Most Significant Step in 25 Years?
This breakthrough was made possible by President @realDonaldTrump’s leadership—and it provides a foundation for further advances toward regional peace in the future.https://t.co/Mv9Ip3BzHh pic.twitter.com/mZ6lMx8emK
— The White House 45 Archived (@WhiteHouse45) August 17, 2020
CNN Toes the Line
Please consider the UAE-Israel announcement proves the folly of warming to Iran by Michael Oren.
(CNN)The impending peace agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel is a game-changer for the entire Middle East.
More than its economic and diplomatic potential, though, the UAE-Israel accord is of immense strategic value. It signifies the emergence of a united Middle Eastern front against Iran. Such an alliance was necessitated by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the Iran nuclear deal. Contrary to hopes that it would transform Iran into a responsible regional power, the JCPOA bolstered Iranian efforts to gain even greater power in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and support terror worldwide.
By abandoning the nuclear deal in 2018, the United States regained the leverage and the trust needed to broker the UAE-Israel breakthrough.
Israel-UAE Accord is a Mere Sideshow
Next, please consider the Newsweek article the Israel-UAE Accord is a Mere Sideshow by Zaha Hassan.
Peace is good. Friendly relations between belligerent states in a fragile region plagued by conflict? That’s a hallelujah moment, or so it might seem at first glance. But despite the hype, the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates announced by President Trump on Thursday (dubbed the “Abraham Accord”) to normalize relations between the two countries is not a miracle of biblical proportions. It’s cold, hard political opportunism taken at the expense of Palestinians. It is political theater in which Palestinians and the remains of their homeland offer a convenient backdrop. The UAE may wish to portray itself as Palestine’s Arab savior, pulling Israel back from the brink of illegally annexing more Palestinian land, but the reality is that Palestinians and their rights had nothing to do with it.
For years, the UAE has been enjoying the benefits associated with military, intelligence and technological cooperation with Israel, but behind the scenes. So why be that Gulf state to step into the fray of Arab public opinion as the first—though likely not the last—to tear up the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which offered Israel peace and normal relations with Arab states and dozens of other Muslim countries, in exchange for an end to Israel’s now 53-year-old military occupation of Palestinian land? Blame it on the U.S. presidential elections and Trump’s pandering to right-wing Evangelicals and big pro-Israel donors. Blame it on a microcopic virus that is taking down the unmasked and untethered president of the United States. Blame it on the fact that Arab regimes of questionable repute and in need of refurbishing their tarnished image believe that the road to redemption in Washington runs through Israel.
And why would Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promise to temper his territorial ambitions for a Greater Israel in exchange for open diplomatic ties with a small Gulf state? He hasn’t. He has only pledged to “suspend” his annexation plans. Postponing annexation for a little while—until after November, perhaps?—in order to have the UAE and maybe other Arab Gulf countries, or even a Muslim-majority country on the African continent announce normalized relations, is a much smarter move, politically.
Who is Zaha Hassan?
Zaha Hassan is visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program, and former coordinator and senior legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team during Palestine’s bid for UN membership.
Who is Michael Oren?
Michael Oren, formerly Israel’s ambassador to the United States, Knesset Member, and deputy minister in the Prime Minister’s office.
Political Propaganda at CNN and Newsweek
Both views are political propaganda, not independent analysis.
Political Propaganda by Trump
Donald Trump says he Expects Saudi Arabia to join UAE-Israel Deal.
Saudi Arabia has different views.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan ruled out the possibility until the Palestinian issue is resolved.
“Peace must be achieved with the Palestinians” on the basis of international agreements as a pre-condition for any normalisation of relations, Prince Faisal told reporters during a visit to Berlin on Wednesday.
Prince Faisal said the kingdom remained committed to peace with Israel on the basis of a 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Saudi Arabia, which does not recognise Israel, drew up the 2002 initiative by which Arab nations offered to normalise ties with Israel in return for a statehood deal with the Palestinians and full Israeli withdrawal from territory captured in 1967.
Lie of the Day
Trump called the UAE-Israel accord a good agreement and said: “Countries that you wouldn’t even believe that want to come into that deal.” He did not name any other countries besides Saudi Arabia.
And Saudi Arabia itself is a lie.
Behind this deal, what’s going on?
F-35 Fighters Jets For Sale
https://twitter.com/MaryFranErvin/status/1297610460271796225
Trump is ready to sell F-35 to UAE despite Israel’s dissatisfaction. pic.twitter.com/ijfBAUGbVD
— Middle East in the Field (@EastFild) August 22, 2020
Trump: UAE bid for F-35s ‘under review’; Netanyahu confirms he sought IAF stance https://t.co/kMCNcP2sLO via @timesofisrael
— Subramanian Swamy (@Swamy39) August 20, 2020
Let’s go back to the Nuclear Accord Deal and see what’s what.
Iran Honoring Commitments?
June 14, 2017 PolitiFact asks Is Iran complying with the nuclear deal?
The prevailing view among foremost authorities is that Iran has complied with the deal.
The U.S. State Department, which is required to report to Congress every 90 days on Iran’s compliance, also certified in April that the Islamic Republic is living up to its end of the deal.
PolitFact noted minor violations.
The deal says Iran can keep 130 metric tons of “heavy water,” a modified liquid used in some nuclear reactors. However, Iran has twice crept over its limit, according to the IAEA, each time by a fraction of one ton.
Daryl Kimball, the executive director Arms Control Association, downplayed the heavy water issue as a “minor infraction,” and noted that Iran currently does not have a functioning heavy water reactor. In other words, from a practical standpoint, the issue is essentially moot because excessive heavy water wouldn’t move Iran closer to building a nuclear weapon.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, wrote in a June 5 analysis of the IAEA’s report said “Iran appears to be complying more strictly with JCPOA limitations over which it was facing controversy, such as the heavy water cap.”
September 26, 2017: Trump’s Top General Says Iran Honoring Nuke Deal
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Tuesday joined other members of President Donald Trump’s cabinet in confirming that Iran is complying with the 2015 nuclear deal that has put a temporary halt to its nuclear weapons program.
“The briefings I have received indicate that Iran is adhering to its JCPOA obligations,” Gen. Joseph Dunford wrote in answers to questions in advance of his hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, using an acronym for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
April 19, 2019: IAEA Says Iran Abiding by Nuclear Deal
“Iran is implementing its nuclear commitments,” said Yukiya Amano, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The agency has had access to “all the sites and locations in Iran which it needed to visit.”
Summation
- US State Department: Iran honoring the terms.
- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Iran honoring the terms.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran honoring the terms.
- Arms Control Association: Iran honoring the terms.
- Every other signee of the accord: Iran honoring the terms.
Trump alone says differently.
Which Side Rings True?
Trump undid the only thing Obama accomplished: Getting Iran to stop its nuclear program.
100% of US allies agreed. Even US military said Iran honored the terms.
Like the fool he is, Trump poked his finger in everyone’s eyes. And in the process drove Iran into China’s arms.
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) August 23, 2020
This is not close.
Trump undid the single best thing Obama did.
Mish
So since Iran was apparently following the terms of the deal Obama negotiated with only minor infractions then the next question is WHAT KIND of TERMS were in that Iran deal Obama negotiated…
Remember that Obama, Hillary Clinton, Huma Abedin, Susan Rice are all fans of Muslim Brotherhood and Obama started his presidency with an apology tour of Middle East and Obama was FINE with Muslim Brotherhood taking control of Egypt and was angry that General El-Sisi had to take control after Muslim Brotherhood started committing acts of violence against christians and moderate muslims in Egypt and El-Sisi put Muslim Brotherhood leadership in prison.
Remember that Obama was FINE with Iranian General Soleimani paying shia-militias in Iraq bounties for every killed American soldier and Obama did NOTHING despite these Iranian bounties leading to the deaths of almost 1000 American soldiers under Obama killed by shia militias wanting the bounties.
Trump sent a missile to kill Soleimani and others in Iranian leadership and Hezbollah leadership.
This is why Democrats and media have grabbed the BS claim that Putin is paying bounties for Taleban to kill Americans in Afghanistan which is the most ass backwards theory ever since Putin hates Taleban and extreme muslims and islamists.
That claim is concocted up by CIA and other intelligence which wants forever war and USA to be in Afghanistan in 100 years to create continued profits for military-industrial-complex.
Remember that Obama massively boosted muslim immigration to USA that was stupidly started by George W. Bush after CAIR lied to Bush that 80-90% of muslims voted for Bush and Republicans in 2000 election so Bush started flooding swing states with muslim immigrants and found out in 2004 elections that they voted for Democrats 80-90% of time and Obama continued the flooding of swing states with muslims to make them blue states since muslims vote 80-90% Democrats in 2004,2008, 2012, 2016.
Remember that under Obama CIA was arming FSA (Free Syrian Army) units that instantly defected and joined ISIS once they had gotten the arms shipments.
McCain visited to meet with FSA/ISIS while still being the war monger he was.
Obama also REFUSED to bomb ISIS oil convoys to Turkey and thereby allowed ISIS to fund their operations and Obama was stupidly clinging onto his earlier description of ISIS as Junior Varsity Team before ISIS took control of most of Syria and large parts of Iraq and Obama’s hate towards Lt.Gen Flynn dates to this since as head of DIA Flynn criticized Obama’s unbelievable idiocy of the JV Team comment and attitude toward ISIS and Flynn was FIRED by Obama as a result.
Benghazi was about Obama giving shoulder launched missiles to Libyan opposition (Muslim Brotherhood affiliates and Al-Qaida/ISIS) to fight Gaddafi and then those shoulder launched missiles ending up in Afghanistan where American helicopters were shot down with them and Obama/Clinton tried to buy back the missiles through the Benghazi consulate but islamists decided to keep the shoulder-launched missiles and instead loot the consulate and steal the tens of millions the consulate had for the shoulder-launched missile buyback.
Obama is the one RESPONSIBLE for the flood of migrants to Europe through Libya since 2013 at 150k-200k a year that Italy pushed further north without registration to get rid of them.
Under Gaddafi Iraly had a deal with Libya to STOP the African migrants and send them back to their home countries most of which are peaceful.
Obama is RESPONSIBLE for the 2015 crisis of millions rushing from Turkey to Greece and onward to Germany since Merkel was trying to COPY Obama with her statements that started the rush and the syrians were coming to Turkey in large numbers because of Obama’s policies and the ISIS enlargement to Iraq made lots or iraqis also rush to Europe after Turkey gave Iraqis visa freedom to boost tourism to Turkey at the start of 2015.
Greece copied Italy and just did NOT register the asylum seekers (out of 1+ million Greece registered just 11 000 in 2015) and instead just pushed them north toward Germany and this policy caused more people to want to come when they heard one could get to Germany and get free apartment, free welfare money, free everything and family re-unification when one went to Greece.
Greece itself gives NO GOODIES so if borders would be CLOSED nobody would go to Greece.
In my opinion the Obama Iran deal was mostly kick the can and take credit now moment (and bow to muslims like Obama did with the apology tour and like CIA’s communist voting Brennan did by speaking in Arabic and apologizing for USA) since all the requirements placed on Iran were to be removed in time and starting in 2020 the deal has NO LIMITS on how many centrifuges Iran can have.
All well and good, but unfortunately, you did not support your opinions with any cites. You confused the U.S. making the sensible decision, for once, of not installing a
modern version of the Shah in any country in which the leadership was toppled in “the Arab spring”, with “cozying up to the muslim brotherhood”. You dogwhistled the trumpian-birther-obama-is-a-kenyan-born-muslim meme.
The UAE “gentleman” behind that principality’s role, along with the indicted Israeli “leader” and the impeached U.S. president in a pre-election window dressing bit of diplomacy where none actually took place, should be showcased. He is a busy guy.
It is mere coincidence Betsy Devos is Sec. of Ed. in Trump’s cabinet, and her brother, Eric Prince retained the consulting services at his Blackwater mercenary group, of now convicted child porn aficionado, George Nader, who just happened to “broker” a multi hundred million $$$ “contract” for Elliot Broidy’s secuirty firm with the gov. of UAE, and UAE arranged Prince’s meeting in the Seychelles with Russians he just happened, he said, to encounter spontaneously, and now, the indicted Netenyahu applies lipstick to his own lips, Trump’s and to the UAE leader’s! The bi-partisan US Senate Intel. Committee referred the conflicting testimony of Bannon and Prince to the DOJ for investigation of possible perjury, related specifically to the Seychelles meeting, and the testimony of Flynn and Kushner, as well.
Read the last line in the May 26, 2017, WaPo reporting excerpted below. The UAE official who did not notify the Dept. of State he was coming to the U.S., as is customary, was Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan .
“Is UAE’s Mohammed Bin Zayed a Machiavelli, Mussolini or both?
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, dubbed most powerful man in Middle East, doesn’t need peace to get territories or to protect his country’s borders. But he has his …
Haaretz”
3 days ago
“Mohammed bin Zayed: UAE strongman who normalized ties with Israel
ABU DHABI — Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the first Gulf leader to strike a deal normalizing relations with Israel, has long been seen as a …
The Times of Israel”
11 days ago
“Russian ambassador told Moscow that Kushner wanted secret communications channel with Kremlin
By Ellen Nakashima ,Adam Entous and Greg Miller
May 26, 2017
….The State Department, the White House National Security Council and U.S. intelligence agencies all have the ability to set up secure communications channels with foreign leaders, though doing so for a transition team would be unusual.
Trump’s advisers were similarly secretive about meetings with leaders from the United Arab Emirates. The Obama White House only learned that the crown prince of Abu Dhabi was flying to New York in December to see Kushner, Flynn and Stephen K. Bannon, another top Trump adviser, because U.S. border agents in the UAE spotted the Emirate leader’s name on a flight manifest…..”
I will go on the record here. There will be a nuclear device detonated somewhere in the middle east by the end of the decade and it will be because Trump allowed multiple countries to proliferate nuclear weapons under the guise of selling them weapons.
Damn man that’s next level. I hear people blame Trump for just about everything but a nuke going off being his fault?
I true idiot blames the president for a future problem that he unlike every other president in the last 28 years he has hasn’t done. How many countries did Obama have a hand in overthrowing? 4-5 or 6?
Trump for all of his faults has not started any war or overthrew any governments. No wonder people hate him. He is not towing the line.
Obama is responsible for Libya, Syria, ISIS enlargement to Iraq, rush of asylum seekers through Libya from peaceful African countries to Europe since 2013, rush of millions of syrians to Europe in 2015 and early 2016 until Austria and Balkan states CLOSED THEIR BORDERS and tens of thousands of Syrians stayed in Greece crying about not getting to Germany, Obama called ISIS JV Team and allowed CIA to arm FSA (FRee Syrian Army) despite repeated movement from FSA to ISIS and Al-Nusra (al-Qaida), Obama allowed ISIS to fund itself by not bombing ISIS oil convoys to Turkey, Obama KILLED thousands of American soldiers needlessly during his 8 years with stupid “win hearts and minds” instructions to American soldiers that had them walking around in Afghanistan and Iraq just waiting to be ambushed.
Obama should be stripped of the Nobel Peace Prize that was given to Obama just for being black and getting elected.
Obama was a WAR-MONGER and employed WAR-MONGER extraordinaire in Hillary Clinton who was cackling on TV how Gaddafi got killed after USA got involved and USA/FRANCE together bombed Gaddafi so much that the islamist rebels won and turned Libya into a basket case.
It’s just delusional to hate Trump as much as most people do. It’s a religion now.
Countries that got handed to Putin by Trump and their natural resources now belong to Russia: Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Afghanistan, portions of Iraq and Iran. People are so busy cheering on Trump for NOT leading and ceding literally everything to Putin. We are headed towards oligarchy with no chance of ever returning.
This is what it looks like:
A vote for Trump is a vote fo Putin at the foreign policy level.
Signed,
A 2016 Trump Voter
It’s a prediction.
There will be lots of nukes detonated in lots of places.
And it will be because, for a brief moment in history, even beings as generally dumb as humans, did manage to figure out how to build nukes. And once that cat is out of the bag, there’s no way to put it back in. Despite humanity, at least The West, now having regressed to where such a feat of understanding and engineering could never even be contemplated.
Trying to pin the blame for every knife wound on some poor stoneage sap, for “allowing knives to proliferate”, completely misses the point.
The land was promised to the children of Abraham. Its a family argument. And we should stay out of it. . . .
Don’t have the references at hand, but even the so-called intelligence “community” agrees with the assessment of JCPOA observance.
Even if not, the US would have had the rest of the international community on-side to legitimately pressure compliance.
Most likely the US then saw it as a weak deal and prefers uncomplicated isolationist policy that doesn’t rely on wider oversight or involvement for if it goes hot, which is basically israeli covert strike first policy.
I dont agree it was the only thing Obama accomplished. Your perspective is completely skewed.
I’m scratching my head to come up with a single foreign policy accomplishment achieved by the Obama administration other than the Iran deal(does the Paris accord qualify as foreign policy?). He comes off as a better President than Trump but that’s a really low bar. I think Mish is right on this one.
Uhhhh…which administration killed Osama Bin Laden ?
Which administration destroyed ISIS?
Trump.
Which administration allowed ISIS to get larger, sell oil to Turkey and kill lots of christians, moderate muslims and yazidis while calling ISIS “JV Team” and having CIA arm ISIS through FSA (Free Syrian Army) whose fighters always defected to ISIS or Al-Nusra after getting guns from CIA?
Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Which administration killed ISIS-leader Al-Baghdadi?
Trump
Which administration killed Iranian General Soleimani and others including Hezbollah operational leader who had run Iran’s program to pay bounties for every killed American soldier to shia militants in Iraq through a program that led to the killing of almost 1000 American soldiers?
Trump
Which administration allowed Iran and Soleimani to operate with total impunity and bend over and gave Iran a sweetheart deal WHILE Soleimani was paying bounties for every killed American soldier?
Obama
I don’t know why you type this drivel, we give bipartisan support to ISIS. They’re a proxy army we use in the MENA region.
There are countries we don’t want ISIS to operate in (wealthy Gulf monarchies and Egypt come to mind), but we support them in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Turkey, and Libya for starters.
Why can’t you admit that the two party system is a scam, rather than being a red team bot?
You got the wrong dude. I was never an Obama supporter. I actually did vote for Trump in 2016 but it has been a disaster worse than previous presidents. Trump simply is compromised.
The Paris climate deal is a trainwreck since China was allowed to INCREASE their CO2 emissions until year 2030 and their “cut” under Paris deal is to keep the 2030 level after 2030 and after China signed that Obama negotiated Trainwreck China has started building HUNDREDS of new coal powered plants to increase their CO2 emissions as much as possible by 2030 to get a high level of emissions permanently after 2030.
Other developing countries also got permission to increase their CO2 emissions crazily for example Pakistan was given permission to increase their CO2 emissions almost 300% until 2030 from current levels.
The Paris deal is the most stupidest and worst deal in history with Europe and USA kneecapping themselves economically while allowing China and others to increase their CO2 emissions without limits so even if one believes all the UN IPCC projections then the Paris Climate deal makes having any meaningful cuts IMPOSSIBLE since it was all about getting countries to join and media did NOT even look at what countries agreed to when they joined.
something must be done. I’m the first to admit there are flaws. That said, we shouldn’t be trying to wreck our own contribution out of some bitterness that other some other country isn’t doing enough. China’s making improvements as well.
Mish, you seem often rather skeptic about the stance and performance of government agencies. However, you cite their JCPOA confirmations verbatim.
The JCPOA was a bad agreement! Iran violated the NPT, which it signed willingly. Rather than rolling the Iran nuclear program back and penalizing Iran for the NPT violations, the JCPOA formalized Iran’s transgressions. Iran hardly conceded anything in the process.
The wishful thinking that the JCPOA would ease Iran into becoming easier to deal with didn’t materialize.
All that said, once the JCPOA was signed, I still don’t know whether the US should have walked back (despite Obama reportedly cutting corners in the confirmation process in Congress).
Finally, Iran is successful at pressuring both its Suni rivals and Israel. So much so, that Suni Arab countries seem to soften their stance vs. Israel. Wow!
Has Israel/”Israel” signed the NPT ?
What does “…ease Iran into becoming easier to deal with” imply ? The US backed the Iraqi invasion of Iran, then invaded Iraq and now has bases along the entire gulf. The only reason the US wants to deal with Iran is because it opposes israel and funds opposition to it, as well as aiding Syria against the western backed civil war there.
Saudi and other Sunni states didn’t get pushed west, they have worked with the west the whole time. States, the average arab has own view on all of this.
Israel is not a signatory to the NPT.
One must be motivated by narrow interests to attack the UAE-Israel agreement. Peace is a good think – isn’t it?
I fail to see the link with the alleged Palestinian interest. This is like arguing that the US and UK must remain hostile till the Northern Ireland issue is resolved to the satisfaction of all parties involved.
Celebrating the agreement as a monumental breakthrough is an exaggeration, obviously. It serves the political needs of Trump and Netanyahu. It might also serve the UAE stance vs Iran.
I’m not convinced about the weight of the F35 purchase argument. Was the agreement pivotal to this end? I’m skeptic.
I read in other places the argument that the agreement eases the process of F35 purchase. Not sure how credible this is
No it was a good agreement, it took years to finalize and all european countries agreed and signed the agreement, only people who dont like this agreement is jewish americans, nothing is good enough for them until Iran is crushed .
Arguing that only Jews and Americans object to the agreement is prejudice.
In fact most of the gulf countries and some other Arab countries objected strongly to the JCPOA.
How long did it take to finalize the JCPOA is irrelevant to whether it is a good agreement. The case can be made that no agreement is better than the JCPOA.
I do wonder if F-35’s really improve UAE security but rather make some rich rulers feel powerful. Strategically if I’m the UAE worried about Iran I’d probably want anti-missiles, missiles, radar, high speed gun boats and some diesel powered submarines to help patrol the waters. Iran does not have a formidable airforce. An F-35 sale makes no sense to me.
If the UAE air force went into battle how many minutes would it be viable?
Planes are good, but do not make an “air force”.
Maybe not, but the drunken F-35 rides are gonna be awesome!
Sure it makes sense, the US has to sell some and make out other countries want to buy some. Question is what they promised/threatened UAE to take on the deal and declare ties with israel.
you have it backwards. the promise was F-35’s in exchange for declaring what was already a known relationship with Israel
The MIC lobby wants/needs to sell planes but, in order to do so, they have to get past the Zionist lobby.
The pro-Israel lobby. No need for inciteful language.
It is hard to really call the Iran ‘treaty’ an Obama accomplishment, because as with the Paris Accords he did not even try to get the constitutionally required ‘advice and consent’ of the Senate. He could have made the effort and made an appeal to the American people, but instead he just gave up on the idea without even trying. This opened the door for Trump to simply reverse both actions.
As long as the west bank Palestinians have no self determination or semblance of democratic voice and another 2 million Palestinians are kept under a virtual prison in Gaza there will continue to be long term issues that at one point or another will surface.
Doubly so since, even in captivity, they handily outperform every segment of fatally Westernized Israel, aside from perhaps those too conservative to join the IDF, at future-warrior production.
While certainly an impressive-for-size military, and even technological, power, it’s not clear whether how Israel will survive as The West weakens and becomes less able and willing to support it at great cost.
Five countries that could be next to make peace with Israel link to jpost.com
Israel and the UAE were already working together albeit quietly and under the radar and one of the worst kept secrets in politics Yea this looks driven by politics. Israel gave up almost nothing. UAE gained little on the surface. The notion this was driven by arm sales is an obvious speculation. Trump gets a political achievement which he has yet to achieve. The much heralded Kushner Palestinian peace deal fizzled.
There’s clearly a Sunni Shia divide in the middle east. Israel Arab was never really the true conflict. Iran’s moves have pushed the UAE and Saudi Arabia to find common ground with Israel although Saudi Arabia is unlikely to formalize any time soon. In the Middle east the enemy of my enemy is my friend was never more true
“Israel Arab was never really the true conflict. “
Israel fought Egypt…. And its fundamental conflict was with Arab Palestinians…….
Iran’s opposition to Israel, only started taking off after the revolution.
What has happened over the past decade or two, is that the regimes in many/most Arab countries, have become increasingly at odds with their own populations. And it is only those increasingly besieged-at-home regimes, not Arabs in general, which are now in a position precarious enough that they are willing to cut deals with the “devil” in order to save their own positions of privilege.
Problem is, history has turned against them. America is on the wane, and is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Whether China will be as singularly friendly to Israel, is anybody’s guess, but probably not, as they don’t have much of a Jewish lobby, and the Chinese seem more concerned about purely pragmatic issues of oil and Suez/trade-route access.
Arab regimes who are only there on account of an all powerful America, won’t be anymore, once America no longer has the resources to take care of unrest at home, much less abroad. And without the US keeping those ever less representative-of-their-poplations regimes propped up, any “deal” with an Israel also weakened by America fading into the rear view mirror, isn’t worth the toilet paper it’s written on.
Israel and China have decent relations. They’d be better but Trump gas issues. China bid on a large project and Trump applied pressure to nix it. Arab Israeli conflict hasn’t been since 1973 and even then was largely a proxy war between U.S. and U.S.S.R For decades the Sunni Shia divide is a more accurate description of the Middle East divide
Carbon Era is ending. Once that happens the West will care less about Saudi Arabia and the other oil producers
Iran was ruled by an American puppet before the revolution, so the government in no way reflected the sentiments of the people, for whom Jerusalem and Palestine is very important. The Shia/Sunni age-old hatred and millennia of war is completely bogus … the last war was in 680. They often pray at the same mosques, Iran supports Sunni Hamas. This trope is what the West likes to tell itself to shift the blame for its deadly manipulations on the victims. The West has always been trying to exploit linguistic and ethnic differences whenever it appears convenient.
Allegiances of the illegitimate medieval style owners of various Arab oil kingdoms means nothing, since they themselves can disappear easily with social unrest and developments; the Arab masses do not support them. United Arab Emeritus is a great Freudian slip in the tweets Mish lists. Besides oil under the sand, they all have fake economies and fake societies built around air-conditioning and cadillacs, anything to do with technology depends on Western ex-pats, all the rest of the work is done semi-slave migrant labor.
Currently, there is serious conflict between the Sunni and Shia in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan….