Here’s a lesson regardaing premature bragging.
Sean Hannity on May 20: “Florida got it right, Texas got it right … the mob and the media, by the way, you own Governor DeSantis a huge apology” pic.twitter.com/7Ce58CdQtm
— Madeline Peltz (@peltzmadeline) June 26, 2020
Not Easy to Say What’s Happening
People oversimplify what’s going on. There is no nice, neat package.
The recent outbreaks in Texas and Florida are different than California.
New York and New Jersey were unlike anything else. But the virus did not go away in the summer as many, if not most thought.
Air Conditioning Connection
Air conditioning and the need to stay inside in the South likely had something to do with that.
I took a look at A/C on June 24 in Covid-19 Hotspot Update: Why the Surge in the South?
Death Lag Times
Death lag times vary widely state-to-state as noted in When Will the Exploding Number of Cases Lead to More Deaths?
Some suggested that it’s all demographics. Rising hospitalizations suggest otherwise.
Changing Demographics and Death Lags, What We Know
University of Florida biostatistics professor Dr. Natalie Dean gives three possible explanations for the falling median age.
She concludes its some combination of all of them but there is not enough data to understand what’s happening.
For discussion, please see Changing Demographics and Death Lags, What We Know
Trump on Testing
Cases are going up in the U.S. because we are testing far more than any other country, and ever expanding. With smaller testing we would show fewer cases!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 23, 2020
Here’s an amusing take on testing.
How to more cases than anybody in the world pic.twitter.com/VA9bPJiQ6i
— Sarah Cooper (@sarahcpr) May 15, 2020
Not Enough Data
Despite not having enough data, Trump wants less of it.
Specifically, Trump wants less testing.
Fake News of the Day
In the “Fake News of the Day” on , Trump said states are doing too much testing that that was the cause of the soaring number of cases.
The idea is patently false and has been easily refuted, but people believe what they want to hear.
Not only did Trump moan about too much testing, he cut back funding for it in five states including Texas when Houston Hospitals are at ICU capacity.
Despite waits as long as 4 hours at some Texas locations, Trump cut back testing.
Florida and Texas Reversals
Trump ignored soaring cases in Florida and Texas but Texas governor Greg Abbott threw in the towel on repopenings and Shuts Bars at Noon as Covid Cases Surge.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also threw in the towel on reopenings. DeSantis Banned Drinking at Florida Bars.
Apology, Where Is It?
The question of the day, for Sean Hannity is quite simple:
Who Owes Whom an Apology?
Mish
Mish = filthy liberal P.O.S. spreading lies and fake news.
Mish is supposed to understand numbers, right?
Since May 20 NY has had ~2k incremental deaths. Texas has had less than a thousand. Florida has had about 1300. Are we still defending NY? How about waiting for some (any?) evidence that these cases will turn to an explosion of deaths. At that point Hannity will actually be wrong.
To be crystal clear, even if this spike ends up taking TX deaths up by 10x and NY doesn’t have even one more death, TX will still have a deaths per million rate HALF that of NY.
And we know that lockdown policy was NEVER designed to minimize death but to prevent hospital overwhelming. NY is doing well today more because they already reached herd immunity (they let it burn all the way through), so that we are now essentially blaming TX for saving too many people in April and May?
Mish is now a proponent of Heighten The Curve as the best policy for a governor to pursue.
Seriously think of how insane this allegation is. NY “benefits” and shows a “recovery” because so many people died as a result of its terrible policy (nursing homes, leaving subways open, encouraging people to go to movie theaters, etc.) that there aren’t as many uninfected people left in comparison with TX! And for this we blame Texas!
That isn’t just bad analysis, it’s malicious.
Someone needs to ask Sean Hannity what is the status of his lawsuit against Debbie Schlussel while they are pointing out how clueless he is once again.
Let’s be honest here. Hannity has proven himself to be a big government guy time and again during the age of Trump as spending has increased and we have more socialist handouts and bailouts–not to mention gun control and Planned Parenthood funding–under the leadership of his orange buddy with little hands.
I expect Hannity to make a 180 degree turn back to the right if Biden wins…
I remember an absurd press conference with Trump and DeSantis at the White House spiking the ball for getting a first down when they were still 70 yards away from the end zone.
Hannity is a Trump fanboy and does as he is told. Trump will turn on Hannity and Fox to steal their viewers for his new franchise. Trump turns on everyone.
Mish went Anti-Trump as soon as Trump people got behind anti-Trust enforcement against Google. Google gave the left the rainbow treatment and the left no longer cares about attacking capitalism. The deal was made with the implicit understanding that “conservatives” would not attack businesses even when businesses censor anti-communists.
When will Mish disavow socialism and communism? BLM has declared Capitalism White Supremacy.
link to newyorker.com
Florida reopened in MAY and it is now almost July and the cases just started to spike? I guess it had nothing to do with the protesters?
After a person tests positive, they always do a certain amount of contact tracing. If these people were protesters, someone would know, and we’d be hearing it, from at least someone.
So reopening in May – and a major increase in June.
So initial exposures would lead to initial infection spread – probably not entirely recognized. Give that a week or so and then the 2wk incubation period and you get 3-4 weeks. That gets you only to the recognition that infections have ‘tipped up’. Give it another 1-2 weeks and you now have the recognition that there is major spread of the virus. That gives you around 5-6 weeks – just about right for the timetable – with or without protests.
You are kind of taking Hannity’s thing about an apology out of context. The same crowd who started about Florida “killing granny” caused thousands of deaths in nursing homes, litarally killing granny, by State ordered placement of covid patients in nursing homes. It was already clear from China and Europe’s experience that these groups were extremely vulnerable, so there is no excuse.
Many countries were negligent about taking measures in February to protect those most at risk, but by the time this hit NY and NJ, it had become criminal negligence. In Pennsylvania there was the case of someone getting her own mother out of nursing care while being complicit in this insanity.
Isolating those most at risk involves measures impacting 1.7% of the population and could be achieved relatively cheaply by paying people $50 to stay on premises to provide care for 2-3 months. That would have saved upwards of 50% of the total deaths. It would have been a hell of a lot more efficient and cheaper than targeting the other 98,3% of the population with “shelter-in-place” orders.
Everybody keeps acting as if containment is still a viable approach and that we can influence the area under the curve — the containment ship has sailed, only the shape of the curve can be modified.
I still believe that the total number of cases can be minimized. I don’t believe that we are all doomed to get it, unless we doom ourselves with stupid behaviors.
You think people will stay on site for $50, for months? What world do you live in?
I love it when people throw out that others should stay at their jobs so they can go out and do their own thing. Of course that simplistic view would still not work and you have obviously not thought about what it is like to live at your job. I have had to live at my job for a short period of time during this pandemic, and I can tell you it sucks.
Why don’t we all wear masks in public, minimize public exposure for 6 weeks and knock this thing out. Suck it up America you bunch of whining babies.
I have come to the conclusion that the only people dumber than Trump are his supporters as per the below statement……
Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., pushed back on New York’s decision to quarantine travelers from Florida, arguing that the Sunshine State’s spike in coronavirus cases is the result of increased testing.
When are all COVIDiots going to realize that “that the [any area’s] spike in coronavirus cases is the result of increased testing.” is a totally absurd perspective.
The spike in coronavirus cases everywhere it occurs is the result of the spread of the virus … the only thing increased testing does is REVEAL the spread of the virus. NOT DETECTING NEW CASES IS NOT THE SAME AS THERE BEING NO NEW CASES.
And again, those who desire to see the fatality rate lowered should be overjoyed at spikes in cases … so long as spike’s in fatalities don’t subsequently occur …
Except that it has become increasingly obvious to all but the most stubborn COVIDiots that death is absolutely not the only lasting negative outcome for people who have contracted COVID-19. The lasting negative impacts have been thoroughly documented … the open question is how long-lasting, or even permanent, those impacts might be.
Florida officials accused of manipulating coronavirus numbers by former department of health employee link to hill.cm
She was fired for refusing to fudge the data for political reasons.
The outcome of this was obvious to anyone who is data-driven. Easily transmitted viruses don’t tune out reality for months at a time to accommodate the delusions of zero-value conservative politicians.
Unlike Mish, I believe the numbers have been greatly misreported to exaggerate CV19 numbers.
In Austria, more people died of the flu than Covid.
I doubt that’s true in US, but suspect that high number of CV-reported deaths were from the flu. Many tests cannot tell the difference.
Also, this chart puts things in perspective. If you look at percentage increases etc. in Florida and Texas, it’s not a big deal if things go from 20 a day to 40 a day or whatever. Here’s a great chart showing the State by State mortality:
“More to come later but my early analysis shows that US states showing increases in #COVID19 cases have average cumulative deaths of 0.013% of population. States showing no increase or cases still falling have average deaths of 0.049% of population.”
Maybe you should have also provided this link from the same site …
Good get! That’s 5 extra patients to add to Covid totals.
That fraud happens in American clinics is no surprise to me and I’m sure it goes in all sorts of directions. This guy was trying to shove people out the door quickly presumably to get new ones in.
The link to the second article which was edited out:
“link to twitter.com“
The following article regarding the D614G mutation is a little disconcerting. Hopefully this is just misinformation from Chinese researchers. The following sentence in particular which has significant implications for vaccine development if true.
“ The Chinese researchers say antibodies found in patients who had been infected with earlier forms of the pathogen failed to neutralize the mutant strain.”.
It is also highly probable that only about 25% of the folks that get this have antibodies to any appreciable extent for even a few months AND there is some risks antibodies may even enhance this bug
There is a correlation between the areas with the best ratings for Hannity and death from Covid-19.
Overlay average IQ on that, and an obvious driver for both becomes apparent.
Ummm, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are the 5 states with the highest Covid19 death rates. Hannity isn’t popular there.
BREAKING: #60Minutes investigation reveals Trump knowingly allowed flawed #COVID19 antibody tests to circulate, leading to inaccurate data about virus spread, creating data to support re-openings, and potentially causing thousands more preventable deaths.
Impeach!
criminal!
How long before 60 Minutes gets sued for breaching national security?
60 minutes has about as much credibility as Hannity.
Hannity has about as much credibility as a bag of dirt.
The difference between the bag of dirt, and Hannity is the bag of dirt is honest about what it is.
You mean Hannity is a dirtbag? Shocking.
The question for you is:
are you saying that because the cases are going up, and maybe also death counts in places that have extremely low death counts already, this means they should be locked down?
Or if not – because there is no reason to in terms of hospital capacity etc. – what is your beef? Has anyone seriously claimed that the country should stay at home until there is absolutely no virus left around at all? Has anyone suggested a way for the population to live and work without any risk at all? Who made that decision?
Have you looked at the actual death numbers in Florida and Texas? Do they constitute a massive threat to the healthcare system or to life generally?
Apart from proving – yet again – that Trump is a lying moron, what is your point?
The evidence so far points to this virus being with us for quite some time. I for one am not as optimistic about the timeline for a vaccine or whether they even manage to develop a vaccine. The one thing they do need to do however is flatten the curve by whatever means possible. If the virus is allowed to spread unchecked the US healthcare system will collapse. You only need to look at what happened in New York to figure that out. If that means masks, social distancing and keeping bars closed then that is the price we will have to pay. As a country we completely blew it. Little point in assigning blame at this point. We just need to remove politics from the state by state decisions and make the correct decisions going forward.
What we needed was a bipartisan corona virus task force making the best decisions for the good of the country. What we got was a highly politicized debacle. Both parties should hang their heads in shame.
Yep. When it comes to COVID infection rate, the United States under Republican leadership is now a third-world country on par with Brazil, Russia, or India, rather than a first-world science-led nation like South Korea, Canada, New Zealand or France.
Truly pathetic how low GOP leadership has brought us after a mere 3.75 years in power.
Trump is a stable moron.
I think “stable” is pushing it a little…
Chiiiild that Trump he be all messed up!