Yuan Declined 10% Since February

The Renmimbi (yuan) is down 10% since the end of February and is risk of breaking 7 per dollar.

Image placeholder title

Currency Threat

The Wall Street Journal reports China Puts Yuan Skeptics on Notice as Currency Nears Decade Low.

> A top Chinese policy maker warned investors to stop betting against the country’s currency Friday, boosting the yuan after it had fallen to nearly its weakest in a decade.

> “For forces that try to short renminbi, we fought hand to hand a few years ago, and we are very familiar with each other,” said Pan Gongsheng, a vice governor of the People’s Bank of China, at a briefing on Friday. “I think it’s still fresh in both of our memories.”

> The comments from Mr. Pan, who is also the head of the country’s foreign-exchange regulator, were the latest sign that Beijing is growing concerned about its currency again, more than three years after a previous bout of depreciation sparked global market havoc.

> China has made it more expensive this year for traders to place bets against the currency and tweaked the mechanism for setting its official daily trading range—efforts aimed at reining in the yuan’s tumble.

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

> After a nearly 7% selloff this year, the yuan is at the brink of hitting 7 per dollar—a closely watched threshold that could trigger further selling if Chinese businesses and individuals decide that means they need to expatriate capital before any further decline. The yuan last traded weaker than 7 per dollar in May 2008 in the onshore market, while offshore trading was only introduced in 2010.

Obvious Bluff

I know an obvious bluff when I see one, and that's an obvious bluff.

Two Problems

  1. China needs the yuan to fall to counteract Trump's tariffs
  2. China does not want the capital flight that will accompany a sinking yuan

Obvious Solution, Obvious Bluff

Points 1 and 2 are contradictory. The only solution is to let point 1 happen while denying they will let it happen.

Expect Volatile Moves

China will act, at times, to make it appear it will defend the yuan even as it will slowly let it sink.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Capital Flight: Money Leaving China at Record Rate

China is fighting "abnormal" cash flows. It's not surprising in the least.

Trump Asks the Fed Start a Currency War With China

To win his trade war, Trump seeks a currency war.

China Tightens Forex Capital Controls

At the start of every year, many citizens of China opt to take out their entire yearly allotment of $50,000 in foreign currency.

Capital Flight in Eurozone Continues

Capital flight from one Eurozone country to another, continues to rise. That capital flight is a measure of trust of of a nation’s banks.

Currency War or Trade War? Two-Edged Dilemma for US and China

Does China (Trump) want to fight a trade war or a currency war?

China Spotlight: Capital Flight Intensifies, US Treasury Reserves Plunge, Capital Controls Increase

A reader pinged me the other day about China “dumping” US treasuries.

Capital Flight to Germany in Full Swing

Capital; flight to Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland is in full swing. These sums cannot be paid back.

China Halts All US Ag Imports, Trump Accuses China of Currency Manipulation

It didn't take long for China to retaliate against Trump's trade war escalation. It did so by halting all US ag imports.

Nixon Shock, the Reserve Currency Curse, and a Pending Currency Crisis

Many problems today including deficit spending, trade deficits, and income inequality have their roots in 1971.