Canadian Yield Curve

In Canada, the entire t-Bill portion of the curve from 1-month to 1-year is inverted with 2-year bonds.

Reader Gary pinged me with the above chart from the Financial Post.

Australia Inversion

I did a quick check on Australia. Here are the numbers from Investing.Com.

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As you can see, 1-year debt trades at a higher yield than 2- and 3-year debt. 1-year debt is very close to inversion with 5-year debt.

Australia 10-Year Bond Yield

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Yield on Australia’s 10-year bond is approaching the spike low of 2.236% in March.

Unlucky 25

In December, Fortune Magazine reported Australia Is Going on 25 Years Without a Recession.

Australia has not had a recession since June of 1991. That track record will soon be over. Australia is in recession. All that waits is the official pronouncement.

On January 31, 2015 I proclaimed Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015. That assessment on Canada was accurate.

Time will tell if the US went into recession in 2015. I believe the US did go into recession in December.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Reader Questions on Yield Curve Inversions as a Recession Indicator

Reader Eric is curious about yield curve inversions. He writes …

Flattening of the Yield Curve in Pictures; Is an Inversion Necessary to Signal a Recession?

Curve watchers Anonymous has an eye on the yield curve. Here is a snapshot of year-end-closing values from 1998-12-31 through 2015-12-31.

Recession Signal Getting Louder: 5-Year Yield Inverts With 3-Month Yield

The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion.

Yield Curve Inverts in 28 Places: Recession Warning Resumes

After a brief respite, the yield curve is again flashing a bright recession signal. The curve is inverted in 28 places.

Yield Curve Steepened Since January 3 but Portions Remain Inverted

On Jan 3, portions of the yield curve inverted with the Fed Funds rate. That's gone, but other inversions remain.

Recession Without an Inverted Yield Curve? Sure, Why Not?

Japan had six consecutive recessions without an inverted yield curve. There is no reason it can't happen here.

Why the Yield Curve Inverts in One Simple Picture

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown.

Yield Curve Recession Watch: 7-Year Treasury Yield Inverts With 1-Year

The yield curve is inverted in six places. Notably, the 1-year T-Bill yield inverts with all durations through 7 years.

Surefire Recession Signal in Pictures

The strength of inversions widened today. That's a strong recession warning, but it is not the actual recession signal.