True New Daily Infections Estimate

Florida Underreporting Deaths?

Good News - Deaths May Have Hit Peak

Past Peak Also Based on Positivity Rate

Florida Deaths

Florida Forecast


Nate Silver Thread on Baseball

  • The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks.
  • But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19.
  • Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc.
  • That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far.

Nate Silver Twitter Thread 

Question of the Day

Setting baseball aside for a moment, I’m interested in how you might envision these formulas as they relate to K-12 school openings involving millions of children across the country?


Covid Tracking Project and Tweets of the Day

Let's tune in to the latest data from the Covid Tracking Project and Tweets on the Coronavirus in general.

Covid Tracking Project and Tweets of the Day

Fortunately, we see a change in the slope of hospitalizations and deaths for the better.

Coronavirus Tweets of the Day

Here's some interesting Tweets from the elbow bump to long 21-day quarantines to deaths to toilet paper thefts.

Tweets of the Day: Human to Dog Infections

Latest coronavirus news: human to dog transmission, emergency declarations, real time tracking in Singapore, more ...

Coronavirus Update and Tweets of the Day

Tweets of the Day: Expensive Words, Death Rate Comparison, Containment, Forward Guidance, and Trump Says

Tweets of the Day: Volatility, Mortgage Delinquencies, Iran, Debt

Here are some tweets, from people I follow, worth discussion consideration. Topics vary widely.