Cases surges 25% last week. Arizona, Florida, and Texas set records.
Surge is Not Related to Increased Testing
It is no longer possible to ignore the southern surge.
Here are some additional charts from Worldometers.
Florida Deaths and Projections
Florida Hospital Usage and Projections
Florida Social Distancing
California Deaths and Projections
California Hospital Usage and Projections
California Social Distancing
Georgia Deaths and Projections
Georgia Hospital Usage and Projections
Georgia Social Distancing
Texas Deaths and Projections
Texas Hospital Usage and Projections
Texas Social Distancing
Arizona Deaths and Projections
Arizona Hospital Usage and Projections
Arizona Social Distancing
Social Distancing Factors
- Educational Facilities Closed
- Gathering Restrictions
- Stay-at-Home Orders
- Business Closures
General Chart Notes
- Resources are specific to Covid-19 Patients
- Shaded areas are 95% confidence level
Death and hospital projections are based on social distancing announcements and current rates.
Projections, Who Believes Them?
I suspect most will look at these projections and laugh. They will point to projections of deaths of a million or more.
But those million projections were based on no social distancing at a time when very little was known about the disease.
Patterns Don't Neatly Fit
Claim 1: States that practiced social distancing late and removed restrictions early are the hardest hit.
Reality 1: California does not fit the bill. It forced social distancing early on and still has strict social distancing but it is again hit hard.
Claim 2: Warm weather and going outside would put a quick end to Covid-19.
Reality 2: California, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas make a mockery of that prediction
Surge Explanation: What's Going On?
- Both claims are partially true but many dismiss both outright because the patterns vary.
- Social distancing is just one factor.
- People are tired of wearing masks and social distancing.
- States are opening up just as more people believe it was all overdone in the first place.
- In contrast to March and April, it's now too hot in the South to stay outdoors. So think about more people indoors, just as social distancing is removed.
Huge Surge Ahead of Trump Campaign Visit
Arizona reports Record Single-Day Increase in Coronavirus Cases ahead of Trump’s visit.
For details, please see Trump's Campaign Visit to Arizona Church is Irresponsible at Best
There is a big risk to Trump's move but we will not know the impact for weeks.