Perhaps Iowa farmers' biggest fear is becoming a harsh reality: The escalating U.S.-China trade dispute erupted Friday, with each country vowing to levy 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion in goods.

U.S. and Iowa agriculture is caught in the crossfire, with farmers selling $14 billion in soybeans to China last year, its top export market.

Soybeans are among hundreds of U.S. products China has singled out for tariffs. The U.S. has an equally long list that includes taxing X-ray machines and other Chinese goods.

Iowa farmers could lose up to $624 million, depending on how long the tariffs are in place and the speed producers can find new markets for their soybeans, said Chad Hart, an Iowa State University economist.

U.S. soybean prices have fallen about 12 percent since March, when the U.S.-China trade dispute began.

Iowa is the nation's second-largest soybean grower, producing 562 million bushels last year worth $5.2 billion.

"It will slow down the market. Even with the tariffs in place, we will ship a lot of soybeans to China," Hart said. "It just won't be nearly the amount we did before.

China's Retaliation List

The $624 million figure is for soybeans alone. Iowa is hit by other products on China's retaliation list.

I discussed the list on June 15: Chinese Tariff List Translated, 545 Items: US Farmers and Automakers Clobbered

China's tariff list contains beef, pork, wheat, and corn.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Increasingly Angry Farmers Blame Trump, Not China

Farmers are angry over crop reports, broken ethanol promises, tariffs, crop reports, Trump, and mounting debt.

Tariff Backlash Could Cost Republicans the Senate

The math for Democrats to win the Senate looks extremely daunting. However, I see more than a reasonable shot for them.

Trump Tweets "Tariffs are the Greatest!" Seeks "One-Time" Aid to Farmers

Trump offers farmers $12B in "one-time" aid to stem allegedly "illegal" trade retaliation by China and the EU.

Chinese Tariff List Translated, 545 Items: US Farmers and Automakers Clobbered

I ran China's 14-page, 545 item tariff list through a translator. You can download the translated doc.

China Strikes Back: US Pig Farmers Bear Brunt of Trade Retaliation

In Trump's "easy to win trade war" script, US farmers will suffer from China's initial response.

Trump Claims US Farmers Treated Unfairly Then Uses Strategies That Hurt Farmers

Trump claims US farmers are treated unfairly. So what does he do? Enters trade wars that hurt US farmers.

Trump Asks China to Shift Soybean Tariffs to Something Else

As part of a trade deal, the US and China will both keep $50 billion in tariffs. Trump asked China to shift tariffs.

Trump Tells Aides to Proceed With $200 Billion in Tariffs on China

Despite talks with China, Trump instructs aids to place $200 billion in tariffs on China. Another $267 billion on deck.

Trump Says Consumers Can "Very Easily" Take a 10% Tariff Hit on Goods from China

Farm bankruptcies are on the rise and Apple is struggling with falling sales but more tariffs are coming says Trump.