Unity Laugh of the Day
Unity Prime Minister Plot
- Remainer MPs are reportedly plotting to bring down Boris Johnson's government, install a "unity prime minister" for a few days to delay Brexit, then call a general election.
- Remainer Members of Parliament are considering a plan to install a "unity prime minister" to replace Boris Johnson with the sole purpose of delaying Brexit before calling a general election, according to a report.
90% Chance Silliness
Business Insider also claims There is a 90% chance Boris Johnson will break his 'no-deal' Brexit promise, according to these numbers.
March to the Queen
The most ridiculous all is the Remainer threat by John McDonnell who proposes Corbyn Should Tell Queen 'We're Taking Over' if Johnson Loses Confidence Vote.
Useful Tip From Eurointelligence
We have a useful tip for readers who follow Brexit professionally. The easiest way to cut down on your daily Brexit readings without losing any information whatsoever is to exclude two overlapping categories of writers and commentators: anybody who has not read or understood Art. 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and thus treats Brexit purely in the context of UK law and politics; and anybody who involves the Queen at some part in the process, like the extreme Leavers who call for the prorogation of parliament, and the extreme Remainers who want parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit. Some commentators fall into both categories simultaneously.
Today we would like to debunk the myth that the UK parliament can stop the no-deal Brexit. Under EU law - the law that matters in this specific discussion - there are only two technical possibilities for the UK parliament to frustrate an October 31st Brexit. The first and the only certain route is a majority in favour of unilateral revocation of Brexit. No such majority exists.
This leaves a less certain pathway: to seek a further Art. 50 extension. Since Boris Johnson refuses to do this, it would have to involve a new prime minister before October.
So what would happen if the House of Commons were to pass a vote of no-confidence in Johnson's government? Under the fixed-term parliaments act, this would trigger a 14-day period in which parliament can seek an alternative candidate for the job of prime minister. Failing that, there would have to be elections.
An alternative prime minister would be tasked with doing two things only: to write a letter asking the European Council for an extension and to seek immediate elections. It would be what the Italians call a technical government. There was some discussion yesterday on whether Johnson would need to resign even if parliament were to succeed in finding such a candidate. We believe that to be the case. Others do not. But for now this is an idle discussion to which we will happily return if we get to that point. We will probably not, because the numbers are simply not there.
Technically Possible vs Politically Impossible
This notion of marching to the Queen is madness.
The Queen aside, it is technically possible for Parliament to oust Johnson and hold elections.
- Any Tory voting against the government would be outed from the Tory party and lose their seat in the next election. Perhaps a few would, but not the 17 that Business Insider requires to come up with their ridiculous 90% confidence level.
- The second thing that would happen is the Tories would form an alliance with the Brexit Party and Labour would get smashed in the elections.
It will not get to that point because the threat is political madness.
It would take nearly 100% of the opposition plus a handful of Tories to agree to a caretaker government. 17 Tories will not vote themselves out of office.
A handful might. Even then it would be iffy because there are a handful of Labour MPs who want Brexit.
Then, even if the Remainers managed to form a caretaker government until the next election, they would still have to win the election.
Let's dive in further.
The Financial Times reports Lib Dems scotch idea of Corbyn-led caretaker government.
- “I can’t conceive of any circumstances under which we would put Jeremy Corbyn into No. 10,” said one senior Liberal Democrat MP. “He’s not only dangerous for our national security but for our economic security too.”
- “Corbyn’s Labour don’t want to work with other parties to stop Brexit, because the truth is they want to deliver Brexit,” said Jo Swinson, the recently elected Liberal Democrat leader.
While technically possible, the Liberal Democrats want nothing to do with Corbyn. Labour's official policy is a customs union, not remaining in the EU.
Technically, I suppose Corbyn could resign as Labour party leader to make an alliance possible but the Liberal Democrats want to be the senior party, not the junior party.
UK General Election Polls
- On June 6 (not shown), the Brexit Party had a 26% share. Conservatives fell to 17%.
- Since then, conservative support has soared along with Boris Johnson's pledge to deliver Brexit.
- Those in favor of Brexit have united.
- The Remainer vote is split between Labour which wants a customs union and the Liberal Democrats who want to stay in the EU totally.
- The Liberal Democrats do not want anything to do with Corbyn for many reasons.
- An alliance between the Brexit Party and the Tories is likely. An alliance between Labour and the Liberal Democrats isn't, unless Corbyn steps down, and most likely not even then unless Labour changes its political stance to Remain.
The above math can change. But how likely is that?
Note that it's not just the Liberal Democrats who refuse to deal with Corbyn. The reverse is true as well.
Eurointelligence comments "For now, the Labour frontbench team has firmly ruled out the idea of supporting a government of national unity. Rebecca Long-Bailey, a Labour frontbencher who is close to Corbyn, yesterday categorically ruled out supporting a government of national unity to deal with Brexit. We can see why. It does not make sense for them."
In the UK's voting system even small percentage difference can result in massive parliamentary majorities.
The above math would be a devastating election for Labour and the Liberal Democrats as well. Politically, it could be worth it for Jo Swinson just to do away with Corbyn. Alternatively, Corbyn might stand down or be forced out.
Either way, Corbyn will never be UK Prime Minister and the Tories are highly likely to remain in power, having delivered Brexit.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock