A global recession now seems baked in the cake.

The definition is a bit obscure, however.

Some define a global recession as global growth less than 3.0%. Some say less than 2.5%. And some say it's growth under 2.0%.

I suspect it is irrelevant which definition one uses.

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

Economic Madness

Global recession talk picked up as Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico Over Immigration.

Mexico is the US' third largest trading partner.

These tariffs are madness.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Yield Curve Update: 10-Year vs 1-Month Inversion Persists

The yield curve inversion persists and even widened, selectively.

Freight Shipments Sinking Globally, US Joins the Parade: Global Recession Starts

The economic outlook based on freight shipments is growing dim.Global expansion has peaked.

Fed Gets Opposite Response It Wanted: Inversions Strengthen

Counting the FF Rate, the yield curve flattened quite a bit but inversions between 3-month and long end widened.

Bond Yields Crash On ISM Report, More China Tariffs: Inversions Strengthen

The long end of the yield curve continued its post-FOMC decline on poor manufacturing reports and new Trump tariffs.

India Joins the Tariff War: The Party is Just Starting!

In response to Trump's tariffs on steel, India will put tariffs on Harley motorcycles, lentils, and almonds.

Reader Questions on Yield Curve Inversions as a Recession Indicator

Reader Eric is curious about yield curve inversions. He writes …

Yield Curve Inversion Coming Up?

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield curve inversion.

First Inversion in Seven Years: Can a Recession be Far Off?

The 5-year to the 3-year portion of the yield curve inverted today. Inversion is typically a prelude to recession.

Art of Changing the Deal: Trump Demands Canada Treat US Farmers Better

Trump made demands on Mexico and Canada regarding NAFTA talks. Canada complains Trump is changing the discussion.