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About a month ago Trump announced there were 15 US cases headed to zero. On March 4 Trump proclaimed "we are talking about very small numbers in the US".

On March 17, Trump told this amazing bald-faced lie: "This is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."

Number of Cases Jumped Over 5,000 Today

The number of cases in the US has jumped by over 5,000 today to nearly 25% and there are still many hours left in the day.

Stata are from Worldometers.

US Coronavirus Cases

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That is a "what if" not a prediction. Moreover we expected a leap due to increased testing.

US Coronavirus Deaths

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23 % of US Ordered to Stay at Home

  • 23% of the US Population is ordered to "stay at home" after governors in California (40 million residents), New York State (20 million), Illinois (13 million), and Connecticut (3.5 million) ordered nonessential workers to remain at home to slow the spread of coronavirus.
  • Connecticut issues a "stay at home" order for its 3.5 million residents that goes into effect Monday at 8 p.m
  • Texas declared a public health disaster for the first time in more than 100 years.
  • Illinois: Governor Pritzker issues an immediate "stay at home" order for all residents "to avoid the loss of potentially tens of thousands of lives" The order goes into effect at 5 p.m. Saturday.
  • New York: Governor Cuomo orders 100% of all non-essential workers to stay home.
  • Pennsylvania: Governor Wolf orders all businesses that aren’t ‘life-sustaining’ to close.
  • California: Governor Gavin Newson orders the state’s 40 million residents to “stay at home.” The order is “open ended.” Modeling predicts that 56% of the state’s population will be infected over the next 8 weeks. Only essential businesses will be allowed to remain open. All indoor public and private gatherings with 10 or more people are prohibited.

Stay Home Orders

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New York now has over 10,000 cases and is doing more tests than any other state in the United States, according to Governor Cuomo, who said 45,000 tests have been performed in New York State, compared to 23,000 in California (which has twice the population).

Faster Test Results

Converting Gyms to Beds

Italy vs New York

US vs World

  • Speed of Coronavirus Pandemic in US is now the fastest in the world.
  • We’ve surpassed China on 16th days after 100th case, & still only 25% of country on lockdown.
  • In a week we’ll have more COVIDー19 cases than in China, likely >100k

New York Temporarily Halts Airline Departures

If You Need to Be Somewhere, Get There Before You Can't

I commented on the above prospect on March 16: If You Need to Be Somewhere, Get There Before You Can't

Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline

Note that Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression

This is getting worse by the day,

Mike "Mish" Shedlock