The above chart is from CME Fedwatch.

December 11, 2019 FOMC Rate Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 18.2%
  • 1 Cut: 39.5%
  • 2 Cuts: 30.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 10.2%
  • 4 Cuts: 1.5%
  • 5 Cuts: 0.1%

The odds of at least one cut are 81.8%

September 18, 2019 Fedwatch

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September 18, 2019 FOMC Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 45.1%
  • 1 Cut: 43.7%
  • 2 Cuts: 10.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 0.7%

The odds of at least one cut are 54.9%

Unfortunately, I failed to capture CME Fedwatch odds following the December 19, "autopilot" meeting, but I did comment on the dot plot of Fed expectations.

Flashback December 19, 2018 Fed Hikes as Expected

Let's take a peek at my comments on December 19, 2018, in Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly.

Dot Plot December 19, 2018

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December 2018 Fed Governor Projections

  • Cut Votes: 0
  • No Change: 2
  • One Hike: 4
  • Two Hikes: 5
  • Three Hikes: 6

What a hoot.

September is even more amusing.

September 2018 Fed Governor Projections

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Every step of the way the Fed overestimated the strength of the economy and its resolve to hike.

March 20, 2019 Dot Plot

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Even in March, not a single Fed governor anticipated any cuts this year.

The Fed next meets on June 18-19.

That dot plot is sure to continue the amusement.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock