Democrats are In the Lead in Both Georgia Senate Races

Georgia Senate Runoff Contestants

Republican U.S. Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue face Democratic challengers Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in Georgia runoff elections. 

Spotlight on the Polls

Many people dissed the 2020 election polls. Yes, the polls had problems. But the problems were universal and the polls did get the presidential election winner.

Trafalgar vs. Nate Silver

State by State Results

• Georgia: Biden 49.5 vs Trump 49.3: Biden +0.2
• Nevada: Biden 50.1 vs Trump 47.7: Biden +2.4
• Florida: Trump 51.2 vs Biden 47.9: Trump +3.3
• Pennsylvania: Biden 50.0 vs Trump 48.8: Biden +1.2
• Ohio: Trump 53.3 vs Biden 45.3: Trump +8.0
• Michigan: Biden 50.6 vs Trump 47.8: Biden +2.8
• North Carolina: Trump 50.1 vs Biden 48.7: Trump 1.4
• Arizona: Biden 49.4 vs Trump 49.1: Biden +0.3
• Wisconsin Biden 49.6 vs Trump 48.9: Biden +0.7

The above election results from Politico.

State by State Absolute Value of Errors

• Georgia: Trafalgar 4.5, Silver 0.5 
• Nevada: Trafalgar 3.1, Silver 3.7
• Florida: Trafalgar 1.2, Silver 5.8 
• Pennsylvania: Trafalgar 3.1, Silver 3.5 
• Ohio: Trafalgar 3.2, Silver 7.4
• Michigan: Trafalgar 5.3, Silver 5.2  
• North Carolina: Trafalgar 0.7, Silver 3.1
• Arizona: Trafalgar 2.8, Silver 2.3 
• Wisconsin: Trafalgar 1.1, Silver 7.6  

In Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, if you averaged Silver and Trafalgar you would have been nearly on the money due to offsetting errors. 

On the whole, it was not a good performance by anyone but Silver did get the overall call correctly.

Please don’t disclose your TCS and claim Trump won, because there is virtually no evidence of substantial fraud. 

Trafalgar on Georgia Senate

If you happen to be a believer in Trafalgar, then they currently have Ossoff at +3.0 and Warnock at +1.0.

Silver adjusted Trafalgar to Ossoff +5.0 and Warnock +5.0.

Based on the general election, it’s not clear why Silver should adjust Trafalgar at all, but do note that Georgia happened to be Trafalgar’s second biggest miss. 

Georgia Early Senate Voting

Georgia early voting for the January 5 runoff has ended. A record 3 million Georgia voters cast their ballots already.

What Does the Early Voting Tell Us?

For discussion, please consider the 538 article What The Early Vote In Georgia Can and Can’t Tell Us.

Note, at the time of the article were were not yet 3 million+
votes cast.

Through Monday, more people — 2,337,477 — have officially voted in Georgia’s upcoming Senate runoff than in any other runoff in Georgia history. That’s a meaningful milestone considering that the eight previous runoff elections have all been low-turnout affairs. But it doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about who is going to win this year’s races.

For instance, we don’t know how those 2.3 million voters voted (while turnout numbers are released on a daily basis, no actual election results are reported until polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern on Jan. 5). And because Georgia does not register voters by party, we don’t know whether those voters are disproportionately Democrats or Republicans either.

We do have some clues about who has voted thanks to demographic information in the voter file: namely, voters’ race. Voters so far in Georgia are 55 percent non-Hispanic white, 32 percent non-Hispanic Black and 13 percent of other races (or of unknown race). That’s a more diverse electorate than at this point in the general election, when, according to The New York Times/Upshot’s Nate Cohn, fewer than 30 percent of early voters were Black. At first glance, that might seem like a good omen for Democrats given their strength with Black voters. And there are other rosy signs for Democrats in the early-voting data too, like turnout being lowest in two heavily Republican congressional districts in north Georgia.

But none of that will matter if hordes of white voters and north Georgia Republicans turn out to vote on election day, which is very possible. Potentially millions of people have yet to vote, and because the type of person who votes early is different from the type of person who votes on election day, those voters could completely change the face of the electorate. (Indeed, more than 975,000 Georgians voted on Election Day in November, and President Trump won them 60 percent to 38 percent. The Black share of the electorate wound up lower than the Black share of the early vote in November as well.) As the saying goes, don’t count your chickens before they hatch, and don’t form any opinions about who is going to win Georgia based on the early vote.

Thus, the short answer is the early polls tell us nothing other than the turnout will likely set a record.

The polls don’t tell us much either. 

The six most recent pollsters are rated C, B/C, C-, Not Rated, B/C, and Not Rated.

There are few quality polls and few recent polls. Perhaps the most meaningful shift is the change by Trafalgar.

It is the only pollster on that list twice.

Traalgar went from Perdue +3.0 to Ossoff +3.0 and Loeffler +7.0 to Warnock +1.0.

That’s a huge shift between December 16 and December 27.

Nothing would surprise me but I suspect this will be a split. To pick one, it would be Warnock.

What If?

If Democrats win both seats they have a shot at controlling the agenda assuming no defections either way. 

And if that happens, much of the blame will go to Trump for his petulant whining and downright dangerous tactics as noted in Trump’s Dangerous Delusions Increase in Magnitude.

Even still, wild Progressive ideas won’t likely pass as a 51-50 coalition would be too fragile.

Mish