I was laughing yesterday at this Bloomberg projection via the Daily Shot.​

Image placeholder title

I am not sure where Bloomberg got that number from as CME Fedwatch had a 95% probability of a quarter-point hike.​

Image placeholder title

Forget the outcome, either Bloomberg or CME was wrong on their percentages.

Dot Plot Fantasyland

Image placeholder title

For the rest of the year, FOMC members are roughly split between two more hikes and three more hikes. However, two participants think the Fed is done hiking.


Both Danielle DiMartino and John Hussman found Powell's first press conference refreshing, DiMartino for the stock market, and Hussman because the Phillips Curve.

The third Tweet above is where the rubber meets the road. What happens if the stock market falters?


Lovey Dovey

Despite the lack of hawkishness, the equity markets closed lower.

Image placeholder title

Dow 15-Minute Chart

Image placeholder title


Image placeholder title


Gold had a very different reaction to the dovefest.

One day is meaningless, but if stocks stop going up on dovish Fed announcements, look out below for equities.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Slowly Hiking Into a Recession

The Fed is expected to hike on Dec 18 and perhaps in Mar 2019. The rise in the 3-month yield reflects that expectation.

Huge Mistake Coming Up: Trump Set to Promote Trade Hawk Peter Navarro

At one point it appeared Trump was ready to cast aside Navarro. The situation reversed and it's a huge mistake.

Powell Is Concerned About Dots

In Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, he displayed a huge concern over the dot plot, an estimation of future rate hikes.

Trump Discusses Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Can He? Sure!

Trump is extremely displeased with Powell's rate hikes. Trump has asked advisors if he can fire Powell. Watch out.

Lovey-Dovey Interpretation of Powell Speech Sends Stocks Flying

Jerome Powell said interest rates are "just below" neutral. The market reacted as if the Fed is nearly done hiking.

There Are No Hawks on the Fed, Only Ostriches

The Fed cannot spot inflation. Can you?

Spotlight on Powell's Definition of "Just Below Neutral"

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that interest rates are "just below neutral". That's quite a position.

ECB's Counterproductive QE: Whatever It Takes Morphs Into "As Long As It Takes"

The ECB cut interest rates 10 basis points to -0.50% and promised more QE. Trump is howling.

QE Debate: What Did Powell Mean by "Need to Resume Balance Sheet Growth"?

Some interpreted Powell's statement to mean more QE. There's a strong clue Powell meant something else. OK, but ....