The above chart is from CME Fedwatch.

December 11, 2019 FOMC Rate Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 18.2%
  • 1 Cut: 39.5%
  • 2 Cuts: 30.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 10.2%
  • 4 Cuts: 1.5%
  • 5 Cuts: 0.1%

The odds of at least one cut are 81.8%

September 18, 2019 Fedwatch

Image placeholder title

September 18, 2019 FOMC Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 45.1%
  • 1 Cut: 43.7%
  • 2 Cuts: 10.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 0.7%

The odds of at least one cut are 54.9%

Unfortunately, I failed to capture CME Fedwatch odds following the December 19, "autopilot" meeting, but I did comment on the dot plot of Fed expectations.

Flashback December 19, 2018 Fed Hikes as Expected

Let's take a peek at my comments on December 19, 2018, in Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly.

Dot Plot December 19, 2018


Image placeholder title

December 2018 Fed Governor Projections

  • Cut Votes: 0
  • No Change: 2
  • One Hike: 4
  • Two Hikes: 5
  • Three Hikes: 6

What a hoot.

September is even more amusing.

September 2018 Fed Governor Projections

Image placeholder title

Every step of the way the Fed overestimated the strength of the economy and its resolve to hike.

March 20, 2019 Dot Plot

Image placeholder title

Even in March, not a single Fed governor anticipated any cuts this year.

The Fed next meets on June 18-19.

That dot plot is sure to continue the amusement.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged as Expected, Dot Plot of Future Policy Splits

The dot plot of future expectations has split into two camps: Those who expect the status quo and those who see cuts.

Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly

The Fed did little this month but babble the same story about strong jobs and its dual mandate. Expectations did change.

Dot Plot Shows 3 Hikes in 2018: Fade the Consensus

The Fed hiked 1/4 point with no unexpected discussion. A Dot plot shows Fed participants believe 3 more hikes are coming

Fed Cuts Rates 1/4 Percent, Three Dissents: Dot Plot Suggests No More 2019 Cuts

The Fed cut interest rates 25 basis point to a target of 1.75% to 2.00%. There were three dissents.

Powell Is Concerned About Dots

In Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, he displayed a huge concern over the dot plot, an estimation of future rate hikes.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher on Fed Dot Plot Projections

How many hikes can the Fed get in this year? The Fed estimate is two more. Mortgage rates rose on the news.

Dot Plot Fantasyland Projections

The Economic projections made at today's FOMC meeting are straight from Fantasyland

Interesting Rate Hike Odds: March favors Hikes, December Favors Cuts

Fed fund futures show a hike in March is more likely than a cut. In December, the opposite is true.

2019 Rate "Cuts" in Play

The market still expects the Fed to hike on Wednesday, but even the 3-Month yield is lower. Let's look ahead to 2019.