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Congratulations to Chicago and Las Vegas, the Only Major Cities Whose Home Prices Have Declined Since 2007

The Chicago and Las Vegas metro areas are the only Case-Shiller top-10 metros whose prices have not yet exceeded their 2006-2007 housing bubble high.
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Case Shiller Home Price Index National and Top 10 by City 2021-03

The latest Case-Shiller data is as of March 2021. 

Although home prices are not in the CPI, for an alternate calculation I am giving the Fed a break it does not deserve with that replication. Home prices have risen 111 consecutive months through May 2021.

Case-Shiller 10-City Comparison 

Case-Shiller 10-City Comparison 2021-03

Case-Shiller 10-City Percent Change

Case-Shiller 10-City Percent Change 2021-03

10 Key Points

  1. Chicago home prices are down 7.28% from March 2007
  2. Las Vegas prices are down 6.42% from April 2006.
  3. Chicago, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, and D.C., have negative or minimal appreciation since the housing bubble peak.
  4. Denver had the shallowest decline (-11.64%) and the largest percentage increase (85.39%) since its bubble peak. 
  5. Trough to now, the biggest gainers have been San Diego (172.1%), San Francisco (154.97%), Denver (109.81%), and Los Angeles (108.45%)
  6. Nationally, home prices declined 20.61% from the bubble peak to trough. 
  7. Nationally, home prices rose 66.30% from the trough to now. 
  8. Nationally, prices are 32.03% higher than the previous peak.
  9. 10-City prices underperformed the national averages to the trough (-32.97% vs -20.67%).
  10. 10-City prices underperformed the national averages from trough to now (16.83% vs 32.03%).

Important Note

Those are NOT median prices. Case-Shiller tracks resales of the exact same home over time.

Questions of the Day

  • Do you really want to be chasing housing now? If so, where?
  • Who will you be buying from? 
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Note that Blackstone Became the World’s Biggest Landlord (paywalled, the idea is what's important). 

Also, please see Existing Home Sales Decline 4 Consecutive Months, Lowest Reading in 11 Months.

The WSJ reports Blackstone Bets $6 Billion on Buying and Renting Homes

Here's a few paragraphs that caught my eye. 

The investment firm confirmed Tuesday that it has reached a deal to acquire Home Partners of America Inc., which owns more than 17,000 houses throughout the U.S. Home Partners buys homes, rents them out and offers its tenants the chance to eventually buy. 

Blackstone was among the big investment firms to buy houses in bulk in the aftermath of the subprime crisis, when lenders sold off foreclosed homes at marked-down prices. The New York firm built a portfolio of tens of thousands of single-family homes, then rented them out through a company called Invitation Homes Inc.

In 2019, Blackstone exited from the single-family rental business when it sold its last shares in Invitation Homes, which had become the largest U.S. firm in this industry with 80,000 homes for lease. 

The firm is rejoining an expanding roster of Wall Street powerhouses that have acquired single-family rental companies. Canadian property giant Brookfield Asset Management Inc. recently acquired a stake in a landlord that owns more than 10,000 U.S. homes. J.P. Morgan Asset Management and Rockpoint Group LLC also have made big investments in single-family rental operators.

The NAR expects housing inventory to rise. If so, who is selling? Why?

If not, who are you competing with to buy?

In Search of Inflation

  1. How the Fed's Inflation Policies Benefited the Top 1% In Pictures Part 1
  2. How the Fed's Inflation Policies Benefited the Top 1% In Pictures Part 2


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