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Despite Widespread Belief in Strong Inflation, the Long Bond Suggests Otherwise

The yield curve has been flattening. What are the implications?
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US Treasury Yields 2021-10-14

Yields are not close to inverting yet but the trend is recessionary, not inflationary.

US Treasury Yields 2021

US Treasury Yields Detail 2021-10-14

That might look like a meaningless blip but it isn't. 

If there were inflation fears in bonds, it would manifest itself first and foremost at the long end. 

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Instead, the long end of the curve is now falling while the 2-year rate is going up. This is a recessionary flattening of the curve that one should pay attention to.

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