Some of the flaws of Bitcoin are by now well-understood: It does not scale, it is nearly useless for routine purchases, and its use of energy in mining is problematic in many ways.
Forbes contributor Peter Tchir says You Don’t Have To Hate Bitcoin To Think It Is Overvalued.
I continue to think Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have further to fall and I am unlikely to become bullish until Bitcoin drops below $5,000.
The basic premise is that speculators got way ahead of themselves in terms of the adoption rate. The adoption rate has slowed by every metric I look at, while speculators are still stuck holding onto cryptocurrencies that have declined in value. Virtually every purchase of Bitcoin since the spike higher around U.S. Thanksgiving is now losing money. Those holding cryptocurrencies bought with credit cards are feeling the additional pain of interest payments if they bought using credit (which scares me as a concept as I analyzed here).
While new adopters are happening at a declining rate, the amount of regulatory and tax scrutiny is increasing.
Despite being bearish, I believe that there will be value in some cryptocurrencies, even Bitcoin itself, and some of the ICO’s – which seem to be viewed with a high degree of skepticism right now (justified in many cases).
Which ICO will be worth it? Which crypto should we back? When should I buy Bitcoin? These are all questions that we will continue to try and answer.
For now, I think regardless of the cryptocurrency you are looking at – you will be able to buy it cheaper, significantly cheaper in the near term.
We have gone from FOMO or what I called the Five Stages Of Not Owning Bitcoin Grief to a concern that purchases might have been foolish. While the true “believers” don’t see that, I see it and think the mentality needs to change for Bitcoin to go higher – all markets are driven by emotion at some level and we went from extreme fear of missing out for the average person, to a concern that the naysayers are right.
FOMO In Reverse
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is in reverse.
Unlike Tchir, I do not suggest $5,000 is a good buying point. I did not like Bitcoin at $5,000 on the way up, so why should I (or anyone) like Bitcoin at $5,000 on the way down.
I see much promise in the technology, but that does not make Bitcoin a buy at any price.
Yet, there is no reason to wish for Bitcoin to fail, unless of course you are short crypto.
Bitcoin Surge
The surge of Bitcoin to what I believe are absurd prices is a function of policies of Central Banks.
The reasons put forth by HODLers as to why Bitcoin cannot be a bubble are ridiculous.
Moreover, it’s easy to root against the coin out of jealousy or the incessant ramblings of the true believers who still think Bitcoin is headed to $100,000 or even a $1,000,000.
The mining costs alone suggest those targets are pure silliness.
Free Market Concept
It’s important to understand that Bitcoin is a free-market concept.
That’s the bottom line.
Thus, I won’t root against Bitcoin even though I find the incessant Tweets and price targets of the true believers more than a bit galling.
Where Will Bitcoin Be One Year From Today?
The HODLer cheerleaders who say “Don’t worry about what it’s doing now, look at where it will be in a year,” are also galling.
The statement implies Bitcoin will be higher a year from now. Why will it be? Even if it “should be”, which I strongly disagree with, perhaps it won’t be.
No one knows where Bitcoin is headed. And that’s a fact.
Also it’s pretty easy to tell people to HODL when many who did so intend to dump when the prices rise back up.
Wishes Aren’t Fishes
Galling price-cheerleading aside, as a free-market anti-fiat currency, there is every reason to want Bitcoin to succeed.
But wishes aren’t fishes or the nets would always be full.
Meanwhile, the price keeps ratcheting down. Every recent rally has been sold. Will that change? Perhaps.
Then again, central Banks or governments could easily squash Bitcoin like a bug, if they want to.
I do not agree with such a policy, I merely suggest it’s quite likely at some point.
It is fantasyland material to believe Bitcoin will replace the Dollar, the Pound, the Yen, and the Yuan, and central banks will not stop it.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Call me paranoid, but one potential problem with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is that when they (inevitably) fail, the central bank/big government people will say “See what happens when we let the free market handle something as important as money? See? See? We told you this needed centralized management by really smart people.”
You really should not be that tough on Mish. Just because he has been saying that stocks are in a bubble and the dollar would collapse does not mean his intensions are bad. Afterall, none of the problems that caused the financial crisis have been fixed. Mish just doesn’t understand that the rest of the world is in much worse shape. It should be noted that most of the doom and gloomers are dollar haters and gold bugs.
Since you discount the doom and gloom scenario, I have to ask, do understand exponents? For example, exponential increases in health care costs or budget deficits can appear benignly linear for decades, then all of a sudden they begin to go parabolic. Put 9.3% per year increases for 37 years in your calculator and you will see why health care costs are unsustainable. The same problem will be seen with interest expense on the debt, which is already passing defense spending, and rates have not even started to gap higher, which is coming over the next 18 months. You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.
Your right you know.
You to central banks, “you can’t stop it” Central banks back to you, “hold my beer”.
@Blacklisted
link to s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com
@Realist
link to s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com
“not sure that can be true when everyone in the bond market knows the central banks will do what it takes.”
Anyone currently in govt bonds knows nothing, and if you think CB’s can cover the interest expense tab when rates rise, you likely think the FDIC can cover the losses associated with a financial crisis. The ECB is already buying 40% of member countries debt. Can it go to 100%? When rates rise due to rising default risks, how are the interest payments going to be made? Yes, they will try to take it out of the hides of their citizens, but the civil unrest and reduced growth associated with such actions will only excellerate the death spiral.
The global economy will continue collapsing from the periphery to the core, and when govt’s can’t sell their bonds, rates will spike higher, and global capital will seek the RELATIVE safety of the dollar, which will compound the problem for foreign entities holding too much dollar-based debts, not to mention grinding exports to a halt. This popping of the govt debt bubble will cause a sovereign debt contagion that will force an emergency G20 meeting to reset the system, which will include a new reserve currency, and likely another world war to distract the masses from the true source of the problem – govt largess. This does not require a Mad Max event, but it will at a minimum cause people to find an alternative place to park their money until the dust settles. The Mad Max event depends on how totalitarian govt’s become trying to protect their perks and power.
Individuals can potentially use gold and silver, if they can keep govt from confiscating it. Crypto’s are preferred by the younger generation, plus they can be transported across boarders (not so much with gold), and they facilitate barter, which will be helpful when supply chains seize up when the debt-based system implodes. Since the PM market is not big enough to absorb the $80 trillion in global investments, most smart money will park in blue chip stocks in the owners name (not Street Name like most investors), which has been the primary driver behind the rise of stocks for years. Sorry, it’s not the Fed, buybacks, techicals or fundamentals.
What I will say is, if we’re looking at the worst case scenario on the horizon: that the visa-mastercard commercial bank network disbands, unemployment rises severely, and the nation splits apart in various secessionary movements, then you better believe that the black economy will boom like a bomb, and cryptocurrency will be a major beneficiary of that process.
Anything less than our worst case scenario, and the situation for cryptocurrency may not change that much from where it is now.
@Blacklisted “a sovereign debt crisis is right around the corner” not sure that can be true when everyone in the bond market knows the central banks will do what it takes. What we have on our hands imminently is a crisis of deflation, which is a debt crisis of sorts, and that will be followed, possibly, it’s a big unknown: a crisis of inflation. What else does a central bank do with deflation at 0% interest rates?
blah blah blah monero blah blah the darknet blah long term blah blah blah
You know that Bitcoin is not the end-all for crypto’s or blockchain technology, and you know that when people generalize, using Bitcoin as the moniker for the space, they know the technology is rapidly evolving and being studied for adoption by more enterprises almost daily. Yet, you only focus on Bitcoin. Why? When discussing the Internet and search engines, why don’t you focus on Archie, Infoseek, WebCrawler, Lycos, AltaVista, or Netscape?
You are right – I don’t know when a better solution will replace Bitcoin; or Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, EOS, Stellar, NEO, Monero, Dash, etc., but I do know the value provided by blockchain, cryptography, and a distribute ledger is being increasing understood by more organizations, including govt’s around the world. The Genie is well out of the bottle, and NO central bank can stop it, just as they cannot stop rates from rising or reduce the interest expense that is getting ready to implode govt’s around the world.
Being massively uniformed does not mean there is a Russian conspiracy to elect Trump, Assad gassing his own people, Iraq having WMD’s, QE’s will cause the dollar to crash and gold to rise, and it certainly doesn’t mean enterprises will ignore the significant value offered by cryptocurrencies (even Bitcoin).
The HODLers and others understand that a sovereign debt crisis is right around the corner, and as the debt bubble pops and Socialism collapses, govt’s will get increasing desperate to confiscate other people’s money – including the wealth sitting in bank accounts, 401K’s, and IRA’s. The HODLers believe the banksters and fraudsters in the establishment have had their chance, and they blew it spectacularly. Why not give a distributed network of software programmers a chance? They pretty much control everything we use now anyway – why not the monetary system? God knows, they couldn’t do worse. BTW, Govt’s and CB’s cannot stop visible illegal drug use, how do you think they will stop bits flying invisibly around the world? Force may work in parts of the world where citizens are not armed, but it will not work here…and why would anyone want govt force to prevail?
“Yet, there is no reason to wish for Bitcoin to fail, unless of course you are short crypto.” Yes there is a reason: I want to buy a new video card and I’m not going to overpay. Bitcoin failure would crash the GPU market, especially for 2nd hand ones!
very long day for me today: up at 4:45 am. was briefly at the hotel mid-afternoon and just got back from a Canyonlands sunset shot. Headed back out at 1:00AM for night images
You should really get past this btc price crap. Cardano for the win!
Dust bin