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Eamonn Sheridan at Forex Live has some interesting comments on China's December Trade Balance.

The export figures are a focus and they are poor indeed. But save some space in the barf bag for the import results, they are terrible - huge miss on these.

Demand in China has been showing evidence of slowing. This is a nail in the coffin.

December 2018 Data - Yuan Terms

  • China trade balance comes in at CNY 395bn, expected CNY 345bn, prior was CNY 306bn
  • Exports 0.2% y/y, expected 6.6%, prior was 10.2%... BIG MISS
  • Imports -3.1% y/y, expected 12.0%, prior was 7.8% … even bigger miss

December 2018 Data - US Dollar Terms

  • China trade balance USD 57.06bn, expected $51.6bn, prior was $44.7bn
  • Exports -4.4% y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 5.4%
  • Imports -7.6% y/y, expected 4.5%, prior was 3.0%

Tariff Man

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Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low

The Financial Times reports Chinese Investment in the US Slumps to 7-Yr Low

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Including $13bn in US asset divestitures by Chinese investors, China’s net US investment actually shrank by $8bn in 2018.

Negative Revisions

Worst China Data in 15 Years

Expect "Greatest Deal Ever"

Both the US and China desperately need a deal.

So, as I stated 5 days ago, Expect a Deal With China, Just Don't Expect Much From It.

And should there be a deal, expect announcements of the "greatest deal ever" no matter how trivial the deal really is.

Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed

In case you missed it, Europe Likely in Recession Now: Germany, France, Italy Production Collapsed

German, French, and Italian industrial production collapsed in November. Italy GDP is negative for 3rd Quarter.

A global recession is on deck.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock