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True New Daily Infections Estimate

Florida Underreporting Deaths?

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Past Peak Also Based on Positivity Rate

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Nate Silver Thread on Baseball

  • The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks.
  • But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19.
  • Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc.
  • That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far.

Nate Silver Twitter Thread 

Question of the Day

Setting baseball aside for a moment, I’m interested in how you might envision these formulas as they relate to K-12 school openings involving millions of children across the country?