I created the above chart after downloading data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- The median and low-end spending expectations peaked in April of 2014. The high-end peaked in August of 2013.
- Compared to the Excel generated trendlines, there has been a decent bounce in spending expectations at the high vs. but no bounce at the low end.
- Compared to December of 2015, there has been a nice bounce at the median and high end, but not the low end.
- Compared to February of 2016, the only bounce is at the high end.
- None of the trendlines have turned up.
Here are a few other charts from the report.
I don’t have any faith in inflation expectations, but the Fed does.
Inflation expectations are “subdued” as are income growth expectations, and household finance expectations.
If the Fed wishes to measure “confidence” the overall appearance of these charts isn’t particularly inspiring.
The bright spot is spending expectations at the high end, perhaps a measure of stock market exuberance and bonuses that most will never see.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock