Please consider Border Closures ‘May Show What a Full-Blown Trade War Looks Like’.
CC secretary general John Denton also called on China – where the number of virus cases has dwindled – to continue with its market reform process once the Covid-19 pandemic was over.
“What you are seeing in a way is kind of an avatar for what happens with protectionism,” Denton said during an interview in Paris, where the ICC is based.
“You’re seeing borders being closed, goods being redirected, supply chains being redesigned, whole sectors of the economy feeling the impact of the closing of borders.
“And if you think about a full-blown trade war, that’s actually what happens,” he said. “I don’t speak in apocalyptic terms – all I’m saying is that it’s an interesting parallel to be drawn.”
Borders Closed
Four European countries have closed their borders, preventing people from arriving or leaving. Italy – the country worst-hit by the coronavirus outside China – is on a nationwide lockdown, affecting at least 60 million people, and Spain announced on Saturday it would do the same.
The Path We Were On
I think Covid-19 is mostly speeding up what would have gradually happened anyway: the developed world is moving away from unfettered trade and capital flows so that individual countries can regain domestic policy initiatives. https://t.co/K4TWTvqN6H via @scmpnews
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) March 16, 2020
Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets says that is the path we were on.
I agree, as Trump has literally been on the edge of triggering Smoot Hawley for a year.
He is an economic fool who still believes “Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win.”
That said, I believe Trump would not have been re-elected, and I am sure his poor handling of the coronavirus has sealed his fate.
Insisting on Made in America Means No Supplies
Trump’s trade war tariffs on medical products from China could contribute to shortages as the US fights the COVID-19 pandemic.
US imports of Chinese medical products hit with Trump’s tariffs fell by 16%, or nearly $200 million, in 2019.
By @SabRod123https://t.co/84JrWLHeIM
— Chad P. Bown (@ChadBown) March 16, 2020
On the Lighter Side
A little levity from a shop owner pic.twitter.com/dHiONihG4e
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 16, 2020
Meanwhile, Locally
My wife got the last four boxes of macaroni and cheese at Jewel today. We were out, not hoarding.
The entire store was stripped bare. Toilet paper, gone. Sanitizers, gone. Shelves empty.
She got a package of Jewel sausages because they were out of Johnsonville. They were “hot” and I won’t eat them. She said that is all they had.
We have a freezer and I have hams, bacon, pork chops, chicken, butter, cheeze, and steaks frozen. Always have a supply.
We have a supply of pasta too, but I did not realize until yesterday we were out of sauce. We got the last few cans of that too.
Amazing.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
There’s a not-so-subtle difference between a trade war and every country on Earth stopping its manufacturing and hoarding its goods so that they have nothing to trade with anybody or sell domestically.
Ah so, now Mish proposes that Trump’s trade wars resulted in: restaurants closing, sports events closing or having no fans present, American’s getting sick from a virus from a foreign country, and all the media hoopla about it resulting in American’s panicking and hoarding. Seriously Mish? Maybe you do have TDS after all.
This is warlike situation, and the time to reveal some family truths. As far as I can gather, the EU fell apart into individual member states. It is everybody for himself. Hoarding of medical supplies on country level.
Received an email from the bank (on Sunday!) where I have investment account, as well as Kitco Metals apologizing for long service time and deliveries. This is where QE goes, liquidation.
Went to bank branch, and not a mouse there, only employees.
Just saw this on CNN:
“”Every American adult should immediately receive $1,000 to help ensure families and workers can meet their short-term obligations and increase spending in the economy,” a release from Romney’s office states, adding, “Congress took similar action during the 2001 and 2008 recessions.”
Is Romney hallucinating, or did I miss getting my two grand?
No you are not hallucinating astroboy, Romney the ultimate RINO is.
“Insisting on Made in America Means No Supplies”
It is Chinese factories that have been shut down. Made in America would have ensured supplies.
“The entire store was stripped bare. Toilet paper, gone. Sanitizers, gone. Shelves empty.”
After reading this, I drove to the nearest Walmart here in Norman, Oklahoma. Fortunately, there was plenty of food left and the lines were not long.
Picture upload doesn’t work.
Don’t think it can’t happen. Here in Des Moines, the stores were stocked until community cases were found in 2 neighboring counties. Walmart is bare now.
Has anybody put together a model of what the markets would look like over the last month without the plunge protection team in place? That would be real interesting.
Mish I’m guessing your arteries qualify as a preexisting condition judging on what you tell us about your diet.
I am not going to waste my vote on November 3rd. I am going to write in Ron Paul. In our state, we have electronic read paper ballots and every write in has to be hand read. 1. I am sending a message. 2. I will make the pol workers some extra work. That’s the best I can do because we can’t vote out the deep state.
Why should we ever be dependent on an authoritarian state, China, for essential medical supplies like gloves and masks and antibiotics? China had and has a state industrial policy of running domestics industries that produce these products out of business through ruthless labor repression and insistence that foreign companies produce in China. Yes there is a trade war and it started two decades ago. Hayekian economics is a miserable failure in these situations.
Of course, they are in China, but we should never allow ourselves to be placed in this position again. Internal domestic manufacturing is critical to the success and health of our economy.
” Internal domestic manufacturing is critical to the success and health of our economy.”
Yes it is. Which is why making money without making anything of value, should never have been facilitated by laws and central banks.
As long as the way to get ahead in America was to sit outside the Fed Building collecting billions in welfare, or sitting on the couch in a shack (or “home”) ditto collecting millions; that is what Americans are incentivized to do. So that is what they do.
And since those incentives are paid for robbing-by-debasement-and-legal-theft the dwindling number of suckers naive enough to think producing something of value is still going to net them something, fewer and fewer do so, forcing the welfare idiots to look abroad for something to buy with the money The Fed stole for them.
This is the “domestic industry as a necessity for wartime” argument, and it’s not a bad argument, a Alexander Hamilton argument. The Japanese used this argument to justify subsidizing their rice farmers when, in the early 1970s, Nixon during his ‘wage and price controls’ nonsense, briefly cut off the shipment of rice to Japan. Japan said “never again” and the rest is history. Next time some farmer’s lobby complains about the closed Japanese rice market…
Despite Mish’s confident predictions of Trump losing re-election, I am not so sure that is correct. War presidents are often re-elected. If Trump’s administration does a halfway decent job of handling outbreaks going forward and the US gets through the worst of this before the election, then he will have a major accomplishment to run on and it will be very much like him being a war president.
What is Biden going to run on by comparison? Will he claim that if he had been president at the time then he would have prevented the CDC from making a mistake on the initial testing? (probably not) Will he claim that he would have restricted travel sooner and more significantly? (no) Will he claim that he will be fiscally more responsible? (Hard to see how any Democrat could make that claim.)
I think President Trump’s re-election depends entirely on how SARS-CoV-2 in the US is handled from this point forward.
I think Biden is too old (it shows), and Bernie is too much of a socialist. At this point, I think the election is Trump’s to lose.
You might be correct. I think Biden might be able to gain some traction if he selects a popular and younger center-right democrat as VP. I know everyone thinks socialism is the Democratic party’s future, but that clearly is not working for them.
The old commie Bernie is no socialist, he just uses that label because he knows stupid Americans think it is the free shit party even though they don’t like the term communism. “The goal of socialism is communism”. ~ V. Lenin
Bernie is winning up to 80% of the youth vote in every state. If anything, this crisis is going to make young people favor democratic socialism even more once they see the government handing out money to failing corporations. It does appear the future will be more socialist.
If I heard correctly on the radio this morning, both Biden and Sanders are committed to a female running mate. What a crock. I suppose it will be Klobuchar, possibly Tulsi. Or, Sarah Palin is available, I’m sure.
“I believe Trump would not have been re-elected, and I am sure his poor handling of the coronavirus has sealed his fate.”
I believe Trump will be re-elected. Voters will NOT blame him for the coronavirus and are more likely to turn against those who blame Trump for it.
In fact, voters who opposed Trump’s Wall and trade wars, are likely to see them more favorably as the coronavirus is believed to have come from China (even it didn’t) and countries are closing borders to stop it.
Tend to agree. If things are in the upswing + scapegoat (FOREIGN virus) I would put money down on DJT winning. Anyways, Biden a horrible candidate and Trump will snack on him … and belch.
Where is your documentation that the Covid 19 virus did not come from China?
i fully expect voters to blame the self-proclaimed genius for his glaring mishandling of the pandemic.
Only if they’re hungry for long and want to blame Trump. I don’t see the actual CV issue to be blamed on him, but backlash for aftereffects of empty stores.
You should never expect much from voters.
Voters and logic are incompatible.
I suppose this is a dumb question, but wouldn’t it make alot more sense for Congress to set up a mechanism for zero or near-zero interest loans to service industry people who live paycheck to paycheck, as opposed to the Fed giving trillions to the banks?
“but wouldn’t it make alot more sense for Congress “
It would make a lot of sense to us commoners but not Congress or the PhDs at the Fed.
They need to push on the string awhile longer before they figure out that it doesn’t help.
That is called welfare, the government likes to own it, but first it is channeled through finance to see if it can wring any activity and profit out of new lending… they find ways to, but they make sure first that profits are geared in their own direction..just like most people…except they get rewarded just for rewarding themselves as well…and people buy it to get access to the supply they offer.
It’s a method or structure, works or “works” until it becomes too corrupt.
At some point, the populace will grow weary of being locked down and will be willing to take the risk of infection in order for things to return to normal. I would give it about a month in the US.
Various African countries had a blitz on non-residents entering over the weekend, Mauritania closed its airspace even if I remember. Visas cancelled to many countries, in South Africa same, anyone who arrived after 20 feb has to be tested also. Spain bans entry to non-residents also.
This is not a trade war though, not yet anyway, national and international production and demand are in chaos, partly in thanks to the interdependence that globalists say is more efficient and productive, that those against national confrontation say promotes peace, and that the average person profits from via cheaper goods at the cost of national integrity. Not really possible to have it all ways, dependence on a foreign country means leverage available against you.
Anyway, goods routes remain open, but tourism and travel related industry are now subject to complete forced intervention/interruption, and that is closest to a trade war analogy.
Trump probably doesn’t even remember starting the trade wars. He’s “helping” the stock market now.
So here’s the question, what’s his attention span?
His attention span is longer than that of the average voter. And he knows that.
Trump: “Trade wars are easy to win”
Coronavirus: “Hold my beer”