The above chart is from CME Fedwatch.
December 11, 2019 FOMC Rate Odds on 2019-05-29
- Hikes 0%
- No Change: 18.2%
- 1 Cut: 39.5%
- 2 Cuts: 30.5%
- 3 Cuts: 10.2%
- 4 Cuts: 1.5%
- 5 Cuts: 0.1%
The odds of at least one cut are 81.8%
September 18, 2019 Fedwatch
September 18, 2019 FOMC Odds on 2019-05-29
- Hikes 0%
- No Change: 45.1%
- 1 Cut: 43.7%
- 2 Cuts: 10.5%
- 3 Cuts: 0.7%
The odds of at least one cut are 54.9%
Unfortunately, I failed to capture CME Fedwatch odds following the December 19, “autopilot” meeting, but I did comment on the dot plot of Fed expectations.
Flashback December 19, 2018 Fed Hikes as Expected
Let’s take a peek at my comments on December 19, 2018, in Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly.
Dot Plot December 19, 2018
December 2018 Fed Governor Projections
- Cut Votes: 0
- No Change: 2
- One Hike: 4
- Two Hikes: 5
- Three Hikes: 6
What a hoot.
September is even more amusing.
September 2018 Fed Governor Projections
Every step of the way the Fed overestimated the strength of the economy and its resolve to hike.
March 20, 2019 Dot Plot
Even in March, not a single Fed governor anticipated any cuts this year.
The Fed next meets on June 18-19.
That dot plot is sure to continue the amusement.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
3T on the balance sheet and set to increase to 10T by the mid 2020s.
These charlatans are well on their way to completely destroying the currency.
God only knows what horrors await the masses that are for now, blissfully ignorant.
Hopefully, at some point in the not too distant future, there will be Peoples Tribunals, where these criminals will be held to account.
Destroying the currency? The USD grows stronger by the day so the market believes that day is a long way off.
“stronger by the day”? I take it you do not trade Forex. USD/JPY is at 109 and in 2015 it peaked at 124. Not to say it is being decimated but the comment is not accurate. Also see USD/CHF. Do not just assume the Euro’s devaluation means the US dollar is strong, we need to ask which currency it is being compared to. Even with gold, the dollar has been in a holding pattern for several years and may be close to an intermediate term move up (gold compared to USD).
….yeah sure, with hindsight one can indeed recommend you trust the markets….for a while and then all of a sudden everyone starts runnig for the exits ! It s always been like that won t be any different this time, some will get rich and a vast mayority will lose their pants …
“stronger by the day” only when measured against other Ponzi-fiat “currencies”. The Fed has already destroyed 97 PERCENT of the Dollars 1913 purchasing power and by their own admission (missed inflation targets), can’t destroy that last three percent fast enough.
“That dot plot is sure to continue the amusement.”
Yes, number 3 looks like a bell. It is amusing.
Fed finally realizing it cannot (covertly)print enough cash to prop up well…..everything!It has to deploy QE 4 on a massive scale along with immediate NIRP that’s the only legit way you can get away with printing tens of trillions and continue to buy well ….everything and not detonate the dollar…….yet!