Job Revisions

Today the BLS provided these month-over-month revisions.

  • The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 5,000 from +256,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 2,000 from +145,000 to +147,000.
  • With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 7,000 higher than previously reported.

The BLS also provided the lead image.

Recall my August 21 report: BLS Revises Payrolls 501,000 Lower Through March.

Today the BLS says "The total nonfarm employment level for March 2019 was revised downward by 514,000 (-505,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis), or -0.3 percent."

For December 2019, the BLS previously reported jobs at 152,383,000. Today we see it's really 151,961,000.

That a difference of 422,000 jobs.

Jobs Rise 225,000 But Employment Fell by 89,000

Today the BLS benchmarks January 2020 at 152,186,000 jobs.

That's a net increase of 1,599, 000 jobs, about 133,000 per month vs the original January 2019 total.

Seasonal reports make today's report more than bit suspect, especially construction work which allegedly added 44,000 jobs.

For more details and discussion, please see Jobs Rise 225,000 But Employment Fell by 89,000.

I commented "Seasonal adjustments make this report more than a bit suspect."

Reader Tony added: "Yes, seasonal adjustments most certainly play a role during the winter. During January, the NOAA reported the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 35.5°F, 5.4°F above the 20th century average, ranking fifth warmest in the 126-year record."

What revisions will we see this March?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

BLS Revises Payrolls 501,000 Lower Through March

BLS annual revisions knocked off 501,000 jobs through March. Private jobs fell by 514,000 jobs.

Boeing 737 Max Suspension: What Really Happened?

This week, Boeing announced it would suspend production of the 737 Max in January. The timing and details are unusual.

Jobs +201,000 vs Employment -423,000: Another BLS Divergence

Nonfarm jobs rose but actual employment fell in two different measures of the BLS July jobs report.

Jobs +103,000, Well Under Lowest Estimate

The BLS reports March jobs as +103,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Revisions were negative.

Discrepancy Between Jobs and Employment Persists: Expect More Negative Revisions

The BLS revised away 75,000 jobs in April and May. The discrepancy between jobs and employment is still massive.

Jobs +75,000 vs Employment +113,000: Revisions -75,000

Jobs missed expectations by a mile but were well above the ADP forecast of +27,000. Revisions took the gain away.

Revisions Save an Overhyped Employment Report as Jobs Rise by 134,000

Some expected 300,000 or more jobs in today's report. Instead, payrolls rose by 134,000. Revisions substantial.

Job Report: Weak Earnings, Unemployment Rate Up, Upward Revisions

Job growth was a modest 128,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%. Revisions added 95,000.

Payrolls “Unexpectedly” Weak, Negative Revisions, Earning Poor: What Happened?

Today’s establishment survey was a much weaker than expected at 138,000 jobs.