by Mish

GdpNow sits at 0.9% and Nowcast at 2.9% so the Discrepancy widens by a tick to two percentage points.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 0.9 percent — March 31, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 31, down from 1.0 percent on March 24. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 1.4 percent to 0.8 percent. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.49 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after Tuesday’s Advance Economic Indicators Report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

FRBNY Nowcast Latest Forecast: 2.9 percent — March 31, 2017

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  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.9% for 2017:Q1 and 2.6% for 2017:Q2.
  • Negative news from consumption data reduced the nowcast by about one-tenth of a percentage point for both quarters.

Consumer Spending Disaster

I expected today’s personal income and outlays report would change the forecast by about half a percentage point to the downside. It was a disaster.

Instead, GDPNow and Nowcast both declined a mere 0.1 percentage points. Why?

The following table from GDPNow helps explain.

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In between reports, the effect of the advance economic indicators was +0.2 percentage points. Thus the personal income and outlays report did have a sizable impact.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

Divergence Between GDPNow and FRBNY Nowcast Hits Two Full Percentage Points

Since February 24, a string of bad economic reports drove the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1st quarter GDP from 2.5% to 1.2%

GDPNow 2.5%, NY Fed Nowcast 1.7%; Huge Discrepancies: Why?

The New York Fed released its GDP “Nowcast” today. The New York Fed model expects 1.7% seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR), a jump of 0.5 percentage points from last week.

Gap Between Nowcast and GDPNow Narrows to 1.9 Percentage Points: Or Does It? What Happened?

On Friday, the FRBNY Nowcast estimate for first quarter GDP dipped from 3.2% to 2.8%.

GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent

Te Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model inched up to 1.0% from 0.9% on Friday. Nothing much mattered since a week ago.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.

Nowcast, GDPNow Diverge Widely Again: What Happened?

After converging, the gap between the GDPNow Model forecast and the FRBNY Nowcast model has widened again.

Massive 1.8 Percentage Point Spread Between GDPNow and Nowcast: What's Going On?

GDPNow estimates second-quarter GDP at 4.7%. The FRBNY Nowcast estimates 3.9%. Why the discrepancy?

Nowcast GDP Estimate 1 Percentage Point Higher Than GDPNow

Following Friday's jobs report the GDPNow forecast slid from 3.2% to 2.9%.