Coronaviruses mutate easily and can jump from animals to humans. Wuhan, population 11 million was locked down yesterday. 8,000 busses and all subline lines in Wuhan are now shut down.
Huanggang, a city of about 7.5 million people, about 35 miles east of Wuhan is now quarantined.
And the list keeps growing.
What We Know
This is What We Know About the Wuhan Coronavirus.
What is a coronavirus?
The Wuhan virus belongs to a family of viruses known as coronaviruses. These viruses, named for the crown-like spikes on their surfaces, infect mostly pigs, cats and other animals. But they mutate easily and can jump from animals to humans, and from one human to another. In recent years, they have become a growing player in infectious-disease outbreaks world-wide.
How is the virus spread among humans?
Seven strains are known to infect humans, including the virus in Wuhan. They can be spread by coughing, kissing or making contact with saliva, Chinese officials say. Four of the strains cause common colds. Two other strains, however, have been extremely deadly: Severe acute respiratory syndrome, known as SARS, and Middle East respiratory syndrome, or MERS, are coronaviruses.
What are the symptoms of illness and how do you know if you have it?
Patients have had a fever, cough and other symptoms of pneumonia. Public-health officials have developed diagnostic tests, which are being used to confirm whether a patient has the Wuhan coronavirus or another infection. Five major airports in the U.S. are screening arriving international travelers for fever; those who have one are then screened for other symptoms.
More Cities Locked Down
The Wall Street Journal reports Spreading Coronavirus Prompts Lockdown of More Chinese Cities.
Two more Chinese cities were put on lockdown by the government on Thursday, as authorities in the Chinese gambling center of Macau said they were weighing closures of its casinos, expanding an unprecedented experiment to try to contain a fast-spreading virus that has killed 17 people and infected more than 600.
The World Health Organization on Thursday declined to declare the outbreak a global public health emergency, saying it wasn’t yet a public health emergency beyond China.
On Thursday, authorities in Huanggang—a Chinese city of 7.5 million people—said they wouldn’t let long-distance trains and buses run from the urban center and would shut its public transportation system in the lockdown zone, effective midnight Friday local time. Ezhou, another neighboring city with just over a million residents, said it would enact similar restrictions, bringing the total number of cities with travel restrictions to three.
Separately, the chief executive of Macau, the Chinese special administrative region that is the world’s biggest gambling market, said Thursday he was considering closing all of the territory’s 40-some casinos, following the confirmation of a second coronavirus infection case there, government-run broadcaster Radio Television Hong Kong reported.
Seven Cities
Articles get out of date quickly. The WSJ article says 3 cities are quarantined.
ZeroHedge reports China On Edge Of Chaos: “7 Cities, 23 Million People Under Quarantine”
The numbers keep growing.
Quarantine Cage
My cousin in Shanghai sent me this video. Apparently this happened today: a traveller with high fever from Wuhan went straight into a quarantine cage.#WuhanCoronavirus pic.twitter.com/NtFoeHpRTn
— Adam Ni (@adam_ni) January 23, 2020
Masks and Hand Sanitizers Vanish From Stores
The cost of face masks, if you can find them, is prohibitive.
Flights out of Wuhan are now canceled.
Areas Impacted
#WuhanCoronavirus
Excepted Tibet & Qinghai,
ALL PROVINCES IN #CHINA ARE INFECTED! pic.twitter.com/LNpE2rokKg— 🖐️🇭🇰PaulHongKong🇭🇰☝️ (@paulhunghk1001) January 23, 2020
A U.S. citizen who recently returned from central China has been diagnosed with the new virus, the CDC said Tuesday
MarketWatch explains why the mysterious illness from China continues to spread so quickly.
The pneumonia-causing virus has spread in China, helped by the country’s Lunar New Year holiday, which begins Friday. “This is the wild card,” the Associated Press reported. “People unfamiliar with China have trouble understanding the immense travel phenomenon that occurs during Lunar New Year, when, over a one-month period, some 3 billion people are on the move, many returning to their home towns and regions but others vacationing. Peak travel occurs this week.”
Another reason for the rapid spread: While some people are canceling travel plans in China and opting to stay home over the holiday period, others may not yet have experienced the worst of the symptoms, believe themselves to be well enough to travel and/or could be reluctant to pay up to $400 to change a flight — especially if they believe they merely have a common cold. In fact, previous iterations of the coronavirus are very similar to a common cold.
People may not know they’re carrying the virus, and doctors don’t yet know how long it takes to develop. “If you knew the incubation period, you could do quarantining of people who are in close contact with infected patients,” Melissa Nolan, an assistant professor at the University of South Carolina’s Arnold School of Public Health, told The Wall Street Journal. “You would monitor those people for the incubation period.” Symptoms include a runny nose, headache, cough, sore throat, fever and a general feeling of being unwell, according to the CDC.
Nasty bugs like coronaviruses can last for days on objects. The sinister sounding Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (more commonly known as MRSA) lasted longest (168 hours) on material from a seat-back pocket while the bacteria Escherichia coli O157:H7 (also known as E.coli, which can cause kidney problems) survived longest (96 hours) on the material from the armrest of planes, according to research presented in 2014 to the American Society for Microbiology.
Escape From Containment
“The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times” – Nature, 2017 https://t.co/1Z20gJkvrG
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 23, 2020
Canada Too
🇨🇦: 5 individuals are being tested for the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus in Quebec City and Montreal after travelling to Wuhan and showing symptoms of a respiratory virus.
🛬: Airports in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal to begin precautionary health screenings.#WuhanCoronavirus pic.twitter.com/fHZZZ8KFGi
— Intelligence Fusion – North America (@IFNorthAmerica) January 23, 2020
Collapsing on the Street
In #Wuhan，people are collapsing on streets due to the deadly #WuhanPneumonia .
so helpless.#WuhanCoronavirus #WuhanOutbreak pic.twitter.com/X5ho3Llpcm— 巴丢草 Bad ї ucao (@badiucao) January 23, 2020
Understanding the Scale
- The population of Chicago is 2.7 million.
- The Chicago metro area population is 9.5 million.
- The population of New York City is 8.6 million.
- The New York City metro area population is 20.1 million.
- The population of London is 8.8 million
- The London metro area population is 13.7 million.
- The population of Illinois is 12.7 million
“To my knowledge, trying to contain a city of 11 million people is new to science. It has not been tried before as a public-health measure, so we cannot at this stage say it will or will not work,” Gauden Galea, the World Health Organization’s country representative for China, said in an interview.
Tom Inglesby, an expert on epidemics who is director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said “large-scale quarantine efforts in the past have not been successful in changing the outcome of disease outbreaks.”
Because of its key role in domestic transportation, Wuhan is sometimes referred to as “the Chicago of China” by foreign sources.
I tend to diss these virus fears. But one of them will be real. Is this the one?
Certainly locking down 23 million people is quite the containment effort.
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) January 23, 2020
So far there have only been 17 deaths. But little is known about the disease.
Imagine halting all trains and planes flying from Chicago. This is what’s going on in China.
Locking down 23 million people is a very big deal.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Based on people who have either recovered or died, a small group yet, the mortality rate is apparently about the same as with SARS, about 20%. The apparent rate — 3% — includes people who have just come down with the disease.
If correct, a 20% mortality rate would be huge news. It would also explain the massive government reaction to this in China. Too bad that kind of information will never be release in an accurate non-biased report until it is all over.
It’s all the spicey rat foo yung they eat,you eat a nasty ass rat,all bets are off,no Obamacaid in China,sorry!
Anyone here who selectively believes one thing but not another should look in the mirror before they ever go near a computer again.
Out of the 18 dead, 16 were over 60 years old. The last one was 80. 10 had a pre-existing condition.
“The symptoms include fever, coughing and difficulty breathing.” – perfect set of symptoms for paranoid hypochondriacs.
“Coronavirus ‘may become global emergency’”
As noted above there is a huge disconnect bw the official story and officials panic reaction. The official data doesn’t add up to the reaction.
So, which is true?
I covered that in my other comments. Showing the plebs who is the boss? Showing competency? Showing that they can easily control millions of people?
The virus is probably real, though we don’t know many details. It’s the reaction and hype that is fishy.
I’m sure just 18 are dead. I have a bridge to sell you if you think just 18 are dead.
That is the only number we have. I doubt you have better information.
It is 25 now. I doubt the r-not is rising so slowly if there is a quarantine for millions in place. Both cannot be true.
I predict this will end up being nothing but hysteria. Like the “war” with Iran.
Evidently, the CCPP is reacting seriously. With emergency, if not panic.
The official figures don’t add up to such reaction. Officials must believe a way more grim reality than reflected by the MSM to have such a response. (This is not to say whether they are correct or wrong, though).
Line Added:
Because of its key role in domestic transportation, Wuhan is sometimes referred to as “the Chicago of China” by foreign sources.
In my dealings with colleagues travelling to China they always avoided Wuhan like the plague.
Chinese eat bats and live mice: link to youtu.be
Just like Ozzy 😀
Do they deliver?
Quarantining 7 cities holding 23 million people makes a very public statement about how serious China thinks this virus is. I would not have given this story much concern until that happened. Now, I am wondering what the Chinese health officials know that has not yet been made public. Given the recent increase in reported cases, I imagine the public will have a much better idea how this will unfold after the next 3-7 days.
Is this a test run for Marshall Law like some suggest? I doubt that. I think such a move is inconsistent with China’s economic goals. Perhaps China is quick to issue such quarantine orders because their government does not view this type of restriction on individual travel as a big deal.
When you are the one-and-only party leading a country with a restless population and a high possibility of economic trouble in the near future, it may be beneficial to remind them who is in charge.
Or your setting up reasons to justify why your economy is doing poorly.
What is this “Marshall Law” you speak of?
Penny Marshall (Laverne & Shirley)?
I admit the criminal part of my brain thought such an event could be used as an excuse to scapegoat the everything bubble bursting, but given how central banks recently seem to have adopted a policy that no significant asset price contraction shall ever again be allowed at any point in the future, I doubt China would intentionally precipitate such an event.
No, I suspect this is either mother nature reminding us we are still part of the animal kingdom or else there was an accident at the Wuhan Ultra Biohazard lab. If it is a lab accident, hopefully they did not release anything too lethal.
I’ll go for the most obvious answer. The virus is dangerous and contagious. My limited experience of viruses is with livestock, but same rules apply – you have to employ extreme measures of protection because once a virus reaches the herd or flock you are basically screwed, no ifs or buts. The only mitigating factor here is that mortality is not so high it seems…yet.
We should be provided with proper details on the virus so as to decide what measures are nescessary in our own countries ( if any). I don’t like the current opacity, it allows our own politicians to avoid making unwanted decisions ( i.e. they will wait till the public demands due to obvious result, maybe by which time self quarantine will no longer be effective – they may be pushing to keep international transit open for example)
Well – if it gets serious – we can always ask Greta what to do.
Per her previous advice, to Panic will be the answer.
Some social media have suggested that this outbreak may be a biological weapon testing by the CIA, showing China who is the real hegemon of the world. One argument was that this virus infects (until now) only people of chinese ethnicity, not any other races. I tend to laugh at this kind of conspiracy theory, but with neocons who hate China so much, anything is possible.
There is supposed to be a virus lab in Wuhan.
It is only a matter of time before a weaponized agent escapes from some or other lab around the world.
It’s potentially the straw that breaks the back of the world economy.
Nature is infinitely better at cooking up something as complex as a functional virus, than any bunch of government lab workers will ever be. Keeping naturally evolved, nasty strains alive, and at best multiplying and packaging them, is the best any of these weapons labs can hope for.
I disagree. Natural can be nasty but evolutionary.
Man made (now able to synthesis DNA mutations) can be completely left field and made to target characteristics you want to make susceptible, down to race.
To a degree a racially homogenous population is more susceptible to target and collapse for that reason.
No need to hit everyone but say 20% (perhaps) and a society can collapse – say all able bodied men of fighting age below 35.
Genetic manipulation can offer some scary capabilities.
“Genetic manipulation can offer some scary capabilities.”
In theory, yes. It can also allow “us” to create life from dead matter, by simply mucking about with protein chains.
Problem is, creating new species of something even as simple as a virus, is darned near infinitely more difficult than either of 1)babbling about Marx, 2)printing Washington’s face on paper pieces, 3)preening around being “Leaders(tm)”, 4)”Holding someone accountable”, and 4)sitting on ones rear while said printing enables the fungi in ones walls to make ones house “go up.”
Which pretty much renders it out of reach for Progressive Man, whether nominally “communist” or not.
Eventually the movie “Contagion” will be real. The viruses adapt a lot more quickly to modern medicine and get stronger. Eventually there will be a substantial dieoff in human population. It is probably just a matter of time.
or we just keep trashing our environment and climate and suffer the consequences. Food doesn’t grow in stores. Sooner or later there’ll be the right mix of floods, droughts and storms that will knock back food supply.
Don’t forget, a lot of the world spends 1/2 their income on food. If food prices double or more they starve and start riots.
Yes, it is only a matter of time before another great pandemic causes major deaths across the world much greater than the annual deaths caused by yearly flus. It may or may not happen in our lifetime but it will definitely happen.
I may be corrected but it appears the youngest victim was 48 years old.
It has been about 100 years since the last great viral epidemic that killed a few million people. 23M is nothing. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.
Wake if they actually close the casinos.
should be “wake me”
The Chinese will gamble on their death bed.
Even with their health? And lives?
The 1918 flu pandemic targeted adults with healthy immune systems, perhaps the main reason it was so devastating.
Is there any information on the demography of the 17 known victims?
Is Tamiflu effective against coronavirus?
The chaos from WWI was a factor.
….and now the world is ONE BIG CHAOS , just imagine !
It wasn’t just chaos. People were generally weak from the war and localized famines back then. Popular understanding of diseases was different too.
Protease inhibitors, which are agents used in HIV, may have some activity. Practically speaking, it’s supportive care
Seems that it’s affecting only the weak and infirm for now.
Agree that the chaos of WWI played a role in the 1918 pandemic, which came and went quickly but very deadly.
I tend to diss these fears as well. But one of these will be real.
Certainly locking down 23 million people is quite the containment effort.
Yes, but we don’t really know what is going on. It’s China after all.
The video you posted could also be anything. It could be someone collapsed from the virus, it could be something completely else. BS is spread really easily these days.
Mish, I think there’s something wrong with the site. When using my IPAD the comment box had vanished so I logged out with the intention of login back in but there’s no login box. I had to boot up the PC to post this.
External perception of China is important to the CCPP.
Either they think this lockdown shows a good face and control or they know something. Which is it?
I agree with the comment about perception and lean towards the show of good face.
Over Chinese new year ?
I don’t think so, unless you find martial law an acceptable substitute.
Doesn’t have to be martial law. Could be just a reminder of who is in charge, a show of competence or ability to control complex situations. Even if the virus isn’t containable anymore, they have shown that they can lock down whole cities and nobody can do anything about that.
If a crisis comes, people will trust that the leadership is capable of big action.
OK, that kind of face, but I would not call it good because you have millions who probably wait a year to visit family and have some time off, but instead they find themselves locked into isolation and no idea when they will be released. I think this will not find that much understanding from the average chinese, especially if the epidemic is not cleared within a short timeframe. I just don’t think they would exaggerate the circumstance to put on a show at this particular point (new year), and so maybe this is going to be long and a new form of management will be used for the country to deal with it. I don’t know.
Or it could be the best time of the year to do this. The more you inconvenience people, the more they take notice.
Who knows… But I think it’s a good bet that this whole thing will fade away just like SARS did.
Have to hope so. Reading a vaccine is at least a year away. Here are ectracts from a european report yesterday, sort of rounds up what is or isn’t known :
A media statement by a senior expert in China suggests that the mean incubation period observed in the current outbreak is seven days, with a range between 2–12 [37]. Based on the epidemiological characteristics of respiratory infections caused by SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, an incubation period of two to seven days and up to 14 days is plausible. So far, among the laboratory-confirmed cases, about 20% are seriously or critically ill and four confirmed cases have died.
The rather small number of fatalities reported as of 21 January 2020 should not be interpreted as a low severity indicator as the numbers are expected to change frequently. In addition, it is not clear if all pneumonia associated deaths in Wuhan were appropriately tested prior to the use of the 2019-nCoV specific RT-PCR assay. Moreover, progression to severe illness is delayed and it is unclear how many severe cases have been hospitalised in the last week. In the absence of results from ongoing epidemiological investigations, it is also not possible to assess whether there are population groups at higher risk of severe illness.
In the absence of detailed information from the ongoing outbreak investigations in China, it is not possible to quantify the extent of human-to-human transmission.
Hmmmmm. External perception is not important to the US?
Less so in my opinion or at least less chance to control it. China is more command and control and homogeneous.
A one-time social credit score bonus was offered.
I’m increasingly uneasy. Our CDC and Chinese authorities have been playing whack-a-virus, mostly bird flu strains, for decades now. Each time, they typically issue reassuring, dissimulating not-to-worry comments, followed often by the slaughter of millions of geese, ducks and chickens.
Surely, a mutated virus has a better shot at propagation today than ever before, floating about in an aluminum tube with an unfiltered, recirculated air supply moving to the next destination at 540 mph…
Perhaps the Communist Party is testing something (maybe martial-law abilities?). Or just to show who is in charge, in case people forget.
I am not too worried about the virus.
Possibilities
Animal origin
Not purposeful release from Wuhan biolab.
Purposeful release from Wuhan biolab to make it look not purposeful (unlikely)
Planted from outside to make it look like not purposeful release from Wuhan.
I say this because we just have to leave it there as unknown, because we will hear these ideas pushed without validation. Short of admission origin is unlikely to be known, just possibly there are markers on the virus that will point to if human source.
Ear of bat, tooth of snake… hubble bubble toil and trouble.
For a little perspective: CDC claims that 61,000 people die of flu every year in the US alone. That is 167 every day on average, but actually concentrated during certain parts of the year when the daily numbers are much higher.