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I was laughing yesterday at this Bloomberg projection via the Daily Shot.​

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I am not sure where Bloomberg got that number from as CME Fedwatch had a 95% probability of a quarter-point hike.​

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Forget the outcome, either Bloomberg or CME was wrong on their percentages.

Dot Plot Fantasyland

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For the rest of the year, FOMC members are roughly split between two more hikes and three more hikes. However, two participants think the Fed is done hiking.

Refreshing

Both Danielle DiMartino and John Hussman found Powell's first press conference refreshing, DiMartino for the stock market, and Hussman because the Phillips Curve.

The third Tweet above is where the rubber meets the road. What happens if the stock market falters?

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Lovey Dovey

Despite the lack of hawkishness, the equity markets closed lower.

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Dovefest

Gold had a very different reaction to the dovefest.

One day is meaningless, but if stocks stop going up on dovish Fed announcements, look out below for equities.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock