currency, carry it’s share of the national debt, pay it’s own social bills. Guess what? Do that and Scotland is as debt burdened (if not more so) than Greece. Probably the same for NI and Wales.
Nothing is ever as simple as appears to people who have no skin in the game.
Paddy Ashdown said on the evening of the referendum…”I will forgive no one who does not respect the sovereign voice of the British people once it has spoken, whether it is a majority of one per cent or twenty per cent. When the British people have spoken you do what they command. Either you believe in democracy or you don’t.”
17,410,742 people voted for leave, more people than have ever voted for anything in British history.
33.6 million people voted in it. Only once in history (in the general election of 1992) have more – fractionally more – British voters gone to the polls in any national vote; and less than half that number voted in the previous election of British MEPs to the European Parliament. Never have as many voters supported any party in a British general election as voted to leave the EU in 2016.
Some said the majority was not big enough to be decisive. But leave voters outvoted stay voters by a majority of 3.8 per cent. This was a bigger margin of victory than in nine of the 20 post-war general elections: 1950, 1951, 1955, 1964, 1970, February 1974, October 1974, 2005 and 2017. Were those nine elections not decisive? In a democracy, the majority gets its way.
Some said the turnout was not high enough for the result to be valid. But the turnout, 72.2 per cent of the electorate, was higher than in seven post-war general elections – 1970, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017. Were those election results not legitimate?
Hide
“Either you believe in democracy or you don’t.”
So call for a vote. Or in your definition of democracy the voters can not change their mind ?
I stand by what I have said. UK will be many times worst of after Brexit. Actually way worst since Brexit will most likely occur when a global recession starts. Do you actually think that under those conditions they will get a great deal from anyone in the world ?
Ah, the old EU doctrine of democracy where you get to ‘…vote again till you get it right’ rears its ugly head.
So far as being worse off post Brexit that remains to be seen.
I suspect that the UK will actually get a ‘first mover advantage’ and others will inevitably follow suit as the Euro debt crisis unfolds.
Well the UK voted %67 to stayed in the EU first time around so now they voted %52 to exit. I guess it is also the old UK doctrine…
Dear me…yes, the first vote way back in 1975 was to “STAY IN” not “JOIN” the EEC which was also a very different organisation to the European Union of today.
The UK had been taken into the EEC without a vote by the then Prime Minister Ted Heath so that result merely confirmed what was already a “fait accompli”…which is “a thing that has already happened or been decided before those affected hear about it, leaving them with no option but to accept it.”
The referendum in 2016 was the first chance for voters to pass judgment on the EU since 1975 and they clearly rejected it.
Hmmm…”UK will be many times worst of after Brexit.
Sigmar Gabriel, the former Vice- Chancellor of Germany, wrote not long ago that “the EU should be ready to make more concessions to the UK and to allow more time for negotiations,” adding: “the British have withstood bigger crises and will overcome this economic crisis sooner or later. But it’s by no means assured that Europe will survive Britain’s departure.”
EU has deliberately tried to hurt UK in the Brexit negotiations. Please watch Mish’s clip about this based on the BBC documentary. May and Olly Robbins negotiated like idiots with EU.
The EU is negotiating to its own interest to get the most for the EU even if that hurts the UK. Do you expect that when the UK is out and negotiates with the US Trump is going to be kind?
Bill Cash is no REMAINER. Quite the opposite. What he meant by that tweet was REMAINERS arguing WTO Article 24 were creating mischief and were demolished by the article.
I have not figured out why the UK ever agreed to be part of a union dominated by Germany. The UK sure wasn’t enthusiastic about being ruled by Germany in 1940.
A sizable chunk of the original reason for a trade union, was specifically to ensure Germany was in a “union” of some sort with the rest. Instead of using them as ordnance testing ranges for its arms industry, every few decades.
Germany wasn’t very dominant back then. Split into two, recovering from a carpet bombing campaign even the most violent Jihadi could only dream of.
Then, over time, German industry and workers kept improving on and making better stuff, while the Bundesbank largely stayed out of the way. While the UK, France and Italy sat around printing money, hence transferring resources to, their idle, privileged dunce FIRE monkeys, “asset owners” and bureaucracies. Who could then afford more German stuff. All while their own industry, who the resources inevitably were being transferred from, were left high, dry and uncompetitive.
Of course, to Germany’s dismay: Eventually idle, zero value add dunces run out any more wealth to squeeze out of their ever more asset stripped captives. Then, even the dunces can no longer buy as much German stuff as before….
There’s no doubt that after WWII President Truman (as President Wilson after WWI) had utopian ideas that a European Common Market that would prevent any more intra-European wars. But I’ve seen no evidence at all that anyone in Europe took that seriously. Prior to WWI, Europe was a trading behemoth and Germany an industrial powerhouse. Prior the WWI, the USA (and its buddy the UK) was by far the greatest military and economic power in the world and, as now, far more relevant to European squabbling than intra-European tariffs or other regulations between Luxembourg and Belgium—or France. Intra-European treaties and ‘mutual defense agreements’ have no history of ever having been beneficial to anyone in Europe (cf. WWI).
To be strict, the “UK” didn’t agree to join the European Community (or Union). We now KNOW that politicians lied through their teeth to the population about the long-term intentions of the European scheme. Britons thought they were joining a standard trading community: they weren’t. Why the leadership elite were so hung up on joining an organisation which so consistently treated them with distain (cf. Jean Monnet and Charles de Gaulle), is more a question for psychologists, I should say.
EU won’t be fishing in British waters. Portuguese hurt most.
In so far as there are any fish to catch after decades of EU predatory (and often illegal) fishing.