The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow Model yesterday. The New York Fed updated its Nowcast model today.

For the first time in a long time, the Nowcast model is a full percentage point higher than GDPNow on the base forecast.

Real Final Sales

Nowcast does not provide a "real final sales" forecast. That is the bottom line estimate of the GDP forecast.

GDPNow assumes that inventories, which net to zero over time, will add 0.6 percentage point to GDP.

That is a bad sign, if accurate, and retail sales do not pick up. The Nowcast seems to be factoring that in.

Let's look ahead.

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Nowcast 2019 Q1 Forecast

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History

GDPNow has had a hot hand, but factoring in GDPNow's estimate of inventories, the models are converging lower, way lower, and suddenly lower.

I suspect both are on the high side at the moment. If housing and autos don't pick up, we are on the cusp of recession, if indeed not in one.

If retail sales sink further, recession will be confirmed.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Nowcast vs. GDPNow: Questioning the Absurdity of Nowcast's Non-Volatility

Nowcast had no reaction to 35 of 35 economic data points since June 19. GDPNow rose 0.7 PP since July 6.

GDPNow Forecast 3.9%, Nowcast 2.1%: What to Watch a Week From Now

The GDPNow forecast is much stronger than Nowcast. The BEA will report GDP on Oct 26. Watch real final sales.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today’s retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

GDPNow and Nowcast Estimates Continue Similar Second-Quarter Track

Only 0.2 percentage points separate the GDPNow and Nowcast estimates for the 2nd quarter. But what about inventories?

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

GDPNow vs Nowcast Gap Widens Again, Huge GDPNow Inventory Contribution

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Forecasts 4.2% GDP Growth. Nowcast is 2.3%. Inventories contribute 2.2 % to GDPNow.

GDPNow vs Nowcast: Bit of Convergence but Inventory Problem Looms

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast came out yesterday, the New York Fed Nowcast today.

GDPNow vs Nowcast vs Blue Chip Forecast

GDPNow's initial estimate was the lowest anywhere. Now It's at the top of the heap.

GDPNow Forecast Rises, Nowcast Dips on Same Economic Data

On Friday, the GDPNow and Nowcast models updated their 4th quarter GDP forecasts. One model rose, the other fell.