Despite the favorable change in the slope of hospitalizations and deaths, we are still looking at some pretty grim statistics unless we quickly see further changes for the better.
IF the current trends continue, we are looking at 100,000 cumulative hospitalizations by April 11 (call it mid-month) and 100,000 deaths by April 21 (call it end of the month).
I suspect we will see more slope changes, yet I am pessimistic about states late to the lockdown party like Florida and Texas.
I wonder if the 100,000 to 200,000 death forecast by Dr. Anthony Fauci is purposely high. Why? So Trump can brag about a glorious victory of only 60,000 to 100,000 total deaths.
Regardless, I will be optimistic and take a stab at 50,000 deaths by early May. If so, the total count will be on the low end, say 80,000 to 100,00. But that is for the front part of the year. We are likely to see a recurrence in the fall, hopefully at a more containable rate.
The 50,000 by May 1 is optimistic vs some projections.
Covid-19 Total Deaths Projections
Covid 19 Projections Deaths Per Day
The above charts are from Covid19 Projections
The COVID-19 projections assume full social distancing through May 2020.
I rather doubt that but I hope we do good enough.
Trump Backs Firing of Captain Brett Crozier
What did Crozier do?
He sent a coronavirus plea for health. Hundreds of his crew were infected and social distancing was impossible.
What About Recurrence?
Europe Became the Hub
Nate Silver Chimes In
US Impounds Shipment of Masks
New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan are the most troubling.
Florida expected due to the huge delays by the Florida governor. He did not even close the beaches.
Mislabeled Pneumonia Cases
Underreporting of Covid deaths is massive.
On April 1, I noted Florida Governor Finally Restricts Movement To Essential Services.
My comment was "Watch this Circle"
For details on the firing of Captain Brett Crozier, please see Nightmare at Sea: Aircraft Carrier Needs Help as Social Distancing Impossible.
Capt. Crozier said that the ship’s close quarters rendered the carrier unable to comply with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for social distancing. He wrote that close quarters, shared meals and bathroom spaces are “most conducive” to the spread of the virus.
I consider Crozier a hero for trying to protect his crew. Instead, he was fired, and Trump supports the move.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock