Economists overestimated the hurricane impact according to Bloomberg Econoday.

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Moderation in both housing and medical costs is the dovish story behind September's consumer price report, factors that held down the core rate to a lower-than-expected 0.1 percent gain. The core excludes food and also energy which spiked a hurricane-driven 6.1 percent to lift the overall rate to an outsized looking 0.5 percent.

But it's the fundamental costs that look soft in September's report. Housing rose only 0.2 percent in the month, which is half of August's gain, with the closely watched owners' equivalent rent component slowing 1 tenth to 0.2 percent. Medical care actually went into reverse at minus 0.1 percent. Prescription drugs were very soft here, down 0.6 percent with nonprescription drugs down 1.4 percent. Apparel is also in the negative column at minus 0.1 percent to end a positive run of gains while both new and used vehicles fell, down 0.4 and 0.2 percent respectively.

Positive traction includes wireless services which have been moving in reverse most of the year though posting a 0.4 percent September rise. Recreation posted a 2nd straight 0.2 percent gain while food was a non-factor once again, up 0.1 percent.

Year-on-year rates won't be alarming the hawks at the FOMC, down 1 tenth to 2.2 percent overall and holding, for a 5th month in a row, at a subpar 1.7 percent for the core. This report, which did show pressure in August, is not showing the same pressure in September and offsets, at least to a degree, the significant signs of wage pressures in September's employment report. Today's report will soften the inflation debate at the month-end FOMC. The Department of Labor is downplaying any hurricane impacts on the report though it does note that data collection in Florida was impacted slightly.

Percent Changes in CPI


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Year-over-year commodities excluding food and energy, new vehicles, used vehicles, and apparel are lower.

Month-over-month, add natural gas and energy services to the list.

Shelter is up as is transportation services (taxis etc), and food away from home. On balance, the Fed and economic illiterates cheering inflation as a benefit will not be pleased with the report.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

PPI Jumps Due To Hurricane Energy Impact

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July.

Curious September Energy Decline in CPI, With Crude and Gas Futures Rising

The BLS says the energy index declined 0.5 percent in September, but the price of crude rose. Overall the CPI rose 0.1%.

The Producer Price Index Jumps a Greater Than Expected 1.3 Percent

Economists expected the PPI to increase by 0.4 percent. They were not close.

CPI Rises 0.3% in October Led by Gasoline Index: This Won't Last

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in October. The gasoline index was responsible for over one-third of the rise.

CPI Jumps 0.41% in March: Gasoline, Up 6.5%, Core CPI Up 0.15%

The CPI jumped 0.4% in March but core CPI, excluding food and energy only rose 0.1%.

CPI Hits Consensus, Disappoints Inflation-Loving Parrots

The BLS reports the CPI for All Items rose 0.2% in April as shelter, energy, and food indexes all increase. The 0.2% increase was in line with the Econoday Consensus estimate, but the Econoday parrot was not happy.

CPI Jumps Most Since February 2013 on Energy: Did Gasoline Prices Really Rise 7.8% in January?

The BLS reports the CPI Increased 0.6 Percent in January. That’s the largest increase since February of 2013. As with the PPI, much of the jump is oil related.

Economic Boom Thesis Nothing More Than a Hurricane-Related Mirage

On Friday, both GDPNow and Nowcast updated their models. The former estimates 1st-qtr GDP at 3.2%, the latter at 3.1%.

CPI Up 0.4% on Energy and Shelter: “Not a Disappointment”, Tiny Harvey Effect

The Econoday parrot is singing a happy tune today as the CPI beat expectations for the first time in six months.