True New Daily Infections Estimate
One can then combine these estimates with the daily reported deaths to compute what I call the “implied infection fatality rate” (IIFR). The IIFR for the US is currently at ~0.25%.
Note that there is a lag of about 4 weeks between infection and reported death. pic.twitter.com/qVCFudZwDS
— Youyang Gu (@youyanggu) July 31, 2020
Florida Underreporting Deaths?
Florida either has an incredibly low fatality rate (IFR), or may be underreporting deaths.
I computed the implied IFR for every state based on my analysis of reported cases, test positivity rate, and reported deaths.
According to my calculations, Florida’s implied IFR is 0.15%. pic.twitter.com/rc20VsIF4p
— Youyang Gu (@youyanggu) July 24, 2020
Last week, I explained that it was unusual for Florida to be only reporting ~120 deaths per day for a week straight, and that they should expect to report close to 300 deaths/day if they shared a similar IFR as the US.https://t.co/yuTieiuMum
— Youyang Gu (@youyanggu) July 31, 2020
Modeling these nuances is difficult because the model does not understand the intricacies of how reporting varies from state to state.
This is despite the fact that there is a national CDC guideline on how states should report COVID-19 deaths:https://t.co/bC5PtTT1BZ
— Youyang Gu (@youyanggu) July 31, 2020
Good News – Deaths May Have Hit Peak
The US will likely surpass 150,000 reported deaths today.
There’s a decent chance that deaths will peak this week. But https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah is projecting a later peak because it is accounting for all scenarios, including ones where deaths don’t peak until mid/late August. pic.twitter.com/fECL8PkA90
— Youyang Gu (@youyanggu) July 29, 2020
Past Peak Also Based on Positivity Rate
Since people have been asking, here is the US positivity rate over time. It has been falling for the past week.
This is a good indication that we are probably past the peak in terms of cases. pic.twitter.com/7V05Aou8QV
— Youyang Gu (@youyanggu) July 29, 2020
Florida Deaths
I made a bar chart of COVID-19 deaths in Florida by exact date of death. I took care of choosing just the right coloring to emphasize the significant delays in reporting deaths.
The chart is updated daily on my GitHub repo: https://t.co/F8B1zCAow5 . pic.twitter.com/b1wgtc8D66
— Marc Bevand (@zorinaq) August 1, 2020
Florida Forecast
Yes, DoD 7d sma is higher. Compare thin solid curve to fat solid curve here:https://t.co/kOLmWS5k3S pic.twitter.com/CbhRxXmTxs
— Marc Bevand (@zorinaq) August 1, 2020
Nate Silver Thread on Baseball
- The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it’s going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks.
- But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19.
- Note that you *can’t* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they’re all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc.
- That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that’s very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we’re seeing so far.
Nate Silver Twitter Thread
Question of the Day
https://twitter.com/maureenbitley/status/1289732715407740929
Setting baseball aside for a moment, I’m interested in how you might envision these formulas as they relate to K-12 school openings involving millions of children across the country?
Mish
I agree that Covid-19 is a kind of national disaster, and it touched everyone. Recently, I have been working on my college task on risk management and accounting about the influence of the current situation on the economic situation in the world. Also, I got some assistance from this resource link to assignmentbro.com and completed a perfect project about the things that change our economics.
It is a nanovirus. When fully distributed Bill Gates will activate it via 5G signal.
Then everyone will have to purchase regular updates or face unthinkable consequences.
It is based on a tried and true business model.
Regarding Schools and baseball: it would help if people understand that those without morbid health conditions who are under 60 really have almost nothing to worry about. Indeed, the sooner they get it and pass it around, that much sooner any threat will dissipate as virus virulence degrades with exposure and so-called ‘herd immunity’ kicks in. Panicking every time someone tests positive has been encouraged for political reasons, not medical, and the question raised in this post essentially enables that sort of cowardice-based attitude. It’s about time people start waking up to all this instead of going along with so much fear-inducing brainwashing. Americans used to have more confidence, clarity, optimism and weren’t so easy to fool. (Although considering how they fell for the ‘Pearl Harbour Surprise Attack’ fable, maybe I’m wrong!)
Those who have cause to worry should be on Zinc and HCQ prophylactically already, as should all professional athletes. Again, though, misinformation at the service of nefarious political ends is ruling the roost these days.
RE: “those without morbid health conditions who are under 60 really have almost nothing to worry about.”
Once again, the “almost” appeals to the statistics and how many times do I have to emphasize that statistics DO NOT APPLY TO ANY INDIVIDUAL … they apply to populations. There is also the concern that such individuals as you describe may become spreaders to other individuals TO WHOM THE STATISTICS DO NOT APPLY.
Just because the statistics say that the “chances” of death to “those without morbid health conditions who are under 60” are low does not mean that any particular individual won’t be dead and gone from COVID-19 within a month after listening to your nonsense.
Also, it’s difficult to believe you’re still tossing out the just plain foolish “herd immunity” wishful thinking these days.
Problem with how daily death rates are often calculated/presented:
This is becoming political. Ten states account for 112000 deaths. the remaining forty two have 43000 or an average of 1000. A number of states have less than 500. I included GA and AR both of which have less than 4000.
Don’t worry guys!! The Russians will start mass vaccination of their citizens come October. But because the vaccine doesn’t have a cool name associated with it like “Operation Warp Speed”, even if it’s effective, the American media will do its part in making sure that it’s treated the same as hydroxychloroquine.
But Florida has the most stable genius!
Alternative facts from Florida? Unbelievable!
More alternative facts from Florida, you can’t believev anybody anymore…
“Florida man” was elected governor of Florida.
The reported facts didn’t fit his model therefore the facts are wrong. There are many reasons why one state or a group of states have a lower death rate including differences in treatment, climate, population age and dispersion and so on. You also have to take into account in differences in the viral strain now. Maybe he should rethink his model.
“Florida either has an incredibly low fatality rate (IFR), or may be underreporting deaths.”
…
In De Santis we trust?
Not me.
Back in May:
“The scientist who created Florida’s COVID-19 data portal wasn’t just removed from her position on May 5, she was fired on Monday by the Department of Health, she said, for refusing to manipulate data.”