by Mish

In the same timeframe, the FRBNY Nowcast Model rose slightly from 3.1% tp 3.2% in a report released today.

The gap between the models is now two full percentage points. I expected the gap to partially close today, but instead, the gap widened.

FRBNY Nowcast March 10, 2017

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I have commented before that it is not the data that matters but rather how the data came in compared to what the model expected.

However, this strongly divergent path, where not even the general overall direction is consistent, suggests something is seriously wrong with at least one of the models.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock.

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

Discrepancy Between GDPNow and Nowcast is Two Percentage Points Once Again

In the past week, the GDPNow Model declined by 0.2 percentage points. The Nowcast Model for first quarter GDP inched down by 0.1 percentage points.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.

GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent

Te Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model inched up to 1.0% from 0.9% on Friday. Nothing much mattered since a week ago.

GDPNow 1st Quarter Estimate Dips to 1.2%, FRBNY Nowcast 3.1%: One Model is Seriously Wrong

The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.

Massive 1.8 Percentage Point Spread Between GDPNow and Nowcast: What's Going On?

GDPNow estimates second-quarter GDP at 4.7%. The FRBNY Nowcast estimates 3.9%. Why the discrepancy?

Gap Between Nowcast and GDPNow Narrows to 1.9 Percentage Points: Or Does It? What Happened?

On Friday, the FRBNY Nowcast estimate for first quarter GDP dipped from 3.2% to 2.8%.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

Nowcast, GDPNow Diverge Widely Again: What Happened?

After converging, the gap between the GDPNow Model forecast and the FRBNY Nowcast model has widened again.