The full text if the [FOMC Statement](Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement) for December shows the committee unanimously approved a 1/4 percentage point increase in the Fed Funds rate to a range of 1.25% to 1.50%.

Interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.50 percent, effective December 14, 2017.

The statement contained the usual meaningless blather about employment, price stability, and inflation that has been running below target.

The Dot Plot, a survey of interest rate expectations, shows an expectation the Fed will hike to a range of 2.00% to 2.25% in 2018.


I suggest fading the consensus. The yield curve is already close to flat, and with three more hikes it would likely invert. We are closer to the end of these rate hikes than the beginning.

Cartoon of the Day

The 3% and above predictions in the years ahead are a pipe dream. The Trump tax cuts, if they happen, will not spur growth.

The next major move in rates is lower.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Fed Hikes 1/4 Point as Expected: Dot Plot Indicates One More 2018 Hike Coming

In its FOMC statement, the Fed says the economy continues to strengthen, unemployment is low, and spending is strong.

Dot Plot Fantasyland Flashback vs Current Rate Cut Expectations

In December, Powell said the Fed was on "autopilot". Let's compare those dot plots with current Fed Fund Futures.

Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly

The Fed did little this month but babble the same story about strong jobs and its dual mandate. Expectations did change.

Fed Pledges "Patience", Dot Plot Suggests No Hikes in 2019

Today the Fed pledged patience and a majority of officials signaled they might not raise the rate at all this year.

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged as Expected, Dot Plot of Future Policy Splits

The dot plot of future expectations has split into two camps: Those who expect the status quo and those who see cuts.

Market Gives Finger Formation to Fed's Dot Plot Take

The Median Fed projection at the Dec FOMC meeting was 2 more hikes in 2019. In September it was 3. Hikes now priced out.

Mortgage Rates Move Higher on Fed Dot Plot Projections

How many hikes can the Fed get in this year? The Fed estimate is two more. Mortgage rates rose on the news.

Fed Hikes With One Dissent: Fed Behind the Curve?

As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates 25 basis points to a range of 3/4 to 1 percent.

Powell Is Concerned About Dots

In Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, he displayed a huge concern over the dot plot, an estimation of future rate hikes.