Inquiring minds are looking at today's Consumer Price report for signs of inflation.

CPI Highlights

  • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August.
  • Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
  • Increases in the indexes for shelter and food were offset by declines in the indexes for energy and used cars and trucks to result in the seasonally adjusted all items index being flat.
  • The energy index fell 1.4 percent as the gasoline index declined 2.4 percent. The food index increased 0.1 percent in September after being unchanged in each of the prior 3 months.
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in each of the last 3 months. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance all rose in September.
  • The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, new vehicles, and communication all declined.
  • The food index increased 1.8 percent over the last year, while the energy index decreased 4.8 percent.

CPI Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year

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In Search of Inflation

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Anyone buying their own health care insurance or electing to to have any will look at that alleged 4.4% rise and think it's a joke.

CPI vs Medical Services and OER Year-Over-Year

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Owners Equivalent Rent (OER) is another problem area. Since 2012, rental prices have risen much faster than the CPI.

The cost of medical services nearly always rises faster the the CPI.

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Uninsured Rate Jumps

On September 16, I reported the Percentage of Healthcare Uninsured Jumps From 8.0% in 2017 to 9.1% in 2019.

68% of Millennial Homeowners Regret Buying a Home

The BLS does not consider the price of housing as a consumer price, only rent.

Rent is outstripping wages and the price of houses even more so.

As noted in American Dream, 68% of Millennial Homeowners Regret Buying a Home.

Inflation Magic

Low inflation is imaginary for those buying their own health insurance, for those looking to buy a home, for those in college, and many others, too.

And of course the BLS does not count economic bubbles and the Fed does not even see them

Mike "Mish" Shedlock