Mortgage Rates Rising as Speculative Building Increases

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Completed Homes for Sale in 2018

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Observations

  • Supply of completed new homes has increased from 5.6 months to 7.4 months since January.
  • Current supply is the highest rate since March of 2011.
  • Builders are sitting on 74,000 completed homes built on speculation vs 63,000 in January.
  • On January 4, the 30-year mortgage rate was 3.95%. On November 15 it was 4.94%.
  • The Fed is committed to more rate hikes.

Please note that New Home Sales Dive 8.9% in October, Down 12.0% From Year Ago.

Meanwhile, Trump is committed to a trade war he cannot possibly win.

What can possibly go wrong with this picture?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

New Home Sales Rise Half of Economists’ Expectations, Supply Surges

New homes sales hit the skids in December, down 10.4 percent. December numbers were revised slightly lower today.

New Home Sales Weakening as Builder Speculation Increases: Home Builders In Trouble?

This morning, the Census Bureau reported New home sales are down again. Diving a bit deeper into the report there is clear evidence of builder speculation just as home sales and prices weaken.

New Home Sales Surge Most in 28 Years on Percentage Basis

New home sales for September blew out top end expectations and then some, rising 18.9 percent, the largest percentage gain in 28 years.

New Home Sales Sink 1.7% to 627,000 Units: Builder Spec Homes Most Since 2009

New home sales in July were 627,000 units SAAR. Economists expected a rebound in new home sales to 649,000 from 631,000.

New Home Sales Surge, Prices Down, Revisions Negative

New home sales beat economists expectations. But the surge was entirely in the South.

New Home Sales Top Estimates, Hit Four-Month High, Huge Surge in the West

New home sales rebounded strongly in March and revisions took February higher.

Existing Home Sales Drop 6th Consecutive Month

Existing home sales declined 3.4% in September. This was the 6th month and the 5th month below the consensus estimate.

New Home Sales Rise Following Huge Two-Month Downward Revisions

I apologize for the diversion from political slime into actual economic reporting. But let's discuss new home sales.

Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline

Existing homes sales fell 0.4% in April. The Consensus expected a rise.