Here are some slides that caught my eye. The comments beneath each chart are mine.
Product Finding
The search begins with Amazon and increasingly ends at Amazon.
Social Media Role in Product Purchases
Social media plays a huge role in purchases. This explains the ad revenue of Facebook.
Household Debt Highest Ever Despite Low Unemployment
Household debt is high and rising. The Fed blew another housing bubble (everything bubble really).
Disturbing Trends in Savings and Debt-to-Income Ratio
People save less and less. Don’t let the percentage fool you. Most people don’t save anything.
Relative Spending Increases: Shelter, Insurance, Healthcare
Where’s the money going? Shelter. Not only is shelter the biggest expense, it has grown at the highest percentage.
Relative Spending Increases: Food, Entertainment, Apparel
I often get into debates with people regarding food. I claim it’s a bargain. Why? There is little government interference.
Technology Disruption Curves
That fascinating chart explains what is about to happen with autonomous vehicles in the next decade.
History Says There Will Be Jobs
History says there will be plenty of jobs. I agree, although most don’t. The question though, is what will those jobs pay? On that, I am not so optimistic vs consumer debt loads.
The US as a Business
Trump claims he will run the US like a business. When will he start?
US Debt-to-GDP Highest Since WWII
The US was able to grow at a fast clip following WWII because US productive capacity was not destroyed, unlike Europe and Japan. A baby boom followed. There is no savior on the horizon this time.
US Debt-to-GDP Vs. Other Countries
A global debt crisis awaits.
US Entitlement Spending
Clearly, the current path is not sustainable. However, the US will stay on that path as long as Congress fails to address the issue. And here’s a hint: Congress will not address the issue. Boomers will die first.
Medicare and Medicaid
Excellent Presentation
Thank you, Mary Meeker, for another excellent presentation.
Meeker is a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. She presented her annual report on internet trends Wednesday at Recode’s Code Conference.
Meeker has come a long way from her 2000 era “internet queen” persona.
CNBC provides a Scribd view of the presentation. I dislike embedded Scribd files so I downloaded the report and selected a baker’s dozen set of charts that I liked.
Regarding Debt
As noted above, the US path is not sustainable. However, the US will stay on this path as long as Congress fails to address the issue.
Alternatively, millennials could hijack both houses of Congress and the executive branch as well. But would they renege or promises or make additional free money promises like universal income?
Trump said he would run the US like a business. But businesses don’t lose money for 45 years and stay in business.
I believe Italy is a prelude to future US events. Populists will eventually take over.
For a discussion of what the eventual debt outcome may look like, please see Grave Consequences: Italy Bond Yields Soar, Protests Called, Euro Referendum.
Also see Italy: “Whatever It Takes” Stage Two, President Mattarella’s Strategic Blunder
Meanwhile, technology marches on.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
If people in San Francisco were banned from buying and building new computers, cell phones and flat screen TVs, their cost for entertainment would follow the same development as that of their costs for housing as well…..
Not exactly rocket science to anyone not hopelessly economically illiterate beyond any and all possible explanation why shelter in particular, but also the FIRE rackets of pension and “insurance”, and ever more regulated “health care,” are getting pricier and pricier. Despite every force of economics naturally conspiring to reduce all costs over time.
But idiots will be idiots, I guess. And, as Mencken pointed out, Demooooocracy is those guys’ playground. Where they get to be robbed, raped, duped, harassed and otherwise abused by others of their ilk. Never ever getting to the point of understanding why? Nor much of anything else, for that matter. They’re more useful that way.
My thoughts also, there is a tremendous amount of government interference in the food market, subsidies, tariffs, taxes, regulations, dietary “advice”, and on and on.
“I often get into debates with people regarding food. I claim it’s a bargain. Why? There is little government interference.”
Not true! The amount of people on food stamps nearly doubled under Obama and has gone down only a little since, despite the present high employment rate. The relative “good deal” for food is due to advances in that industry which have the deflationary effect of streamlining costs and (amazingly) government interference can’t inflate the market fast enough!
I mean, I’m not buying a refrigerator that only cools 80% of the time or a color TV that displays black and white every other day. However, I did buy a cell phone which only worked in very limited areas.
“That fascinating chart explains what is about to happen with autonomous vehicles in the next decade” Maybe, but it will have to get out of the vaporware stage first. None of those technologies took off like that until the damn thing worked.
Perhaps the declining personal savings rate from 1968 to 2008 was a reflection of changing demographics — as people who had lived through the Great Depression (and subsequently their children) retired from the work force over those years. Can’t expect subsequent generations to pay much attention to cranky old grand-dad telling them how essential it is to have savings.
Going forward, clearly a lot of debt (including government debt) is either going to be written off or rendered irrelevant by inflation. Which means that the assets intended to support pensions are going to be seriously impaired. Lots of old people are going to want to keep working as long as they possibly can. The times they are a’changing.
Note that the household debt level was reduced when unemployment was at last peak. Wonder if the reduction was a result of bankruptcies and write-offs. Looks like people have a habit of spending more as soon as they find jobs (assuming a good portion of increased debt is from those that just got out of unemployment).