Decreasing quality of goods and services, is what getting poorer entails.
Other 3rd world’ers are also used to worse products and services than Americans got accustomed to, back when America was a 1st world country.
Nothing particularly surprising about that.
prumbly
2 years ago
I stayed in an Extended Stay “hotel” recently and the place was very run down and full of poor people who seemed to be living there permanently (i.e. not visitors). I wonder who was paying their hotel bills – most likely it was me.
TheWindowCleaner
2 years ago
“This is what free money handouts do, and Biden wants more of them.”
Correct. A 50% discount/rebate policy at retail sale coupled with a universal dividend of $1000/mo. would give everyone $24k/yr in guaranteed purchasing power and enable people the freedom to choose employment as their primary means of purpose in life or to find some other activity that would likely be more rewarding and enlightening than being a food server or hotel clerk. And it’s good economics to boot. C’mon Mish, don’t become some crotchety old guy who knows the price of everything and doesn’t know the value of having the opportunity to find their bliss and/or to garner wisdom instead of being forced into being homo-economicus. Finally, with the increased demand in the economy is that going to translate into more or less employment in a modern economy, even if technological unemployment increasingly is a reality?
Most people serving food or working on a hotel desk can’t do something ‘more rewarding’ because they don’t have the ability – if they did they would already be in those better jobs. There are no jobs that don’t allow to you move to something better if you have the drive and ability. Albert Einstein was just an accounts clerk until he discovered he could make the world’s best bagels.
#1 That is your (not well informed) opinion. #2 all of the above additional benefits I just pointed out would be empirical facts and good for the economy, especially if you’re a conservative/libertarian pundit. So just look at those facts instead of fighting me and a new paradigm in finance, the money system, economics and human potentials.
Oh, and finally, finally… I can’t think of a better incentive to find employment than a policy that immediately gives a $9/hr. wage into $18/hr. of potential purchasing power and integrates the libertarian wet dream of price and asset DEFLATION into profit making economic systems. Give it up Mish, my paradigm changing policy is everything you’ve ever wanted to see in the economy…if you’d just look at it.
bubblelife
2 years ago
First world problem – I have no problem ordering a pizza and picking it up myself.
At some point you’ll be faced with a choice of heating up a frozen store-bought pizza or making your own pizza from flour, egg and tomatoes. Hope you have chickens and can grow wheat and tomatoes.
I already have the bases covered. We have a brick oven outside for cooking pizzas and last week, we received a shipment of frozen pizzas from Italy.
frozeninthenorth
2 years ago
Mish,
Although a lot of the blame can fall in the current administration, there is no doubt that the transport sector has been heading for a crisis for a long time. Prior to Covid, there was already writing on the wall that there would be a shortage of truckers, as the median age was already in the mid 40 then. Plus the additional demand; don’t know if you saw the stuff with school bus drivers that are also in short supply. While the schools were close these drivers found other work (UPS etc) and there is no financial incentive to shift back to the school bus business. If the pay is the same (or similar) why change.
As for Pizza delivery the revenues are rather terrible for the drivers, and somewhat dangerous. I knew kids who did it prior to the pandemic and tried to get back after but they said people were very aggressive, and many found jobs that were less stressful. My two nephews found jobs in the restaurant business on their first interview, and they don’t get minimum wages salaries either. They are well paid! The youngest who just turned 16 walked in a restaurant 5 minutes walk from his mom’s house and got the job on the spot (he was not even 16 at the time…he is now). A friend runs one of Montreal Michelin stared restaurants where waiter wages are much higher and he said that even he has hard time getting people, imagine a burger joint.
Labor is inelastic, its the nature of that part of the economy. Some of those who complain that no one is ready to work for minimum wages (part time) have to face the fact that once labor has choice it drives up prices rather quickly.
Also additional pressure at home with many still working from home there is more “children” sharing duty than in the past. That too has changed.
oee
2 years ago
Mish , please answer where are the Robots that would take over our jobs? if that were true, the enterprising business people would use a fleet of those to replace human labour?
Good Nissan can lend its Robots to that Domino’s franchise to it can make perfect Pizzas and deliver them.
paperboy
2 years ago
In utah the 300 closed early, end june. No jobs in small town, ended up retiring. spent it keeping the lights on, food on the table
Rbm
2 years ago
Well least we wont hear people complaining losing their job to the robots.
Talked to a tourist photo company. View your photos on line from now on. Said could not find anyone to work. I think they figured out it was cheaper and less hassle than hiring a bunch of kids to man the office.
Bungalow Bill
2 years ago
I bought an Ooni pizza oven a few months ago. I don’t need Dominos as I can make a much better pie at home. Of course, the joke is on these Americans who continue to collect their Trump and Biden COVID welfare checks and think living off the taxpayer is a much better life. Dominos like so many other businesses are going to be forced to make these American jobs obsolete as technology is proving it can deliver a pathetic tasting Dominos pizza.
Same with my Blackstone griddle. I now have the capability of making restaurant quality food on my back porch and not have to pay a tip and the high prices of menu items at a restaurant.
Henry_MixMaster
2 years ago
I will posit this: Obergruppenfuhrer McMaster cut the federal unemployment at the end of August. Now into October the understaffing in service and hospitality hasn’t changed. And max state benefits are $300 a week.
“Obergruppenfuhrer McMaster cut the federal unemployment at the end of August. Now into October the understaffing in service and hospitality hasn’t changed.”
…
A few things. One, the end to extra federal $$s was early September. Two, economic numbers take time to come out … and even then face multiple revisions. Economists initial estimates are especially poor at inflection points.
Weakness COULD* be due to US entering a recession.
*Not making that call (though Industrial Production September fugly).
whirlaway
2 years ago
Gas prices have increased. Child care costs have increased (if it is available at all). Fast food (i.e. lunch and/or dinner) prices have increased. Plus there are things like car payments (and if you have to buy a car, used car prices have increased). These are the main costs incurred when you work a job. If these are more than the $9 or $10 an hour you get in a min wage job, you are better off if you don’t take the job.
Negative cash flow is something anyone can understand. You don’t need an accounting degree for that.
I doubt there are many people spending more on working costs than they receive in salary. People can take public transportation if a car is too expensive. Are you saying the current bout of inflation made such a big difference that millions are suddenly choosing not to work because they lose money by working whereas they used to make money? I don’t believe it.
Public transportation in most places is almost non-existent. Plus, it takes lot of time just to get to work and get back. If you have to change buses or trains, the wait times keep on adding. I once had to take the walk->bus->train->walk (and back the same way) for a 1 hour meeting some 20 miles away. Do you know how long it took me in all? 5 1/2 hours!
Eddie_T
2 years ago
My favorite restaurants are at boomtown levels……still somewhat short staffed but there are waiters…but don’t expect to be seated anymore without a reservation. That is a noticeable change.
Here’s an anecdote for you. I attended a minor league hockey game last night and a large beer was $13. Transitory? I doubt it.
I added two high dividend oil-and-gas midstream MLP’s to the portfolio. BPH and BPMP. I already had one, CEQP.
For any older high income earners out there (in the US) looking to get some taxes deferred without holding assets in a Roth, these entities have some interesting possibilities…..as the law now stands….not sure about the future.
There are about 80 MLP’s (master limited partnerships) sold on the stock exchanges…..some are cash cows…..and a large part of the pay-out is considered return of principal….which is tax-deferred until you sell……unlike regular dividends. And they are subject to the stepped-up basis rules like real estate….for inheritance. Not financial advice, do your own DD.
I have friends still in Austin who play beer league hockey at that rink. If you are just a casual hockey fan (ie don’t care that much about the game), you could go watch them play and get free beer (I’ll let them know your coming) 🙂
Yes, that’s the place. I think it’s pretty much to go-to place now for ice hockey in Austin (ie not many ice rinks).
When I lived and played there in the early 2000’s I played with the guys I still know out at the Expo center (way out East) where they had rodeos and Chaparral (next to I95 a couple miles just north of downtown). Those are all closed now and the Cedar Park center is the prime location (unless the old Northcross mall mini-rink is still around).
Minor league hockey, much like minor league ball is always fan/family friendly. At least until they started charging $13 for a beer! Definitely don’t do that here in Florida for minor league ball or hockey.
dbannist
2 years ago
Mish, if you want an anecdote that is a little more than an anecdote here’s one:
I manage 73 tenants, some personal some for the company I work for.
A tenant I have, which is a typical tenant is named “Ashley”. She claims to have a disabled daughter. I can neither prove nor disprove that. She gets 17k a year from a federal employment agency called “Team Risk Management”. She gets paid this to take care of her child at home who is disabled. Yup, she gets paid 17k a year to take care of her own child.
IN addition to this she gets 3k a year from the child tax credit. She also gets 3k from the Earned income credit, even though her income is also a federal giveaway.
She also gets completely free Medicaid for her child.
400 a month in food stamps.
Completely free rent.
Why would anyone in her situation work? I get that some parents do indeed need to take care of disabled kids, but she’s getting nearly 50k in federal subsidies. That’s more than many two income earning households get. 50k is probably 2x what a non-working person with one child needs to make it in life in most areas of the USA. Why are we paying people 2x as much as they need for basic necessities?
A few years back I compiled an intensive study of all my tenants and determined that the average income (including government benefits which is most of that income) for the properties I work at was over 40k. These are for the lowest quintile earners in the country.
Are you aware that the HOPE program is now paying 100% of rent for anyone claiming to be affected by COVID for the next 12 MONTHS? This is a recent development and I just received my first HOPE request last week. YOu can only claim 3 months at a time but all you have to do is sign off stating “I’ve been affected by COVID” and that’s it. Who hasn’t been affected by COVID?
I dated a computer science major who attended Mizzou back in the 1990s. Debbie was on this government assistance from food stamps to Medicaid to welfare payments for her and her daughter. She left a good paying job at the Missouri Highway Patrol to go back to school and then had all this federal money and assistance thrown at her. I was always amused she bragged about her grade point average while insulting mine. Of course, I had a job and was working while going to college and not enjoying the American redistribution of wealth schemes from Washington. I wasn’t sucking off the American tax payer. She was perfectly able to work and take care of her child during all this.It was no surprise to me she went and got her a government job upon graduation. All this free stuff was available back then. I have no doubt she claims she is a self-made success these day. LOL
Believe it or not, but government benefits are nearly as generous today as they were back in the 90’s.
So a person who could live a good life back then can live a very nice life today. Food stamps have greatly increased in value, the child tax credit is a huge addition that didn’t exist in the 90’s. Rent help has increased greatly and then there’s Medicaid and the ACA.
It’s never been better to be poor in the USA.
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
“On a last trip to Colorado at the beginning of October the hotel had an automated check-in. Insert your drivers license and a kiosk spits out your keys.
I had trouble because I registered as Mike but my license says “Michael”. “
…
Yet, the roads of America ready NOW for onslaught of autonomous vehicles …
It’s coming and it’s coming quick. I know employers who won’t even schedule for an interview if you don’t call back asking for one once you submit a resume or application. I know a couple too that ask about the “COVID void” and if you don’t give an answer that you were willing to work, the interview is over…Isn’t that the problem with this trade war as well with the false promise it’s about restoring jobs? Those jobs aren’t coming back. They are either leaving China for even cheaper labor and the absence of tariffs to places like Vietnam or they will come back to the States as manufacturing jobs the machines can do. I know there was a recent article where NISSAN has robots now that will completely manufacture a car right up to a robot inspecting the paint job before it leaves the factory.
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
Not just Domino’s.
Note report from August … when extra federal benefits to UE + rent moratorium still in play.
…
Restaurant Performance Index Fell 1.1% in
August
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant
Performance Index (RPI) fell to a 6-month low in August, as
several indicators retreated from their elevated pandemic-disrupted levels. The RPI – a monthly composite index that
tracks the health of the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at
104.2 in August, down 1.1% from a level of 105.4 in July.
…
Restaurant operators’ expectations for business conditions
dipped somewhat from recent months. Fifty-three percent
of operators expect their sales volume in six months to be
higher than it was during the same period in the previous
year, down significantly from 71% who reported similarly
last month.
Pizza is a terrible business to be in. I don’t know how anyone can stay in business selling 2 topping pizzas for $7.99. You surely can’t stay in business paying your drivers $20/hr.
The delivery driver pays their own gas insurance and wear and tear. In some areas because of traffic or distance, 3 deliveries may be optimistic, and maybe for 1 or two hours at peak. What about tips? That depends on how many customers you have and how generous they feel.
shamrock
2 years ago
Paul Ryan’s tax “cut” in 2017 replaced the exemption of $4k per child with a tax credit of $2k. Biden upped that to between $3,000 and $3,600 per child, but with a much lower income eligibility limit. The big difference is that the full amount of the tax credit is refundable, meaning you don’t have to work at all to get the money. So it’s no longer a replacement for the removal of the exemption, it’s a welfare payment. On top of all the other welfare, not as a replacement. Why have aid for families with dependent children AND the tax credit when they are basically the same thing?
StickToEconomics
2 years ago
No more mean tweets! No more mean tweets!!! No more mean tweets!what a bunch of morons.
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Negative cash flow is something anyone can understand. You don’t need an accounting degree for that.
I dated a computer science major who attended Mizzou back in the 1990s. Debbie was on this government assistance from food stamps to Medicaid to welfare payments for her and her daughter. She left a good paying job at the Missouri Highway Patrol to go back to school and then had all this federal money and assistance thrown at her. I was always amused she bragged about her grade point average while insulting mine. Of course, I had a job and was working while going to college and not enjoying the American redistribution of wealth schemes from Washington. I wasn’t sucking off the American tax payer. She was perfectly able to work and take care of her child during all this.It was no surprise to me she went and got her a government job upon graduation. All this free stuff was available back then. I have no doubt she claims she is a self-made success these day. LOL
So a person who could live a good life back then can live a very nice life today. Food stamps have greatly increased in value, the child tax credit is a huge addition that didn’t exist in the 90’s. Rent help has increased greatly and then there’s Medicaid and the ACA.
It’s never been better to be poor in the USA.
“On a last trip to Colorado at the beginning of October the hotel had an automated check-in. Insert your drivers license and a kiosk spits out your keys.
I had trouble because I registered as Mike but my license says “Michael”. “
It’s coming and it’s coming quick. I know employers who won’t even schedule for an interview if you don’t call back asking for one once you submit a resume or application. I know a couple too that ask about the “COVID void” and if you don’t give an answer that you were willing to work, the interview is over…Isn’t that the problem with this trade war as well with the false promise it’s about restoring jobs? Those jobs aren’t coming back. They are either leaving China for even cheaper labor and the absence of tariffs to places like Vietnam or they will come back to the States as manufacturing jobs the machines can do. I know there was a recent article where NISSAN has robots now that will completely manufacture a car right up to a robot inspecting the paint job before it leaves the factory.
August
The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant
Performance Index (RPI) fell to a 6-month low in August, as
several indicators retreated from their elevated pandemic-disrupted levels. The RPI – a monthly composite index that
tracks the health of the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at
104.2 in August, down 1.1% from a level of 105.4 in July.
dipped somewhat from recent months. Fifty-three percent
of operators expect their sales volume in six months to be
higher than it was during the same period in the previous
year, down significantly from 71% who reported similarly
last month.
No more mean tweets! No more mean tweets!!! No more mean tweets!what a bunch of morons.