by Mish

Economists base that belief on soaring consumer confidence numbers and on wage earnings growth.

The curious thing is the Fed does not believe its own survey of spending growth projections.

Every month the New York Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations(inflation, spending, wage growth, income, home prices, jobs).

Consumers’ Optimism about Their Overall Financial Situation Climbs to Series High
The April survey shows that while household income growth expectations increased and respondents’ outlook for their households’ overall financial situation reached a new series high, spending growth expectations dropped sharply—falling to their lowest level since the start of our survey in June 2013. Inflation expectations increased at both the one-year-ahead and three-year-ahead horizons, while inflation uncertainty declined.

The Fed provides charts for inflation expectations, the labor market, and household finance but not spending expectations. I downloaded the data and produced this interesting chart.

High = Top 25%
Low = Bottom 25%

Spending Expectations Plunge

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Spending Expectation Synopsis

  • Since January, one-year look ahead spending expectations of the top 25% plunged from 9.11% to 5.91%.
  • Since January, the median look ahead spending projections fell from 3.13% to 2.58%, the lowest number since inception.
  • Low-end spending expectations are in negative territory for the first time.

The New York Fed survey, at least in regards to spending, has been reasonably accurate.

Nonetheless, the Fed places its faith in consumer confidence numbers that have been proven to track the stock market, not consumer spending.

Financial Situation New Series High?

The opening blurb of the report says “respondents’ outlook for their households’ overall financial situation reached a new series high“.

I cannot find a category for “overall financial situation” on the Excel spreadsheet.

Is that some sort of aggregate (fictional) hashing of various other categories to derive the desired result?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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Every month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York does a survey of consumer expectations: Inflation, spending, earning, and jobs.