by Mish

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) contains monthly insight about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, education and medical care to change over time. It also provides Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth, as well as their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest. Expectations are available by age, income, education, numeracy and geography.

Consumer Expectations: Inflation, Labor, Finances

The FRBNY does not provide a chart of spending expectations, but they do provide the data. Here is the chart I created in Excel.

Consumer Spending Expectations

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Trends at the median and low-end are easy enough to spot. At the high end, expectations are well above the trendline.

Thanks to Fed policy, those at the top seem to be feelin’ something the rest don’t.

Feelin’ Wealthy, Dudes?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Inflation Expectations Rise, Spending Projections Decline

Every month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York does a survey of consumer expectations: Inflation, spending, earning, and jobs.

Consumer Spending Expectations Rise at Median-to-High End

Consumer spending expectations have bounced a bit since the beginning of the year at the median level and at the high end. Despite the bounce, none of the trendlines have turned up.

Consumer Spending Expectations Plunge: A Curious Thing

The Fed and most economists are convinced robust growth in consumer spending is just around the corner.

Consumer Expectations: Home Prices, Spending, Household Income, Inflation

Every month, the NY Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations. The lead chart is from the Fed, I created the others

Spending, Inflation, Income Expectations: Consumers Expect No Improvement

A Fed study of consumer expectations projects a rise in spending but no overall economic improvement a year from now.

NY Fed Study Shows Household Spending Projections Continue to Slide

Every month, the New York Fed conducts a household survey of consumer expectations. Let's investigate the data.

Personal Income Up But Real Consumer Spending Declines Second Month

The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report shows personal income rose 0.4% but consumer spending rose a scant 0.1% in February.

Consumer Spending Expectations Down Again: Dear Fed, Why Don’t You Believe Your Own Survey?

Fed Chair Janet Yellen keeps citing consumer confidence and jobs as reasons consumer spending and inflation will pick up.

Inflation-Adjusted Spending Declines Most Since September 2009: Stagflation Coming?

Today’s Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumer spending rose less than economists predicted and far less than inflation. The result is a big decline in real spending. Economists surveyed by Econoday missed the mark once again.