Budget Deficit Lies: What's the Real Deficit?

Budget Deficit Debate

I covered this debate in detail earlier, but let's start with absurd nonsense.

Trump on Paying Down the Debt

That is truly Fantasyland thinking. In fact, it is so preposterous, one has to wonder if it is a purposeful lie. Then again, we are talking about Trump, so perhaps he does believe it.

Discrepancy Between Deficit and Rise in Debt

With that joke out of the way, let's investigate the discrepancy between increase in debt and the alleged deficit from my March 19, 2019 article:

Projected US Budget Deficit Lie in Four Pictures

Data for these charts from US Government Debt, not an official government website.

Projections vs Reality

In nearly all cases, the increase in national debt is way higher than projected deficits. Why?

Because the projected deficit does not include all of the amount owed to the Social Security Trust Fund. That amount is called off-budget. But when the calendar year rolls over, the difference magically appears on the balance sheet as actual debt.

Actual and Projected Debt

​Projected Deficits vs Projected Increases in Debt

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​That picture is where lie meets reality. Let's total it up.

Projected Deficits vs Projected Increases in Debt Totals Through 2023

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The total projected debt increase for 2018-2023 is $6.826 trillion.

The total projected deficit increase for 2018-2023 is $5.352 trillion.

Deficit Scam

Excluding Social Security from the deficit is an accounting scam.

The cumulative deficit lie for the years 2018-2023 is $1.473 trillion.

Expect Much Worse

The story is even much worse. Those numbers assume no recession through 2023.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock