Eamonn Sheridan at Forex Live has some interesting comments on China's December Trade Balance.

The export figures are a focus and they are poor indeed. But save some space in the barf bag for the import results, they are terrible - huge miss on these.

Demand in China has been showing evidence of slowing. This is a nail in the coffin.

December 2018 Data - Yuan Terms

  • China trade balance comes in at CNY 395bn, expected CNY 345bn, prior was CNY 306bn
  • Exports 0.2% y/y, expected 6.6%, prior was 10.2%... BIG MISS
  • Imports -3.1% y/y, expected 12.0%, prior was 7.8% … even bigger miss

December 2018 Data - US Dollar Terms

  • China trade balance USD 57.06bn, expected $51.6bn, prior was $44.7bn
  • Exports -4.4% y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 5.4%
  • Imports -7.6% y/y, expected 4.5%, prior was 3.0%

Tariff Man

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Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low

The Financial Times reports Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low

Including $13bn in US asset divestitures by Chinese investors, China’s net US investment actually shrank by $8bn in 2018.

Negative Revisions

Worst China Data in 15 Years

Expect "Greatest Deal Ever"

Both the US and China desperately need a deal.

So, as I stated 5 days ago, Expect a Deal With China, Just Don't Expect Much From It.

And should there be a deal, expect announcements of the "greatest deal ever" no matter how trivial the deal really is.

Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed

In case you missed it, Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed

German, French, and Italian industrial production collapsed in November. Italy GDP is negative for 3rd Quarter.

A global recession is on deck.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

China Exports, Imports Soar: Global Trade Outlook Improving?

Chinese exports accelerated in May. The New York Times notes China May Exports, Imports Beat Forecasts.

China's Global Trade Surplus Expected to Go Negative, US Not the Beneficiary

China's trade surplus with the rest of the world is shrinking at a fast pace, just not with the US.

China Posts Largest-Ever Annual Trade Surplus with US: What's it Mean?

China posted a $275.8 billion trade surplus with the US in 2017, even though its overall surplus shrank. What's next?

Trade Deficit Widens Despite Tariffs: Record Deficits With China, Mexico

Today's trade report will set off hows from trump. Imports up, exports down. Record deficits with China and Mexico.

Trade Deficit Widens by 1.7% With China Leading the Way

Exports fell 0.1% and imports rose 0.2%. The result was a widening of the trade deficit to $55.5 billion.

China Will Struggle to Honor Trade Commitments

The coronavirus outbreak will seal the fate of China's trade commitments but both the US and China are in denial.

Trump and China to Sign Trade War Ceasefire on Wednesday

On Wednesday, the US and China will sign a compromise deal that will calm but not end a two-year trade war.

China Trade Deal "Success": Details None

The US and China both claim trade talk success. There are literally no details.

Trump Hints at Trade Deal With China After he Wins Reelection

The top Trade team from the US will meet with China but expectations are not high.