US Treasury Yields 1-Year to 30-Years

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The 30-year long bond set a new record low end-of-day yield of 1.94% in late August.

Yields then went on a tear, with the 30-year scorching up to 2.37%. In that time, the yield curve remained strongly inverted throughout. Note the 1-year yield (pink line) was higher than the 10-year yield (orange line) through early October.

It was not until early November that the yield curve mostly uninverted. Only two small inversions remain now as shown in the lead chart.

US Treasury Yields 2000 - 2019-11-19

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The larger picture shows not much has changed. Bounces in yields come and go.

Attitudes, however, have changed. People have written off the recession because of steepening of the yield curve.


Rate Cut Odds

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The financial markets have written off interest rate cuts by the Fed all the way until June of 2020.

Day of Reckoning

As part of the amazing complacency, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says "Day of Reckoning" Far Off

Color me skeptical.

Note that GDP Estimates Crashed on Dismal Economic Reports.

And in particular, Freight Volumes Negative YoY for 11th Straight Month, sounding a strong recession warning.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

In Search of the Allegedly Steepening Yield Curve

There has been a lot of commentaries recently about the steepening yield curve. Let's investigate with pictures.

Yield Curve to Completely Flatten in 2018: But How?

The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By yields converging up, down, or a mix?

Yield Curve Steepens but Recession Risks Haven't Faded

The yield curve has steepened considerably in the past month. Some think it means recession risk has diminished.

Yield Curve Flattens Dramatically, Looking Quite Recessionary

Curve Watchers Anonymous has been watching the yield curve flatten for months on end.

Relentless Yield Curve Flattening

Most economists expect the Fed will hike at least twice more this year. If so, portions of the yield curve may invert.

What Spot in the Yield Curve is Likely to Invert First?

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.

Why the Yield Curve Inverts in One Simple Picture

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown.

China's Yield Curve Inverts: Will the US Follow?

China's macro picture tumbled to its weakest since August 2016. Portions of the yuan yield curve inverted again as China attempts to rein in property bubbles and state-owned enterprise (SOE) excesses. The US yield curve hasn't inverted yet. What's in the cards?

Yield Curve Inverted Out to Seven Years

Portions of the yield curve are once again inverted all the way out to 7 years.