Initial Claims

Initial state Claims August 6 Data

The US Department of Labor reports seasonally-adjusted initial claims fell to 1,186,000 for the week ending August 1. 

That's the lowest total since March.

However, continued claims (those considered unemployed at the state level) are 16,107,000. 

Four Continued Claim Factors

  1. Continued claims lag initial claims by a week.
  2. People can find a job and drop off the unemployment rolls.
  3. People can expire their benefits and drop off the rolls.
  4. People can retire and drop off the rolls.

Note: My Initial Claims and Continued Claims charts are Seasonally-Adjusted. The following PUA and Totals are NOT Seasonally-Adjusted.

Primary PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020 August 6 Report

Primary PUA covers those who are not eligible to make state claims. The report lags initial claims by 2 weeks and continued claims by 1 week.

All Continued Claims

All Continued Claims in 2020 August 6

All continued claims rose this period but that is due to the week delay between reports. Barring revisions, all continued claims will drop next month.

Key Numbers

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  • Continuing State Claims: 16,107,000
  • Total Claims: 31,308,678

Key Ideas

  • Over 30 million people are on pandemic assistance.
  • At least 16,107,000 people are not working any hours.
  • An additional 15,201,678 people do not qualify for state unemployment insurance but have been collecting $600 weekly assistance checks.
  • An unknown number of those 15+ million are working part-time.

Pandemic Checks Stopped

On July 25 the Clock Ran Out on $600 in Weekly Unemployment Benefits as Republicans and Democrats bickered over the next round of stimulus.

On July 29, Trump announced "So Far Apart on Covid Deal That We Don't Really Care"

On August 5, I commented Trump Weighs Imposing His Stimulus Plan, Constitution be Damned

Specifically, Trump discussed suspension of the payroll tax, an extension of federal unemployment benefits with cuts the Republicans want, an eviction moratorium, and another round of individual stimulus checks.

"I will do it myself if I have to. I have a lot of powers with respect to executive orders," said Trump despite the fact he has no constitutional basis to do so.

There is merit in debating those ideas. However, there is no merit in breaking the constitution to do so.

Millions of Workers Suffering From Repeat Layoffs

Also note that Millions of Workers Suffering From Repeat Layoffs.

Clock Ticking

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking. This Saturday will be the second week of a missing $600 check.

Mish