by Mish

I created the above chart after downloading data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  • The median and low-end spending expectations peaked in April of 2014. The high-end peaked in August of 2013.
  • Compared to the Excel generated trendlines, there has been a decent bounce in spending expectations at the high vs. but no bounce at the low end.
  • Compared to December of 2015, there has been a nice bounce at the median and high end, but not the low end.
  • Compared to February of 2016, the only bounce is at the high end.
  • None of the trendlines have turned up.

Here are a few other charts from the report.

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I don’t have any faith in inflation expectations, but the Fed does.

Inflation expectations are “subdued” as are income growth expectations, and household finance expectations.

If the Fed wishes to measure “confidence” the overall appearance of these charts isn’t particularly inspiring.

The bright spot is spending expectations at the high end, perhaps a measure of stock market exuberance and bonuses that most will never see.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Consumer Spending Expectations Continue to Decline: Feelin’ Wealthy, Dudes?

Despite the two-month rise in consumer spending, consumer spending expectations as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) Survey of Consumer Expectations continue to drop.

Consumer Spending Expectations Plunge: A Curious Thing

The Fed and most economists are convinced robust growth in consumer spending is just around the corner.

Inflation Expectations Rise, Spending Projections Decline

Every month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York does a survey of consumer expectations: Inflation, spending, earning, and jobs.

Consumer Spending Expectations Down Again: Dear Fed, Why Don’t You Believe Your Own Survey?

Fed Chair Janet Yellen keeps citing consumer confidence and jobs as reasons consumer spending and inflation will pick up.

Consumer Expectations: Home Prices, Spending, Household Income, Inflation

Every month, the NY Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations. The lead chart is from the Fed, I created the others

Spending, Inflation, Income Expectations: Consumers Expect No Improvement

A Fed study of consumer expectations projects a rise in spending but no overall economic improvement a year from now.

Consumer Spending Projections

Every month the NY Fed surveys consumers as to what they will spend in the upcoming year. The Downtrend is still intact.

Construction Spending Rises 0.8% vs. 1.0% Expectation: Nonresidential Rolling Over?

Construction spending, up 0.8% in February, was a bit weaker than the Bloomberg Econoday Consensus estimate of 1.0%.

Consumer Spending Barely Moves Despite Jump in Income: Deflationary Headwinds?

Today’s personal income and outlays report shows consumer spending rose 0.1% while income rose 0.4%. Prices fell 0.1% while core prices rose 0.1%.