We met today @DominicRaab and UK negotiating team. Despite intense efforts, some key issues are still open, including the backstop for IE/NI to avoid a hard border. I will debrief the EU27 and @Europarl_EN on the #Brexit negotiations.
— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) October 14, 2018
EuroNews Reports Brexit talks on pause as Barnier confirms deal not yet reached.
Reuters reports Britain and EU pause Brexit talks until Wednesday summit.
Neither article said much of anything other than the key issue in play is Northern Ireland.
EU Leaders Line Up ‘No-Deal’ Emergency Brexit Summit for November
The Guardian reports EU Leaders Line Up ‘No-Deal’ Emergency Brexit Summit for November
EU leaders are preparing to hold an extraordinary “no deal” Brexit summit in November to deal with the potential consequences of the UK crashing out of the bloc should Theresa May fail to deliver decisive progress on the Irish border issue this week, the Guardian can reveal.
A special meeting of heads of state and government at which the EU had hoped to sign off on the Brexit negotiations next month may instead be turned into a emergency summit to discuss the bloc’s response to a cliff-edge Brexit.
The plan is likely to pile further pressure on the British prime minister by illustrating the EU’s seriousness about allowing the UK to crash out if the alternative were a deal that would undermine the integrity of the single market or prove unacceptable to the Republic of Ireland.
Theresa May straddles Every Red Line
The Financial Times reports Theresa May Straddles Her Red Lines in Search of Brexit Deal
Theresa May started her Brexit negotiation laying down clear red lines. She looks likely to be concluding a draft withdrawal agreement this week by straddling them all.
That paragraph pretty much sums it all. And if such a deal is reached, it could leave the UK in Brexit limbo indefinitely paying money to the EU while being subject to the European Court of Justice.
“Does she have any red lines left?” asked one EU figure.
If a deal is reached, the FT commented: “governance arrangements will involve UK judges in practice applying ECJ rulings from Luxembourg for a decade or more, with regard to both the rights of EU citizens in Britain and the economy of Northern Ireland.“
What kind of deal is that? And all the while the UK will pay money into EU coffers while getting nothing out of it.
Q: How will it resolve Northern Ireland?
A: It won’t.
This kind of nonsense will continue for something like forever, if allowed.
And as long as Theresa May keeps bending over backwards on her alleged “red lines”, the EU will keep taking advantage.
Wake Up Theresa!
The best deal is no deal. Otherwise, the UK will be in perpetual Limbo.
May needs to show the same resolve as the EU: Willingness to say to hell with it all.
Life will be better after Brexit following a short period of pain.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Brexit Talks Paused Until Wednesday: Best Deal is No Deal
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Mish
The issue of Northern Ireland- Ireland border staying open can be solved simply without chaining UK to EU forever and I will now tell you the solution:
Keep the border open! There it is. Nothing complicated.
Ireland is out of Schengen like UK so there are NO hordes of migrants trying to cross from Ireland to Northern Ireland since Ireland checks arrivals before letting them into Ireland just like UK does.
There can be a self reporting customs arrangement for companies with some spot checks on the border or near the border and customs can be done at the factories with dedicated customs specialists (after self-reporting) or each larger city can have customs officials dong customs for smaller companies (after self-reporting).
Ordinary people can be given a 500 pound/euro customs free allowance so no need to check customs from people.
There will be some customs evasion but so what it will still be about 49 billion euros CHEAPER than paying EU 50 billion Euros for the privilege of being chained to EU.
Best Brexit is a NO-Deal-Brexit.
Let Merkel and Macron explain to German and French voters why they need to pay extra 50 billion Euros.
Let Macron meet French farmers burning manure if French agricultural exports to UK drop. (the fear mongering that produce would rot at customs on the French side if Brexit happened is laughable because if that happened French farmers would be setting fires on roads around France and Macron would be forced to FIRE every idiot in government who had trouble getting french farmers produce through to UK in a fast and efficient manner).
Let Merkel be told by German heads of industry that she is an incompetent idiot if exports of German manufactured products to UK drop.
Germany and France export much more to UK than UK exports to them so in any tariff, customs, delay etc. France and Germany are the biggest losers.
Also since France and Spain are hugely dependent on UK tourists it is beyond laughable that Remainers have made scare stories how tourism would become difficult after Brexit since any government messing with UK tourists and the huge revenue France and Spain get from them will become an ex-government really quickly.
May’s Chequers plan aka EU-in-all-but-name deal written up by communist Olly Robbins must be among the biggest political blunders in history.
May must be voted out unless she drops Chequers and fires incompetent former communist Olly Robbins.
The UK has had crap governments & leadership since late Thatcher years and it will only get worse if Labour get in.
The average Briton deserves much better but is repeatedly let down, ignored, over-ridden & patronized.
Meanwhile you have this news. UK as suckers as EU is determined to punish UK and poach as much business as it can.
Wake-up UK. Pull in horns and defend our own islands only and stop spending abroad with next to zero benefit to our citizens. Meanwhile we run major trade deficits with those we pay to defend & run-up our own public & private debt levels & increase systemic risk.
One reason it has been pushed back is the rejection of Mays’ plans by a swathe of Conservatives in the UK. She has crossed their red lines and will have a problem garnering support.
Therefore any deal that was ready to be signed off was/is as good as dead in the water from the UK side no matter if the EU agrees to May’s plans. The EU know this, hence no deal is most likely outcome.
She hasn’t carried enough people with her but ploughed forward anyway. Now panic ensues as she is disposable and runs the risk of losing any subsequent election too.
A right sh!t show.
Too many groups to satisfy and if all the disatissfied group together there will be no arrangement.
UK runs the risk of a Labour government.
UK trying to be reasonable has led to this mess.
This can easily be the straw that breaks the global economic back as UK is a major destination for EU finished goods, especially German. 2nd net largest German goods recipient. Just enough stress to roll-over the EU/UK into a recession. Add the other stressors and it’s only going one way. Down.
Down for trade and the Euro & £.
$ will look stronger with associated problems.
Finally it could pull US over the edge too.
China has problems.
Result = global recession imho.
Tariffs on German car exports to the UK and increased tariffs to the USA would be a huge shock to the German economy and probably get rid of Merkel into the bargain.