Here's the joke of the day: Stock Market Turns the Corner as Most Risks are Already Priced In.

By now, investors priced in all the bad things they could price in: concerns about trade wars, geopolitics, rising rates and even fears that earnings growth peaked. But the economy is still growing and earnings are expected to grow by double digits this year and next,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist at Voya Financial.

“We must keep in mind that the first-quarter earnings have been boosted a lot by a one-time tax windfall. But second-quarter earnings are expected to grow by another 20% even without the windfall but as the underlying corporate tax cuts start to kick in,” Cavanaugh added.

Not Priced In


  1. Insane valuations
  2. Mideast war
  3. China slowdown
  4. Eurozone slowdown
  5. Change in attitudes towards stocks

Of those, number 1 and number 5 are standouts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Everything Is Awesome!

The market is pricing in a lot of “Everything is Awesome”. Reader Jason Leach, CFA, asks “Is all this awesomeness, real or fantasy? Has it been pulled forward?”

Elizabeth Warren Has a Bad Plan for Everything

Elizabeth Warren wants to steer the US to the Left, radical Left.

Reader "Worried about Inflation, Deflation, Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Everything"

A recently retired reader friend is worried about, inflation, deflation, bonds, stocks, banks, and gold.

Don’t Worry Weakness is Transitory: Fed Expects a Second Quarter Rebound, Higher Equity Prices

The word of the day is transitory. That’s my take on the release of the March 14-15 FOMC Minutes.

Another Half-Point Fed Cut Priced In

The market expects another half-point cut on March 18 and so do I.

Bubble Talk: Is the Good All Priced In?

Here are some interesting Tweets about stimulus, money, vaccines, and stock market valuations.

Don’t Worry: “It’s Only 1997” Besides “It’s Different This Time”

Two articles in the last two days, one on Bloomberg, the other on the Wall Street Journal, provided key reasons we should not worry about stock market bubbles. 1. It’s only 1997 (P/E valuations have not exceeded the dot-com bubble in 2000 yet) 2.It’s different this time (always a classic argument)

Equity Valuations, an Everything Bubble and “Policy Trumpacho”

The S&P is up 8% since the election. Volatility has been squashed.

Law of Bad Ideas

A proposal by French president Francois Hollande got me thinking about “The Law of Bad Ideas“.