True New Daily Infections Estimate
Florida Underreporting Deaths?
Good News - Deaths May Have Hit Peak
Past Peak Also Based on Positivity Rate
Nate Silver Thread on Baseball
- The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks.
- But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19.
- Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc.
- That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far.
Nate Silver Twitter Thread
Question of the Day
Setting baseball aside for a moment, I’m interested in how you might envision these formulas as they relate to K-12 school openings involving millions of children across the country?