I spent much more than usual last month stocking up on “stuff.” Been hoarding all the non-perishables of everything I can think of I’ll need for the foreseeable future in the event of shortages and/or price increases. Within a month or two my spending will be way below trend….unless this climate continues. But I’m probably the only prepper, or paranoiac, out there.
randocalrissian
2 years ago
Everyone knows about the supply chain, the clogged sea ports, and was warned to do their holiday shopping early this year. I know my elves have been quite busy. I wonder what portion of the spike could possibly be attributed to early shoppers. It should naturally reflect back in a below expectations number for Nov or Dec.
TexasTim65
2 years ago
Mish, here’s an article I ran across today about Self Driving trucks (which you have not written much about lately)
5.4 million miles driven with no accidents (though there is a human in the cab just in case). According to the article its going to go with no human at all later this fall in Arizona for several weeks more tests as part of the next step.
He will not tell you because that will contradict his assertion that we have…Truck driver shortages. Both cannot be true. We either have driverless trucks traking over or …we have truck drivers shortage, which we do not because truck drivers wages have not come up .
KidHorn
2 years ago
Not adjusted for prices. Pretty much explains the entire increase.
purple squish
2 years ago
Hey Mish, does that 1.7% estimate account for inflation, or is that increase basically a proxy for MoM debasement of the USD?
Nm, I see it isn’t from the first bullet point. Guess consumers are just spending 1.7% more dollars that are roughly that much less valuable. Where am I wrong with that?
The WSJ has a curious headline “Retail Sales Rose by 1.7% in October Despite High Inflation”
Retail sales are not adjusted for inflation. Despite is not the correct word. If consumers bought the same basket of goods they would have paid more for the basket.
I can answer that question. You take 1.70% less the .90 CPI increase you get = .80% real increase in sales which means .80 of the increase was real! Go Team Biden/Harris
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
$US having another (very) good day … something in the air.
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
“Curiously, bond prices are flat on the day, not exactly what one might expect following a blistering report.”
…
Okay, it was “blistering” … and September sales revised UP … but (imo) expected. Since Labor Day MSM has been constantly beating the “better buy it now or it won’t be there later” Holiday drum. Throw in beating rising prices, too. The “tell” always was going to be November + December sales.
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Nm, I see it isn’t from the first bullet point. Guess consumers are just spending 1.7% more dollars that are roughly that much less valuable. Where am I wrong with that?