Think this through from every angle.
Democrats Make Counterproposal to End Government Shutdown
The Wall Street Journal reports Democrats Make Counterproposal to End Government Shutdown
Under Schumer’s plan, which he has shared with Senate Democrats, lawmakers would then establish a bipartisan commission to devise changes to the Affordable Care Act, which Republicans have demanded as they seek to rein in federal healthcare spending.
“After so many failed votes, it’s clear we need to try something different,” Schumer said. After he spoke, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D., Wis.) and other Democrats who had rejected a Republican-backed bill to fund the government through Nov. 21 said they could support the approach.
But Senate Republicans quickly rejected the idea and said the offer was a sign that Democrats were caving. GOP lawmakers stuck to their position that negotiations on the subsidies could only occur after Democrats vote to end the shutdown. Democrats had originally sought a permanent extension of the subsidies, at a 10-year cost of roughly $350 billion.
“They’re feeling the heat, and they know that their last proposal was unserious and unrealistic,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) told reporters, calling the new offer a “nonstarter.”
The Democratic proposal came as Republicans were growing frustrated with efforts to hold a vote on a revised GOP proposal. Thune indicated he could hold a vote on narrow legislation to pay federal workers during the government shutdown, as negotiations dragged on with little signs of a breakthrough.
He had aimed for a Friday vote on funding most of the government through as long as January while simultaneously passing a trio of full-year bills funding military construction and veterans programs; the legislative branch; and the U.S. Agriculture Department. But by the afternoon he said that likely wouldn’t happen, instead floating the possibility of holding a vote on a bill from Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wis.) to pay all federal workers, including those who are furloughed, during a shutdown.
“At some point, they’ve got to make a decision about whether or not they want to keep this going or they want to end it,” Thune said of Democrats. He said the Senate would likely work into the weekend.
More than 20 million people currently benefit from the enhanced ACA subsidies. Open enrollment for next year’s ACA plans began this month, and users will face increased premiums if no extension is made.
Thune has promised to negotiate on the subsidies after the government reopens and has also offered a guaranteed vote, but not a guaranteed outcome. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) said this week that he wasn’t making any guarantees on holding even a vote.
Decision Irony
“At some point, they’ve got to make a decision about whether or not they want to keep this going or they want to end it,” Thune said of Democrats.
Schumer’s offer reverses the setup.
How I see it: “At some point, Republicans have to make a decision about whether or not they want to hold out for 100 marbles or accept 98.”
Republicans would be crazy not to accept this offer. It’s just one year. And they can block further extensions easily.
Questions of the Day
Q: Now that Democrats have an offer on the table, where will independents and swing voters place the blame if the shutdown lingers?
A: On Republicans of course. That was likely the case anyway, but this seals it.
Q: Can Democrats trust republicans to honor the deal?
A: Believe it or not, the answer is yes, but carefully.
Q: Mish, have you lost your mind?
A: No. The way it needs to work is for the House to propose a bill that the Democrats can agree to. Then there is a vote in the Senate with no amendments.
As long as there are no Senate amendments to a bill that originates in the House, the bill would head straight to Trump for signing.
Trump should hop on this right away.
Q: Will he?
A: I have no idea. But if he does, he will brag about it.
Q: Would this be a big win for Republicans?
A: Yes, they will have given up the bare minimum and put the blame game in the past.
Observation on Temporary
By definition, a one-year extension is for only one-year. Mercy me, we may have the first temporary extension of anything by Congress in history.
That’s what Republicans should latch on to. Seldom do you get a deal with Democrats that costs so little.
And it ends the blame game that Republicans were losing.
Competing Plans to End the Government Shutdown Are All Flawed
Earlier today I noted Three Competing Plans to End the Government Shutdown Are All Fatally Flawed
Competing Plans
- Trump: “Just Say NO.” NO means the Nuclear Option. Kill the Filibuster.
- Senate: Pass funding bills but promise a vote on Obamacare extensions.
- House: Wait. Refuse to even agree to have a vote on Obamacare extensions.
Pragmatically speaking, a genuine one-year extension is likely the best Republicans can do.
Addendum
Grok responded to my post on X
Republicans should accept the one-year extension. It halts the shutdown’s political damage, where independents increasingly blame GOP intransigence, while committing only $35 billion temporarily versus Democrats’ $350 billion permanent ask. This buys time for substantive ACA reforms under full Republican control, avoiding rushed changes amid enrollment chaos. Rejecting it risks ceding narrative ground without guaranteed leverage.
No! Our present health system is poorly designed and it doesn’t facilitate the importance of wellness as it’s primary goal. Cognizant Parenting in regards to family health and nutritional needs would be a wonderful start, which also should include premarital/family counseling before starting a family. If we spent more time focusing on the root causes of degenerative health issues and less time on which political party has the best plan (FAIL!)… “THE PLAN SHOULD BE TO EDUCATE, NOT OBFUSCATE!” … (PS. Yes, public/private partnerships are ripe with malfeasance)
One would think it was clear as day. When you are $38 TRILLION in debt, you cannot afford subsidized healthcare in its current form.
All the bickering below does not change that.Passing the buck, or assigning blame becomes pointless. What you have is a dysfunctional government. Now, how do you fix that?
Voters are clearly blaming Republicans for the shutdown. Yet, it is the Democrats who are making huge concessions while Republicans are being maximalists, securing defeat from the jaws of victory. I thought Republicans would do badly in next year’s mid-terms, but with this kind of weak opposition they might just sail through.
I just added up the CalPers approved rate increases since 2020. Health insurance premiums have increased by 38% since then. Other numbers for other states etc are likely higher. Its a big part that I don’t hear anyone talking about which is that health insurance may have been (barely) affordable without subsidies in 2020. Those are now barely affordable WITH subsides. And now the subsidy is going away.
Its like we (the government) try the same tactic over and over; with housing, higher education, healthcare.. they make the ‘affordable’ [thingie] act where they take something barely affordable and then subsidize it. and Surprise! the price goes up so that it is again barely affordable even with the subsidy. The subsidy just turns into a transfer of wealth from the taxpayer (or the infant ‘future taxpayer’) to the industry providing the unaffordable thing.
It would be nice if government would actually address the structural issues that make healthcare expensive, but that may inconvenience the campaign donors and lobbyists. Easier to kick the can down the road a few years by deficit-spending a solution.
Take the deal Now. A year from now the GOP will still control Congress.
Sarcasm, for those who don’t see it.
They don’t even need control.
There is no way they would have votes to override a veto.
For that matter, nothing would get out of the Senate.
Which is a polite way of saying, we’re fudged.
The government that governs the best, governs the least
Why accept when you could be starving poor people. The democrats need to offer something cruel and pointless to get their attention.
All that covid spending, came with the value of our dollar going down 15~20%.
One would have thought that the death of over a million old or weakened people would have saved some medical spending today. Sure it is a bit cynical but our aging population is a significant burden since we spend sooooooo.much on the last few months of life.
The $350 billion over ten years is really nothing when you consider that Trump wants to give well over a trillion per year to the Department of War and Aggression.
Elections have consequences!
The Republicans talked about extending this offer at the outset, which the Democrats immediately batted down. The Democrats acted in incredibly bad faith for over a month, and now they want to accept the offer? What, as a reward for awful behavior? They can pound sand.
No they didn’t. They have consistently insisted the government open first, and then allow a vote, which the Democrats would almost certainly lose.
September 20, 2025, Lisa Murkowski:
“As health insurance companies set their rates ahead of November’s open enrollment period, I am proposing a one-year extension of the enhanced premium tax credits to help stabilize costs for those on the exchanges. Federal relief has made healthcare more accessible and affordable for Americans. Abruptly ending these subsidies would result in much higher costs and millions losing their insurance, placing increased strain on our healthcare system.”
She and her colleagues got back a “hard no” from the Democrats, so it never went anywhere.
Don’t speak of things you have no knowledge of.
She was lobbying/pleading to Thune LOL
She doesn’t bring a vote forward in the Senate; Thune can and does. And I’d ask you to point out such a Republican past proposal that included a one-year extension that Democrats voted down. I’m sure we’ll all be waiting awhile for your response
And the second part of Murkowski’s statement is a Democrat talking point LOL
You should really stop listening to the conservative talking head feeding you this crap
HubrisEverywhereOnline is offering yet another attempt at revisionist history. Here’s what really happened:
October 7, 2025, from The Hill:
“Jeffries, though, has other ideas, saying a one-year extension is “a non-starter.” He emphasized that President Trump and Republicans had adopted a permanent extension of tax cuts for the country’s wealthiest people earlier in the year. With that in mind, he’s demanding a similarly permanent extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies, which overwhelmingly help working class people.”
You guys really need to give it up. The reality is that the Democrats are children throwing a tantrum that has lasted over 35 days, the longest IN HISTORY.
Nice cherry-picking (again) of quotes out of context.
That same article from The Hill (LOL) discusses the response from House Speaker Johnson (before Jeffries’ quote) about the one-year extension plan of R-VA Kiggans:
“He also warned that any extension of the subsidies would have to be accompanied by major changes to how they’re structured, or he won’t bring the bill to the floor for a vote.”
The Republicans have not made a real plan for how to get Americans health insurance (just ask MTG). So yes, the minority Democrats are making their stand here to keep that insurance for millions.
Don’t like that plan, fine. But you don’t need to cherry-pick quotes or lie about what Republicans plan to do (or offered in the past) with the ACA. Everyone knows the real story.
At some point Americans will realize, spending it never going to be cut. Figure out how to protect yourself moving forward.
Personally I don’t care. If the negotiations don’t start with how much spending is being cut its a non-starter. If they want their subsidies, which I will ironically benefit from given the way I have structured my finances, they can offer spending cuts that more than offset that. Otherwise they can keep it shut down for the next year or ten.
The problem for me is that getting something means spending cuts. More spending is less than nothing. I don’t care what happens to the republican party. I don’t care if we get an economic calamity today instead of 5 years from now. The spending needs to be dealt with.
>> More spending is less than nothing.
Yes.
Since the gov collects tax by devaluation, the true measure of taxation is (more closely) related to “what the gov spends as a % of overall spending by its citizens” than “how much the gov collects”.
TPTB put the people to sleep by reducing nominal tax rates. Most people were happy to defer ebates over spending. Well now everything costs a whole lot more. And people can’t retire on 2% interest unless they banked $5M.
definitely. since they refuse to represent the people they need to resign.
It seems that the vast majority of the American population is not nearly as prosperous as statistics like inflation or growth figures suggest. I’ve seen (from afar) Michal Bordenaro’s blog, which paints a completely different picture. For example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPzmFEADu2A
I think that, unfortunately for the Republicans, what will matter most to the population in the next election is the actual state of the economy as experienced by them, rather than “statistics.”
I’m a big fan of Michael Bordenaro’s youtube channel — he is obviously quite well off himself but he understands what it’s like for the middle and lower class guy in the street and talks about what the real economy is like — record auto repos, fast food restaurants closing en masse, record numbers of house sales falling through … some of the recent topics. Highly recommended.
Trump has $1.3T/$1.5T in his coffer. He doesn’t need the dems to function. After the Mamdani fantasia was over the dems faced reality: on Dec 31, within a few working days, Obamacare is badly injured, or on life support. The gov can function without dems agreement or permission. Trump can decide which dept will die and which to keep alive. He can fund what he wants. He can support private competitive health insurance programs. Shutting down the gov was a grave mistake. There is no need to negotiate with them. If the gov can function without recession ==> the dems will lose the next elections.
I made a living, when I first retired, Coaching Corporate Execs HOW to negotiate. I am thus a bit qualified to comment here on “negotiating.”
First, let me make it clear that NO ONE IN POLITICS truly know HOW to negotiate “deeper” than a thimble of water in a 10 acre pond. Let’s be clear that even the GREAT NEGOTIATOR HIMSELF blunders constantly. How do we know?
“TACO.” It is true about him, no matter HOW you might admire his ability to turn $10Million into a billion plus. ANYONE COULD DO THAT, by the way. IT IS TOO EASY to take seed money and make it grow over time. SO, Trump is no genius.
I do however find him amusing and humor is a sign of someone of some intelligence. The Democrats look like King’s fools most of the time, taking themselves TOO seriously.
Let’s get to it: here is the error of this article, so CLEARLY seen when I read it:
“Republicans would be crazy not to accept this offer. It’s just one year. And they can block further extensions easily.”
NEVER EVER EVER reveal the weakness of your arguments to the other side. NEVER! It is lesson one in my Coaching way back when in the 1980’s.
Schumer admitted to the ease at which the Republicans can hold out. That makes Schumer a DUNCE at negotiating.
Alternative to this approach: sit down seriously with your smarter Team Mates and be sure to WRITE DOWN the strengths and weaknesses of BOTH sides of a debated negotiation. CLEARLY SPELL THEM OUT.
I learned, at a young age (25 years old) in my very first job as Supervisor of Nine Regional Offices in the SF Bay Area for a High tech company, by reporting to a GENIUS NEGOTIATOR, the Regional Manager and VP of our Region.
He took me under his wings and taught me as we worked together until I was 28…I then quit and rode a bike through Europe with my Wife (newlyweds, honeymooning in Europe for a year on a Yamaha 650 Twin which I shipped over there).
What’s my point? I SHOULD have negotiated a shorter Honeymoon to go back and continue my work with Randy. ALAS, he had already died….years later.
I fucked up.
most seed money is lost.
So it’s too easy to take seed money and make it grow over time. I would say there are many people that had jobs like running a football or playing a baseball game that made millions that have not made it grow. Lottery winners that squandered their entire fortune. 10 million to multi billion? Perhaps that 1% figure we all hear about.
It’s really annoying to listen to the panel shows on CNN and MSNBC and the whining about “THE CHILDREN!” going hungry. This is the same trope used in every situation where government handouts get trimmed or cut.
People shouldn’t have children that they can’t afford to feed and raise properly.
Any adult in a family that accepts a government handout should have to accept implantable birth control or a reversible vasectomy in order to receive the benefit. Anyone who has it removed should be permanently banned for any further government handouts and have to pay back what they received.
OMG. You want to actually address the complication of people having children they can’t afford and then burdening everyone else?? Why demand and actually enforce responsibility?? Are you a member of the Communist Party of China or something??
Next thing you know you’ll be demanding prosecutions against insurance cartels instead of Luigi. You’re SICK! /s
A country that can’t afford its citizens having children is on a path to disaster. These here are a couple of the stupidest posts I’ve seen here in a while.
That’s the difference between you and them, you have some compassion and sense of community. They are looking out for themselves, full stop. Just read their words and see.
No! The dems put a program in place that expires on a certain date. They should have been negotiating possible changes back in 2024, not 3 months prior to expiration.
ACA Subsidies don’t go away when this extension expires, they just return to what they were prior to the Covid scaredemic.
If you can’t afford health insurance, then that’s on you. Plan better.
Almost everybody on Obamacare gets a subsidy. A large number of them are self-employed white males with a stay-at-home wife and white babies. Plumbers. Electricians. Country musicians (I know two of them). Farmers. If you want to screw over Trump’s base, fine with me.
I think many of these people use the program because it’s there and yet out of principle would support cuts, even if it affects them, because they know there’s too much markup in the shitty services anyway. They’ll probably tell themselves to eat less, eat better, take better care of themselves, and stop wasting tax money.
Lol if you’re serious
JoJo is a clown endlessly asking for more medicare and social security. He’s frequently here asking to raise the caps on social security. Sorry JoJo, if you didn’t plan for your own medical needs and income needs for your elder years that’s on you.
“Any adult in a family that accepts a government handout should have to accept implantable birth control” -JoJo
And any boomer collecting social security or medicare should keep their trap shut and be 100% cut off from social programs after they reach age 80 and voluntarily submit to the solyent green factory.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
This is the best you can muster? [rotflol]
Time to effect exit plan is here. Be gone with you!
No. Republicans should permanently eliminate Obamacare subsidies.
I agree, and I’m super excited for trump getting impeached in early 2027, which is an almost unavoidable outcome of such a policy. Probably happening either way though.
The GOP would be foolish to accept the one year deal. Then the next round of negotiations comes just before midterms. The off year election is over, the Democrats have no more ammunition left. This one can go on into next year, better than playing it all again anyway next Summer. The bill is simply an extension of current squandering, but the Democrats always want more. If the GOP caves then they will pass nothing ever under the Filibuster Rule. The Democrats vote no on everything ‘just because’ Trump is President. Let it stay closed and trash-can Ron Johnson’s bill to pay for these vacations.
Perfectly explained.
Neither of you understand math.
The math is this.
Democrats cannot pass anything. A one year extension would be the end of it no matter what happens in the midterms.
The cost is next to nothing.
Now Republicans are the ones blocking, And let’s assume they “win” as you foolishly want. 24 million people, a majority in Red states by the way, are all pissed off.
It’s political idiocy to hold out for more.
Mish,
What are the Republicans blocking?
If the Republicans do nothing the government goes unfunded. So the Republicans chose to fund the government at level X. Democrats say level X is not good enough and so THEY BLOCK the funding legislation.
What stops the minority party from holding out for more spending next year and the year after?
The dems eradicate Trump bc he is a Trump failed again and again. Now it’s time for payback !
Scott, you dug JUST BELOW THE SURFACE in a negotiation. You KNOW that, right? Your points, all of them, are the surface facts related to this negotiation.
DIG DEEPER.
THINK! It is obvious, that I do not want to offend anyone here.
Hint: what do the Democrats, and The Republicans FEAR MOST. FEARS are what drive negotiations, in the end!
If I were a team mate to the republicans, I would be NOW focusing on what the Democrats FEAR MOST!
Anyone here know that answer. I just got up in Europe, so I am 5-8 hours ahead of Americans.
I will come back. It is 6am here.
Losing Power and thus Control…
Being exposed for how their planning over the last sixteen years has had an underlying sinister element against their own citizens. It’s not an accident that housing is unaffordable. In fact, it’s a problem that could be solved, effectively overnight.
– Being exposed for how their planning over the last sixteen years has had an underlying sinister element against their own citizens. > Who is “Their” and for 16 Years, Hmm… what exactly is this “sinister element” that you speak of? Against All Citizens?
– It’s not an accident that housing is unaffordable. > It’s called Inflation, amongst a lot of other things relating to finance, and cost increases and how disruptive it all is to the economy.
– In fact, it’s a problem that could be solved, effectively overnight. > Not on your best night, and solving it effectively is impossible quickly, as it must be pulled down to where it belongs (ie affordable) to create movement again within the economy as a whole. That could take a decade or more, with lots of bankruptcies, foreclosures, banks folding, credit dried up etc.
overnight… Not a chance!
Ever hear the song, “50 ways to leave your lover?” There are at least 50 ways to solve the unaffordability crisis. Maxine Waters would bury every one of them.
(1) Require banks to carry real estate loans, make securitization of real estate illegal.
(2) Remove all ties between the GSEs and government. Any housing loan providers must be private entities.
(3) Cut the FHFA conforming loan limit in half, overnight.
(4) Phase out all tax breaks, credits, exemptions, and ability to depreciate real estate, over a five year period.
(5) Allow people to build their own homes on their owned property. Only allow four things the government can check for: proper sanitation, proper water management, proper connection to the electrical system if the owner decides to connect to the grid, *reasonable* fire management. When property changes hands, people are explicitly buying at their own risk, and are free to raze existing structures to the ground and start over.
(6) No government subsidies of any kind provided for housing, for neither the provider nor consumer side.
There are at least 44 other solutions, all leading to the same place — lower home prices.
Here is the only one you actually need: make it illegal for banks to make a loan for over 80% of the value of a piece of real estate where the value is calculated at the inflation adjusted price from first sale. You can sell your property for whatever you want. You can pay whatever you want for a property. You just can’t speculate on the price with borrowed money.
Subsidies are boondoggles, designed to do precisely one thing — push up the price of the underlying product being subsidized. Democrats have been pushing this hard for 16 years now (Inflation Reduction Act, anyone?), with the net effect *always* being higher than trend price inflation for the underlying product. PS “Insurance” has a similar effect, i.e. OASDI for one example.
To clarify, in a free market, prices are set by willingness to buy, not cost to produce. In an economy where the dominant mechanism for pricing is modified by subsidies, aka communism, there is zero free market price discovery. Currently in the USA, subsidies dominate the pricing of food, housing, education, and health care. Basically, the whole CPI. So, Yay Communism?
And people wonder why things cost so much. LOL!! Let’s Go Democrats!
Subsidies aren’t communism. Communism is the ownership of the means of production solely by the government. Socialism is the ownership of the means of production by everyone with no government instantiated. Syndicalism is the ownership of the means of production by the workers within the organization.
So you are super pro subsidy? To the tune of $17,000/yr for ACA premiums? The government is paying to keep the means of production afloat across essentially the entire CPI. Sounds like Communism to me. A rose by any other name is still a rose.
Taco isn’t buying it. He could care less about those who are desitute and hurting. He probably said “let ’em’ cake.”
Tony, that is emotional. OF COURSE those in power KNOW that they are in power. Those in power get their food and medical care for free and they KNOW IT and became politicians because of it and also that they can steal the Nation blind.
Trump won without firing a shot. The dems caved in. He has $1.5T in his coffer. He can function without them. He has the power to allocate funds without Chuck’s agreement or permission. The weakling Chuck and Hakeem signaled submission. They are running out of time and ammunition. The Mamdani fantasia was over. Sentiment don’t work. Disruptions caused costly mistakes. They didn’t cut their losses. Now, they are wiped out.
You missed the entire point, and that is to open back up the Government. All issues are negotiated in the House and Senate, and until the Democrats open the Government back up, these issues cannot be addressed. They can’t hold sessions while closed for business.
Ironically it’s the Democrats Keeping The Government closed, and then bitching that the Republicans won’t help. They Can’t!!!
Um, Trump and His Administration has voted to Open The Government, every time. The Citizens NEED the Democrats to do their job, and open it back up as well. Once that’s done, we can get on with Negotiations…
They can negotiate now, or anytime. There is no reason to wait.
The House is closed because the Republicans bet that the shutdown would cause more pain on the Dems.
Nobody is certain yet which side is losing more, so both sides are keeping to their original plan.
Reason = Shut Down
Do things right or don’t do them at all. Open the damn Government!
I love that certain people have basically forgotten that this past Tuesday happened. It’s going to make for a very special Tuesday a year from now.
I’m pretty certain about which side is losing.
Trump does not want the government opened. If it does the az dem gets sworn in and the files get released. Hes either protecting himself or his buddies. They will try to delay and coverup. Eventually he will pardon everyone.
That’s such a silly comment. He and the Republicans have Voted To Open The Government Every Single Time! While the Democrats refuse to allow it to be opened up. This is how a two party system operates, and One Party can be total sh&# Heads, but the other party can do nothing about it . We rely on the Citizens to do that. I have a feeling the Democrats may take a bloodbath for this delusional effort the Democrats have placed on display.
New Democrat Motto:
Where the Democrats and we are “NOT HERE TO HELP”
With so called leaders like this, who needs them? What would people do if the Teachers Unions refused to teach? They would be replaced immediately. Same if restaurant Cooks refused to cook, they would be replaced immediately as well, For Not Doing There Jobs!! Why should the Democrats Politicians not be replaced immediately, next election, for not doing what they are being paid to do. operate the Government!!! The Democrats causing chaos as usual, so we shall see if it stings them hard this time around… Chuck won’t last from this embarrassment, so we got that going for us!
The Republicans had ten months to pass appropriations bills (there are twelve required), but couldn’t get it done.
They then asked the Dems to vote for a CR, after reneging on previous promises to the Dems. They had pursued recissions and indicated that bigger recissions were on the way.
At this point, the Republicans have to give the Dems something to vote for, not just a continuation of the toxic status quo.
Until Trump gets involved and indicates he will support a compromise with the Dems, the Republicans can’t offer anything to the Dems, because the Dems know that it’s a waste of time unless Trump says to Speaker Johnson to do it.
So we wait for Trump to get involved. Until he says “Go”, nothing’s happening.
And he wants the filibuster removed.
Which the Senate Republicans themselves don’t want.
It’s a real mess, but a super-partisan analysis like “It’s the Dems” or “It’s the GOP” misses all the nuances here.
I think the recent pictures of DjT asleep at meetings, standing frozen while aides seek to help a collapsed colleague behind Trump tell the tale. Trump cannot suspend biology or his own genetic heritage. He is 80 on his next birthday and he is disconnecting from the madness and mayhem around him. He “leads” in fits and spurts, and could be the poster boy for Adhd. Regardless of partisan preferences, his condition complicates any path to solution.
If Trump is such a great deal maker let him figure out a deal that works!
He is trying, but has continually met roadblocks…
He sees the impasse as a route to more power. Force the Senate to cough up the filibuster, and he can make the Senate Republicans pass any laws he wants from here on out.
They then asked shutdowns isn’t affecting him personally at all, that’s why he has Speaker Johnson and the House on vacation for now.
Mish is stuck on 2-dimensional chess. I say this not to argue that Trump is playing 4D chess but that the situation involves outcomes not anticipated. Consider the court rulings that the administration must fund SNAP. If the judiciary rules that branches of government other than Congress can allocate spending than that opens the door for Trump to impose a “line item veto” where his administration decides what gets funded. If this is the case than Trump wins the shutdown as he gets to be “king”!
Or, it can be argued that the shutdown means the Federal government is bankrupt and this means the judiciary gets to decide what creditors are first in line for payment. If the Supreme Court agrees with this argument than we ultimately end up with the Supreme Court becoming a “Bankruptcy Court” and it decides who gets funded.
Point being, if the judiciary argues that the “shutdown” is a charade and there is money available to fund government this simply means Congress is shutdown and the Trump and the courts will then fight over who gets money. Personally, I favor this outcome. If Congress fails to do its job then the other branches of government assume the authorities that Congress has relinquished.
Breaking News: “Supreme Court lets Trump pause full SNAP payments for now”
“Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Friday temporarily paused a lower court order that required the Trump administration to cover full food stamp benefits for tens of millions of Americans in November, siding with the administration on a short-term basis in a legal fight that has quickly become a defining confrontation of the government shutdown.”
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-government-shutdown-flight-cancellations-delays-11-07-25
KBJ made the Constitutionally correct decision. Pressure back on the Senate to make a deal and send this Hot Potato back to the House.
Perhaps the all-powerful Judiciary should require Congress to get back to work or impose a solution on them? [lol]
I am one one looking moves ahead. You don’t even understand the game.
You are smart here on Negotiating. STILL, IDENTIFY THE FEARS of each side. This is what drives the “thinking” of grown men and women. As kids, fear arises from ignorance.
As ADULTS, we THINK we have nailed down our own Fears but I can spot a fearful negotiator through 10 inch thick steel walls.
I can’t help but find it very odd that people think Republicans need to Open The Government, when 100% of Republicans are Voting to Open The Government back up…
I find it even more odd, that the Democrats are asking for Money, for there Vote’s to Open The Government back up, when they can Simply Vote To Do So…
The Republicans have zero choice to being held hostage by The Democrats, so they must continue to keep Voting To Open The Government, when it’s clearly the Democrats Not doing so, and has been every single day it’s been closed…
The Republicans had ten months to pass appropriations bills, but can’t. It’s way more complex than your assumptions.
How is this not more can kicking where addressing failure is delayed till “next year”?
“Pragmatically speaking, a genuine one-year extension is likely the best Republicans can do.”
Wrong a one-year extension is a kick the can extension. The ACA had subsidies up to 138% of Federal Poverty level not 400%. You can’t be for controlling spending and reducing the deficit and for extending subsidies to those with 6-fiture incomes. The answer is to do a clean CR and then repeal the 10 essential benefits of the ACA and allow lower price health care products. This is a hill to die on. The R’s will probably lose in the midterms so hold fast now.
You can be for controlling spending and paying down the debt when you billions to other countries and tax breaks to the wealthy.
How many seats do you want to lose. for the sake of what?
You know damn well there are not enough votes to kill ACA outright, probably not even if they kill the filibuster!
Can’t anyone here look ahead?
Even if there were enough, it could be there last…
I agree but I also see illegal immigrants on the government dole and they should be completely eliminated from that option. ACA is fine but people here illegally deserve nothing and should be deported like they are in other countries. My wife’s brother and sister had to leave Mexico as kids though they were Mexican citizens because their parents were American citizens and were deported (though they too spoke little or no English). That’s how it works everywhere else. A citizen stays and everyone else has to follow rules.
Again, the Republicans still do not have a budget that can be successfully passed after the CR expires which is only 2 weeks away. And because Johnson lives in this fantasy land where he can ignore the Democrats he has no bills ready to go. So blame Dems, but Republicans are in charge and not delivering much. Given all the money we approved for ICE, I think a year extension of health subsidies is a small price to pay. Finally if you want to explore waste in government, my suggestion check out ICE – no bid contracts flying out the door.
This article says that extending the Obamacare subsidies would cost $350B over ten years. I’ve also heard the figure “$1.5 trillion dollars”. Can someone explain the difference?
$350bil is the correct amount.
The $350 billion is Washington DC CBO hocus pocus. I went back and forth with an AI on this and as far as could tell, the CBO is counting on health insurance continuing to rise while ACA subsidies don’t, forcing many people off the roles of the eligible cohort for the subsidies, thus reducing the cost of the subsidies for planning purposes. As I said, hocus pocus.
A 1 year extension gets us to the mid terms where it’s increasingly likely the Dems will take at least one if not both houses. At that point it will be impossible to repeal or adjust Obama care subsidies unless Dems want to (and that’s unlikely).
The ONLY way the Republicans can take this is if there is an absolute agreement that SOMETHING must pass before the mid terms. If the Dems agree to pass something before then, sure, a deal can be made. Otherwise this is the last chance to get something done before midterms.
Disagree with you here.
The ACA was implemented with zero Republican votes, which included insurance premium subsidies for people up to 400% of the poverty level income. Those subsidies are not going away. The promise of the ACA was that it would help lower the cost of healthcare in the US. Well, that’s not really working is it? So, the Democrats are doing everything in their power to subsidize rising healthcare costs (which only serves to feed the beast–a la student loans and cost of higher education).
Fast forward to COVID and Biden’s first (or close to first?) legislative act. A $1.9 Trillion stimulus package, which introduced the enhanced subsidies. It was “temporary” because it needed to be in order for the Democrats to pass the law using reconciliation, because, like the ACA, they shoved the stimulus through without any Republican support. R’s were arguing at the time that it was far too large of a stimulus bill (and, in my opinion, they were right).
Fast forward to the “Inflation Reduction Act”, which again, was passed via reconciliation (with no Republican votes), and again, extended the enhanced subsidies, but only “temporarily” through the end of 2025.
This would be the second time that these “temporary” subsidies were extended.
Democrats are hoping to continue to “temporarily” extend the enhanced subsidies with the hope that eventually they can make them permanent. I’ve got a bridge to sell you if you think these subsidies will end in 2026 (certainly not without Democrats willing to shut down the government again over their extension).
While we can argue about the magnitude, these subsidies absolutely contributed to the inflation that, in my opinion, put the current lunatic in to the White House.
Enough is enough.
“The promise of the ACA was that it would help lower the cost of healthcare in the US.”
The premise was it would help slow the growth of healthcare costs.
Fair. I intended to convey the idea that HC costs would grow more slowly (generally being lower over time than if the ACA wasn’t passed), no one (that I know of) expected them to go down.
Nicely stated!
I just want to understand what’s on the table. The Democrats wanted to extend these subsidies. The Republicans wanted them to sign onto a clean CR and discuss the subsidies and health care later, which could also have meant the Republicans would not have given the Democrats enough in subsequent negotiations so we were shut down, the Democrats refusing to sign the clean CR. Now you’re saying the Republicans should take a deal that essentially gives the Democrats what they wanted all along because it’s allegedly for just one more year, like that’s some form of compromise? The extension of the subsidies was never going to be in perpetuity from the start of this shutdown so this just looks like the Democrats get exactly what they wanted all along and the Republicans give in completely.
Sounds about right.
The Republicans thought they were dealing the Democrats a weak hand. Trump thought he was going to easily bully weakling Schumer into submission. They were gleeful about their prospects. Giddy about the outcome they anticipated: a public thrashing of the Democrats They were going to beat Schumer into submission. Trump started out mean and got nasty as hell. What they didn’t notice is they dealt themselves Aces and Eights. They should have taken Schumer’s offer and exited their self-manufactured nightmare stage right.
Trump still has better cards than Schumer. Watch what happens with SNAP. If the Supreme Court rules the administration must fund SNAP lacking Congressional approval that means the administration can spend money independent of Congressional authorization. This in effect writes Congress out of the picture and grants the Administration full budgetary power. At which point the Democrats are losers and are resigned to going to court to argue what money they want.
Yes, let’s watch SNAP. And watch Trump and republicans defend that along with taking the blame for Obamacare pissing off 24 million as well.
Democrats made an offer. Total cost a genuine one-time $35B.
Open up the Government and it’s DONE!!
Uh, no.
Most would not have been re-elected as a result. I and many others, would hold them accountable much more than the Dems can or would…
Yep! They want one more golden egg before they agree to open up again however…
“…instead floating the possibility of holding a vote on a bill from Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wis.) to pay all federal workers, including those who are furloughed, during a shutdown.”
There is a statute that furloughed Federal workers will receive back pay only if Congress appropriates the money when re-opening the government. If Sen Johnson’s original deal passed, the government would not have paid furloughed workers. Dem’s balked, because somehow its better to hold paychecks hostage of those who actually performed work in order to get pay for those who did no work while furloughed.
Nonetheless, Sen Johnson amended his offer to include backpay for furloughed workers. This is a great offer, as long as it’s otherwise a clean bill. Many government employees vote blue. Thune needs to bring it up for a vote because he’s making the same mistake of using a continuing resolution to approve long term spending that belong in annual budget negotiations. Dem’s wanted Obamacare subsidy extensions for this fiscal year in exchange for re-opening the government. If Dems don’t pass Sen Johnson’s bill, Dems have missed an opportunity to be part of a win-win solution.
I think we should give illegal immigrants drugs, housing, steak dinners and when the petulant man children continue to say its not enough, we should encourage these unemployed window lickers to take in the illegals as roommates.
Maybe even make it a YouTube ppv event.
I ask again, what illegals? Are you saying Trump hasn’t secured the border and deported millions of people? Are you saying its all a lie? Are you saying Trump is impotent or incompetent or lying about illegals?
You seem to be suffering from “illegals derangement syndrome” so maybe seek some help.
Are you saying there are no illegals in the country? Because that is laughable. I get your sarcasm, of course Trump has not deported all illegals
Illegals have been coming into NY since the 1980s dude.
The ones that work and dont commit crimes, I have no problem with. The ones that dont work and commit crimes need to be ejected from the country. But Democrats and their NGOs fight that every day
Trumps mistake is allowing ICE to just show up anywhere where they suspect any type of illegal and just end up scaring the entire hispanic neighborhood or city they came into. If he doesn’t clean that up in the next 3 years that will cost republicans. That should make you happy
And yeah, I’m still angry. And not saying this is you but I can’t stand the people that kept their mouth shut for 4 years with whomever was running the Biden Administration and now all they do is complain about Trump and whats wrong with America as if that started all because of Trump.
Trump is still around and became more popular because of how fucked up the Democrats ran this country on a federal and local level
People south of the border see ICE “scaring the Hispanic community” and they decide not to try to sneak in.
The fundamental problem I have with people blaming illegals for the ills of the health care system is that it detracts from the real crisis. This country is in a demographic death spiral. The reason health insurance premiums and medical cost are through the roof is because as the population ages, more healthcare is required.
As the entire population ages, more healthcare will be needed. I frequently note the 80+ million boomers that will be sucking up all the healthcare but there are also 30+ million GenXers and 40 million millennials right after. Most of these people have saved very little to pay for their medical care during their elder years. It wouldn’t be too bad but young people aren’t having kids so you have a country top heavy old people and not enough young people. Add to it that MAGA idiots want to end immigration further exacerbating the problem. Immigrants were the lone area where population growth was happening. Of course MAGA doesn’t care, these are mostly toxic boomers heading to the graveyard.
This is basic supply vs demand 101. I know a few clowns here that I won’t name think AI, robots, and free money will fix everything but that’s not going to happen. What is going to happen is health care costs, insurance costs are going to explode and there will be long wait times. So long that people will die awaiting care.
I don’t have a solution to the problem, I have my own solutions that I’m executing exactly because I see the horrible problem that’s coming. At a bare minimum, Congress needs to have some type of plan in place but I’m not holding my breath. It’s going to be an epic health care disaster.
Don’t say you weren’t warned. The current airport meltdown is a snapshot preview of what will happen to the healthcare system in about 5 years, maybe sooner if all the young people start moving overseas.
Clown weighs in – Well, you had better HOPE that AI takes over and does what I say could happen because otherwise there will not be any solution.
Go back and review all the heath insurance threads Mish has posted and tell me if anything propose din any of them to fix the problems has occurred?
OK, let me save you the time. The answer is a big fat NO!
So why do you think that this time anything would be different, other than via my radical and revolutionary solution?
Well Elon has been saying autonomous cars will be here next year for 11 (now 12) years in a row. He’s now doing the same with robots.
https://www.jalopnik.com/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-cars-anniversary-autopilot-1850432357/
I am sure there will be some eventual limited success but not enough to take care of billions of people around the world at the scale that will be needed. If we couldn’t get an EV grid for electric cars up and running fast enough there’s no way robots get done.
Don’t hold your breath.
Autonomous cars are here in the form of Waymo, Zoox and others.
Per CNBC:
Don’t know what backwater you live in to not see the incredible number of autonomous cars riding around.
Musk is an idea person. He likes to talk futures but has difficulty with implementation, which is why Tesla autonomous cars are far behind Waymo and others and why his humanoid robots are far behind the Chinese.
You clearly don’t keep up with the technologies, so really should not be opining on anything that you don’t understand well.
I don’t know how many times it has to said on this message board… illegal immigrants (and many types of legal immigrants) are not eligible for ACA tax credits.
If Fox tells them that it’s true, they repeat it like it is the gospel.
Works the same on the lib side.
Lol.
No
I believe earlier the Republicans offered a deal like this earlier on and the Democrats rejected it.
They never offered such a deal.
Thune keeps repeating the same deal.
NO – 10% of what its was previous maximum, if anything
If illegals can in any possible way get any government benefits the answer is no. I voted for Trump to get rid of these people that Biden irresponsibly allowed in. Obeying the law has become a sick joke to the majority of the American public. Enough is enough.
The two cannot be possibly true at the same time. Which one is it?
Did I write it happens at exactly the same time or are you clueless.
In the early 1990s my kids attended catechism at the neighborhood Catholic church in Dallas. We still have the photographs. My kids were the only white kids in the class, around 30 kids, and the only English speaking kids in the class. Texas has been begging illegal Mexicans to swim across the Rio Grande to work in agriculture, restaurants, construction, hospitality, domestic industries since the freaking Alamo days.
Texas employers, landlords, teachers, and all of the other groups that make money from illegal immigration may beg for immigrants (legal or illegal). The taxpayers, labor, renterm and those that compete for goods and services do not beg for illegals if it means a lower standard of living. The law of supply and demand is not suspended because the subject happens to be illegal immigration. Don’t any of you people see the complete picture?
That first half of the sentence nailed it but I agree, it’s a no-brainer to take this deal but we’ll find out how mentally ill repubs are soon enough.
You are suffering from long TDS.
In this case, absolutely not.
Mental illness appears to be more of a Democrat issue these days. Unless you find calling for the murder of your political opposition acceptable behavior.