There will not be a recession as we know it. We have broken through the worries of the money printers. So, at the start of the next so called recession there will be some ominous event that will require 20 plus trillion stimulus….
My prediction is covid makes a comeback by 2025. There will be more impetus for spending for Ukraine and Europe against Russia until then. A few more countries are set to join NATO this summer. There is literally no way massive weapons won’t be deployed to eastern Europe and new NATO countries this summer. The West and Russia have now started down the game of brinksmanship which has no good options. The longer this goes on the more likely we get missiles flying into a NATO country.
Dr_Novaxx
2 years ago
Yes, and the CPI doesn’t even measure *real* inflation anymore. They replaced apartment rent with “owners’ equivalent rent” fairly recently. This is obtained by polling homeowners with a question like “what price would you charge to rent out your home?”
I dare say If we used the 1970s calculated CPI, the rate today it would probably be double the current advertised rate. This is yet another form of fraud so prevalent today — using the same term to describe something completely different than the original meaning. Like calling genetic modification injections a “vaccine.” This is always done to obscure reality and thus hide criminal intent.
ColoradoAccountant
2 years ago
Mortgage rates over 5 percent today. Won’t the Fed loose money if they sell their MBS’s? I thought they weren’t allowed to sell at a loss.
goldguy
2 years ago
Evans would be lousy stock market picker, hope never works
Zardoz
2 years ago
TYPING IN ALL CAPS MAKES ME QUESTION HIS COMPETENCE
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
For a bit of a kick, watch the Not The Bee elder abuse video currently playing – a hit piece on Biden and those using him – then read this Mish posting.
Counter
2 years ago
Is he insinuating that asset bubbles are inherently deflationary?
thimk
2 years ago
Yup the feds still think inflation is transitory and in denial that this type of structural inflation cannot be remedied via the feds “toolbox” .
Scooot
2 years ago
The end of the year is 8.5 months away, he’s effectively said by then well know what happened. That hardly inspires much confidence in their handling of the situation. I guess they just don’t know what to do.
They don’t know in part because they are flying blind when it comes to what happens with Ukraine and Russia. It is now literally week to week. We are entering phase 2 now which has the risk of escalating into a wider war. The longer this goes on the more likely more stimulus will be needed to keep funding the war. Make no mistake the US is the chief spender in this war against Russia.
Thank you, Casual Observer. Your comment is one I rarely hear, even though it should be obvious to everyone. U.S. weapons by the hundreds of thousands sent to Ukraine. Are we not allowed to ask who’s paying for them? Not Ukraine, as their still paying Hunter Biden. NATO? Yeah, that’ll be the day. No it’s us “printing more money” and then being surprised when we have inflation. Seems to me the only “hope” that’s left is that Russia sends a nuke to D.C.
RonJ
2 years ago
“Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Resorts to Hope”
Maybe some thoughts and prayers will do the trick.
Scooot
2 years ago
Will a recession make much difference to the cost of living this time? The bond market doesn’t think so, the long end has taken another hammering today.
Is it the Fed’s job to prevent recessions ? This is where they went wrong in their mission. I say set rates back to 2.25% since that is neutral. There are great reasons not to ever change rates again after that because neutral is neutral.
The Fed has never prevented anything–except the stock market from being a real free market for the last twenty years. Apparently they believe the 1970’s were an anomaly and not an unavoidable outcome of excess government spending.
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
Evans? … hardly a Nostradamus …
May 2021:
“It seems to me that such an accelerationist view is on the minds of many of those warning about an outbreak of inflation today. I think the risk of this scenario is remote.
…
…. So there is no evidence that inflation expectations are spiraling out of control.
Indeed, I have to say that I hope we do get some feedback between actual inflation and inflation expectations as we move through the year. If expectations move up, then we could make some real progress toward reaching our inflation target.”
Indeed, I have to say that I hope we do get some feedback between actual inflation and inflation expectations as we move through the year. If expectations move up, then we could make some real progress toward reaching our inflation target.”