Cases surges 25% last week. Arizona, Florida, and Texas set records. 

Surge is Not Related to Increased Testing

Worrisome Charts

It is no longer possible to ignore the southern surge. 

Here are some additional charts from Worldometers.

Florida Deaths and Projections

Florida Deaths and Projections 2020-06-23

Florida Hospital Usage and Projections 

Florida Hospital Usage and Projections  2020-06-23

Florida Social Distancing 

Florida Social Distancing 2020-06-23

California Deaths and Projections 

California Deaths and Projections 2020-06-23

California Hospital Usage and Projections

California Hospital Usage Projections 2020-06-23

California Social Distancing 

California Social Distancing 2020-06-23

Georgia Deaths and Projections 

Georgia Deaths and Projections 2020-06-23

Georgia Hospital Usage and Projections 

Georgia Hospital Usage and Projections 2020-06-23

Georgia Social Distancing 

Georgia Social Distancing 2020-06-23

Texas Deaths and Projections 

Texas Deaths and Projections 2020-06-23

Texas Hospital Usage and Projections

Texas Hospital Usage and Projections 2020-06-23

Texas Social Distancing 

Texas Social Distancing 2020-06-23

Arizona Deaths and Projections

Arizona Deaths and Projections 2020-06-23

Arizona Hospital Usage and Projections 

Arizona Hospital Usage and Projections 2020-06-23

Arizona Social Distancing 

Arizona Social Distancing 2020-06-23

Social Distancing Factors

  • Educational Facilities Closed
  • Gathering Restrictions
  • Stay-at-Home Orders
  • Business Closures

General Chart Notes

  • Resources are specific to Covid-19 Patients
  • Shaded areas are 95% confidence level 

Death and hospital projections are based on social distancing announcements and current rates.

Projections, Who Believes Them?

I suspect most will look at these projections and laugh. They will point to projections of deaths of a million or more.

But those million projections were based on no social distancing at a time when very little was known about the disease.

Patterns Don't Neatly Fit

Claim 1: States that practiced social distancing late and removed restrictions early are the hardest hit.

Reality 1: California does not fit the bill. It forced social distancing early on and still has strict social distancing but it is again hit hard.

Claim 2: Warm weather and going outside would put a quick end to Covid-19.

Reality 2: California, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas make a mockery of that prediction

Surge Explanation: What's Going On?

  1. Both claims are partially true but many dismiss both outright because the patterns vary.
  2. Social distancing is just one factor.
  3. People are tired of wearing masks and social distancing.
  4. States are opening up just as more people believe it was all overdone in the first place. 
  5. In contrast to March and April, it's now too hot in the South to stay outdoors. So think about more people indoors, just as social distancing is removed.

Huge Surge Ahead of Trump Campaign Visit

Arizona reports Record Single-Day Increase in Coronavirus Cases ahead of Trump’s visit.

For details, please see Trump's Campaign Visit to Arizona Church is Irresponsible at Best

There is a big risk to Trump's move but we will not know the impact for weeks.

Mish