Not Yet, When?
Dr. Facuci says Vaccinated People Shouldn’t Dine Indoors or Go to the Theater Quite Yet.
“There are things, even if you’re vaccinated, that you’re not going to be able to do in society,” Fauci said on Monday during a White House COVID-19 press briefing. “For example, indoor dining, theaters, places where people congregate. That’s because of the safety of society.”
Though vaccines can help prevent people from contracting severe cases of COVID-19, the jabs may not stop them from getting sick altogether. It’s also still unclear whether vaccinated people can be disease carriers, meaning they might spread illness to unvaccinated people in a community where vaccination is far from universal, prolonging the pandemic.
“We hope that when the data comes in, it’s going to show that the virus level is quite low and you’re not transmitting it,” Fauci said, cautioning: “We don’t know that now. And for that reason, we want to make sure that people continue to wear masks despite the fact that they’re vaccinated.” Early signs are looking promising that vaccinated people may not spread the virus well, but it’s still too soon to say for sure.
I understand wearing masks. I understand avoiding groups and parties. But enough already.
Double masking and telling people not to eat out even after they have been vaccinated is too much to take.
The teachers’ unions will pick up on this and play it for all it’s worth.
Addendum
I was asked about my brief teachers’ union comment above. I will explain in detail in just a bit in another post.
Meanwhile, please note Fauci falls silent following New York nursing home scandal after repeatedly praising Cuomo response.
Mish
2,877,000 MILLION People Die in the USA every YEAR!!!
That 2,877,000 number is from 2019 or 2020 CDC SITE Check it out!
THAT’S 7,882 thousand US Citizens Die EVERY DAY!!!
SINCE we are keeping Dr Fauci ‘s (AKA DR FAUSTUS)
Score on DEATHS!!
That’s 328 people in the US Die EVERY Hour
Or 5 people in the USA EVERY Minute.
89% Percent of people that WEAR MASKS in PUBLIC Still Catch Covid-19!!!!
650,000 of those death are from Heart Disease from a Obese over weight US population!
WHERE are all the MASKS to stop people from over eating???
COVID-19 has about Another 100,000 Deaths to catch up to heart disease.
Last year in 2020 heart disease was double the Covid-19 deaths!
Next cause of death is Cancer 600,000 a year.
Roughly 75,000 people knock themselves off every year.
ONLY! Leftists
AND!!!
“IVE BEEN A HIDEN TILL AFTER THE ELECTION” Biden !!
DR. Fauci “Faustus”
AND! People WHO think they are Smart!
Think they can stop NATURE!
I think it is criminal that Fauci et al are not recommending prophylactic use of vitamins D and C especially and fighting the use of Ivermectin. Per Dr. Pierre Kory, Ivermectin has been shown to prevent binding of the spike protein to the H2 receptor, therefore, preventing it from entering the cell, so it is a blocker. It also seems to slow viral replication. So, waiting until the patient is sick is too late.
Dr Been (you has a daily you tube video on Covid) and Dr Kory
The majority of assinine comments bereft of any critical thinking in this thread serve to reinforce my decision to get out of nursing for something less risky to MY health….truck driving. When you’re sitting in the ER wondering when you’re going to the OR to have your appendix/gall bladder out or your wife needs an emergency c-section…remember this thread…
Mish- just finding out that Fauci has lied publicly or that he appears to work for the Great Reset.
Sad that so many believe the scum bag
I’m not sure what you don’t get about it. We’re in a pandemic that is threatening to continue because of assumptions about the vaccines. Outside of the AstraZeneca, they are not vaccines. That is because they do not prevent transmission of covid. While I’m not a fan of Dr. Fauci, I agree with him and he does often state enough of the truth about the “vaccines”, so-called as to appeal to a target audience.
60,000,000 people caught H1n1 Virus in 2009, I was one.
No masks then why??
Obama, a Democrat socialist in the White House???
98.6% of people under the age of 70 recover from Covid-19 look it up!
I Think it’s 96% and change over the age of 70 recover. Can not remember exact percentage.
Media sure has indoctrinated quite a few people, why doesn’t the media show snippets of ALL the Chinese people running around with masks on???
Because the Chinese people don’t!!
Only the western nations governments are the fear mongers about Covid-19!!
It’s about control silly, they love it when you do what you are told,!
Especially when they give no real facts!
There is no credibility left with Dr. Fauci or mainstream media. The flip flops are as endless as the moving goal posts, and political smears. “It’s contained.” “Closing borders and protecting citizens is racist.” “Masks don’t work.” “Wear a mask.” “Wear two masks.” “Two weeks.” “Three weeks to flatten the curve.” “Anti-virals don’t work.” “Don’t focus on anti-virals; you must get the vaccine!”
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”
Carl Sagan
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”
Carl Sagan
The goalposts are only moved because of vaccine skeptics.
Skepticism of a supposed vaccine developed in less than a years time IS NOT ALLOWED. You MUST accept & comply!
Feb 22, 2021
Synthetic mRNA Covid vaccines: A Risk-Benefit Analysis With a “vaccine” based on untested technology, and safety trials still ongoing, is it safe to take the shot? And does it even work? And does a disease with an IFR of 0.2% even justify that risk?
Sadaf Gilani
It’s not often that a disease with an IFR of 0.2% kills 2.2% of the people diagnosed with it, yet Covid has killed 2,534,475 with only 114,263,669 cases.
2.5 million deaths out of a world population of 7.5 BILLION is less than a rounding error. And that assumes that the total death count is all from actual Covid sufferers.
You personify the old dog adage, unable to learn anything new, tricks or otherwise.
He isn’t moving the goalposts. Did Fauci ever say that this would end as soon as people started getting vaccinated ? No he didn’t. In every public statement I’ve seen he’s always maintained they have to look at the data of how effective the vaccine is and how.
“We hope that when the data comes in, it’s going to show that the virus level is quite low and you’re not transmitting it,” Fauci said, cautioning: “We don’t know that now. And for that reason, we want to make sure that people continue to wear masks despite the fact that they’re vaccinated.” Early signs are looking promising that vaccinated people may not spread the virus well, but it’s still too soon to say for sure.
Here’s a NYT letter regarding your idol where the write John Smitson is replying to a Matthew Miller who called Fauci “legendary”. [LOL]
John Smithson
California
But he did quickly climb the bureaucratic ladder to be Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), where he has stayed for the last 36 years. That’s the stuff of legend.
Tony Fauci is said to get the highest salary of anyone in the federal government (higher than the president), and has (reportedly) accumulated a net worth more than $10 million. He is a consummate politician with many political contacts who he cultivates.
Not to say that Tony Fauci is a fraud or incompetent. Far from it. He is a gifted professional and at 79 years old can still do his job. But he is at the end of his career and his insights into the Covid-19 virus crisis have not been particularly insightful.
Yet just like Bob Mueller before him, Tony Fauci is being lauded as having superpowers, when in reality he has little to contribute. Odd how we always seem to make these Clark Kents into Supermen.
The REAL experts are the ones who are actually successfully treating Covid – and worldwide there are more and more of them. Even in the US.
The way out of the pandemic is a combination of early treatment, rapid antigen home testing and vaccines.
Used in combination, the pandemic will be done by spring. Sadly, Fauci cannot or will not endorse anything sensible at all. Too many competing agendas and as usual … money tends to win against reason.
Why I Believe that Covid Derangement Syndrome Is Real
Donald J. Boudreaux
– February 23, 2021
Over the past two weeks I’ve received emails urging me to tamp down my criticism of restrictions imposed in the name of fighting Covid-19. Most of the correspondents are polite, sincere, and even warm. Each, however, is convinced that I underestimate the threat that Covid poses to humanity. Each correspondent hopes that I come to take this threat much more seriously.
What follows here is part of my response to each of these correspondents. This essay isn’t meant to change their minds but, instead, to better explain why I hold the position that I do toward Covid, as well as toward the public’s and governments’ responses to Covid. For the record, I understand that different individuals have different risk preferences. I genuinely respect these differences.
From a well respected medical journal that specialized in epidemiology..not.
Expert Is a Four-letter Word
By Marilyn M. Singleton MD, JD – https://marilynsingletonmdjd.com
The Earth is flat and the sun revolves around the Earth. Settled science.
Liberal icon Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes legitimized the science of eugenics when he ruled that the interest of “public welfare” outweighed the interest of individuals in their bodily integrity. Science intersects with public policy.
Scientific journals have published at least 75,000 peer-reviewed papers since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic started. Some studies had significant design flaws, and many results are contradictory. Nonetheless, experts have stolen our lives, stolen the smiles from children’s faces, and bullied a segment of the population into paralyzing fear. Why? Because someone, somewhere was “following the science.” Which science? Only the science that comports with a particular political agenda?
…
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET
If we followed the Doctor we would be wearing a mask for the rest of our lives.
OMG,
Your readers have turned into virtue signaling fear mongers.
There are people in epidemiology that complete disagree with your shaming.
Mish is right. If anything, I disagree with his being ok with any restrictions at all. If you are so closed minded as to not see the pain and destruction the response has caused, then you are antithetical to your own virtue signaling.
The basic tenant of human life is to not harm others.
This entire pandemic response has caused irreversible damage psychologically, financially and in so many other ways affecting health outside of the virus itself that it has become self evident.
Fear, Fear, fear.
Always be afraid. And you will always bend the knee to the experts, the priest class, the masters.
It’s ridiculous. This is an economic blog, and has been consistent since the days on the Art Bell show.
Realist point to what goalposts I have moved? I would like to know.
When did I give a timeline on gold, on a stock market crash, or on a currency crisis? If I did it was a mistake but I do not think you can find one.
And unlike Fauci, nor do I believe you can find me changing my tune on any of that as time progressed.
If you cannot provide evidence of the above, then I expect an apology.
If the older and vulnerable are vaccinated by spring, there is little reason to justify maintaining such severe public restrictions until everybody gets vaccinated, a process that could spill into the fall or later. By taking 50 million of the most vulnerable people out of the equation, the fatality rate will plunge, and the virus will start to resemble the seasonal flu in its effects, which we routinely endure without shutdowns.
Cases are rebounding. In fact, even if the cases low. It means cases are lower than 250 K still put the case near the Summer 2020, surge. thus, it is not getting better.
According to a wrong winger, in the WSJ , the cases should disappear by April…we will see.
Cases are not real “cases”. PCR tests cycled too high find dead virus remnants. Dead remnants ar enot infectious but yet someone who has them is counted as a “positive case” thus escalating the number of cases significantly.
Posting about something you don’t understand isn’t helpful.
it looks like you are projecting. Fauci and the medical establishment have been correct. the trouble is that the wrong wingers failed to take heed of their advice.
Fauci tried to advise the us govt and the Trump mal-administration failed to take it, and now they blame Fauci. that is rich
Manaus brazil went for herd immunity. Killed 5 percent of population. With. Est 70 percent infected. In second wave and is just as deadly as first. My take were on the back side of a wave and as immunity drops in 6 mos or so it will be back. Build on winter school holiday travel etc.
with that being said i think he is just stressing caution. There is a good chunk of population not vaccinated yet and if everyone gets in. The its over mind state we will see a spike.
Being that the US has just started funding to sequence .4 % of the covid cases a few weeks ago at the direction of the Biden administration its best to be cautious, there is a risk of one last viscous spike from a newer variant(s). Here in LA our morgues, mortuaries, and temp dead body storage facilities are still packed, will take another month to work thru the backlog of dead people from the December – January wave here. While I’m not a Dr Fauci fan he may very well be right about another big spike in cases/deaths in the March-May time frame. In the past few days the case curve is showing signs of reversing direction. I also think it is foolish to not do what the UK did and just give everyone 1 jab of the vaccine. 92% effectiveness is good enough for now.
Keep an eye on the obituaries. Should be plenty of good estate sales coming up!
Is Fauci moving the goal posts o is the virus? With the virus mutating itsa new ballgame eveyone is dealing with
There are plenty of studies that show masks do NOT work, just like lockdowns do NOT work.
As previously noted, you obviously do NOT know the agenda. The jab, masks, social distancing, etc are ruses to placate the masses, and kick hope and confidence down the road (LT rates are telling you the story – confidence is fading fast, just like with Carter).
THE GOAL POSTS HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM THE BEGINNING. THERE WILL BE ROLLING LOCKDOWNS, RESTRICTIONS, & TOTALITARIANISM UNTIL THE SHEEPLE FIGHT BACK.
Marxism around the world is collapsing in front of your eyes, and the establishment will do ANY THING to retain power, which will result in global capital continuing to flee public assets (i.e. govt bonds) for private. The pace is about to pick up in stunning fashion.
Some things, like prison, is worse than death. “Give me liberty or give me death!”
So… wearing a mask is worse than death?
I don’t feel free enough this morning… I wonder if it’s time to liberate and defenestrate my pants. Pants are the yoke of our oppressors! DOWN WITH PANTS!
It’s not just about wearing masks, it’s also confining folks to their homes. Why not just telling everyone if they’re not willing to take a chance, stay home, and let everyone else take their chances. We could get killed driving a car, but we choose to take the chance every time we get in one.
I recommend not wearing pants in your house. It’s fun.
Pants? I’ve never seen a sign that said “No Pants, no service”, but I have seen “No shirts, No shoes, no service”. I guess going without pants is fine, so long as you wear shirts and shoes.
I haven’t seen any doors that are nailed or welded shut in the US…
People need to hang out together like at a bar or a concert.
My gym has been forced closed for the past 3 months.
I’ll wear 2 masks the day I see Dr Quack recommend wearing 2 condoms. LOL.
The longer things go on, the more it’s about control. Governments everywhere have noticed they are fully controlling everyones lives now and they like it (docile population). Hence there the goal posts forever move to keep that control. It’s standard crisis procedure to seize control and not release it (hence why we still have the Patriot act despite zero terrorist incidents in decades now). Until people wake up and start outright disobeying and marching this covid crisis will never ever end.
Vaccines are just the last carrot to dangle in front of people with the idea of things going back to normal. If you are under age 60 the survival rate is 99.9% or so. That means only 1 person in a 1000 really needs the vaccine and only the over 60 crowd really needs it. You can bet in 4 months or so when we are mostly vaxxed and clamoring for things to be normal they will claim that the vax only lasts 6 months and we need another round so things have to stay closed till we can constantly vax. LOL.
Florida is wide open. California is not. Our cases are essentially identical theirs in terms of % of population affected/dead. Lockdowns don’t really help much.
…Lockdowns don’t really help much….
Really?
They are the only thing that has brought down cases significantly all around the world in a wide variety of countries.
By hey, an anonymous poster by the name of TexasTim65 overturns it all with mere words..
“…Lockdowns don’t really help much….
Really?
They are the only thing that has brought down cases significantly all around the world in a wide variety of countries.”
There has been no statistically significant difference between California and Florida from the point Florida opened up and CA had a second lockdown.
Italy’s lockdown didn’t prevent a surge in cases in the fall of 2020. Cases were just pushed forward in time, as herd immunity was suppressed.
” If you are under age 60 the survival rate is 99.9% or so. That means only 1 person in a 1000 really needs the vaccine and only the over 60 crowd really needs it.”
I think this is demonstrably wrong, unfortunately. I wish it were true.
That isn’t how vaccines work, We need everybody to take it…it will work MUCH better to get the numbers down if we get better than 90% compliance
…and more importantly to keep the spread down over time….. than if only the most vulnerable take it.
Not everyone necessarily will derive a lot of personal benefit….the benefit is to mankind….hopefully those who feel it is not a great threat to them….personally…can at least see that it matters that they “take one for the team”. The risk is minuscule.
And yes……a few people will have an allergic reaction or some other (unknown as of now) problem…..a few might die. This is really no different than any other vaccine…like smallpox or measles or polio….public health measures require a lot of people to take a very, very small risk….or everybody has MORE risk.
99% survival rate….that also neglects to address morbidity, which can be nearly as big a deal as mortality. A lot of COVID survivors have long term negative health consequences…..I think that will turn out to be considerably above 1% of people infected, regardless of age. In time we will know.
I think I read one in 5 that were in the ICU due to Covid die within 6 months
With SARS (the original one), survivors continued to have a higher than normal death rate for at least ten years after recovering.
You are trying to make an example of an illness that had a grand total of 8,098 worldwide infections? Seriously? [LOL]
The SARS outbreak of 2003
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died. In the United States, only eight people had laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV infection. All of these people had traveled to other parts of the world where SARS was spreading. SARS did not spread more widely in the community in the United States.
SARS is the best example we have of what the longer term effects of SARS-COV2 might be. Yes, the death rate was 5x higher, but the diseases are close relatives, sharing many genes in common.
Hindsight is not prescience. Lockdowns were the only tool we had. We had no knowledge of this virus’ characteristics or pathology. We were completely in the dark. We didn’t know if it would become something that kills 10% of the population or not. You look at it as a bad cold. A virologist would look at it as a sudden unknown pathogen that is highly contagious and kills people in ways that we can’t prevent. You don’t realise that we, the Human Race, lucked out on this one. In the past viral maladies have suddenly appeared, killed 10% of the population in a few weeks and then disappeared. It could have been one of those and without a vaccine or treatment it could still be. If you don’t take the vaccine then you are a potential candidate for the Darwin Reward.
“We had no knowledge of this virus’ characteristics or pathology. We were completely in the dark.”
Wrong. This is a variant of coronavirus which have been known and studied for over 100 years.
Perhaps you missed the message of the world authority Swedish epidemiologist(forget his name now) in early 2020 who explained very clearly what to expect from this virus. His message was simple: take care of the old and vulnerable and let the rest of society get on with life. Sweden largely followed that advice. His predictions, made from a lifetime of experience with viruses and coronaviruses, has been 100% accurate.
Johan Giesecke – the Swedish epidemiologist who is a world authority on such viruses.
As expected, since his views, although scientifically undisputed, didn’t line up with media and critics he has been sidelined in the media.
Most guys here are suffering from Covid Derangement Syndrome.
As for 99.9%, it’s true. That’s the survival rate for under 60. You can find those numbers anywhere. Even over 60’s it’s something like 95-99 depending on exactly how old you are.
Lockdowns are only about control now, not about flattening the curve or awaiting a vax. They are never going to successfully eradicate this thing. You can vax every 6-12 months (like the regular flu) as many people as you want and it will still be here just like the flu, only slightly mutated. Let’s let people get on with their lives.
I have little to no faith in Fauci or scientists in general when it comes to COVID. Too many statements that make no sense and decisions driven more by politics than science. I’ll stick to using my own good old common sense over their suggestions.
Fauci has the luxury of only considering the impacts of the virus on health, and completely disregarding the effect on the economy, politics, etc.
The knowledge evolves every day….
What we know about the ‘California coronavirus’…A new strain of the coronavirus, first detected in California, may be the most virulent and deadly form of COVID-19 yet. And it’s spreading internationally….
They looked at publicly available data from two clusters or lineages of COVID-19 — known as clades — and found what they call “a relatively novel strain,” CAL.20C.
That strain is itself “defined by five concurrent mutations.”
While other novel strains of COVID-19, such as the UK variant, B.1.1.7, have been globally significant for increased infection rates, the researchers write that “there are still no reported strains to account for the spike of cases in Los Angeles and California as a whole, which currently has some of the highest absolute and per-capita COVID transmission rates in the country.”…
…L452R is a mutation in the virus’ spike protein (sometimes known as the “S” protein).
A spike protein is what allows a virus to infect a human cell.
It appears that the new mutation allows the spike protein to attach more easily to a “viral receptor” on the human cell. The receptor is often described as the gateway or entry point through which a virus gets into a cell and infects it.
The L452R spike protein mutation is known to be resistant to certain monoclonal antibodies, which would otherwise stop the virus from infecting a cell.
That may have implications for patients recovering from a COVID-19 infection or even for people who have been vaccinated.
But the report authors write that the full effect of the CAL.20C mutation, both in terms of its infectiousness and antibody resistance is “unknown at this time.” ….
All things evolve. That’s not the question. The question is “is it evolving into something either deadlier or more transmissible and in such as way as to undermine the approved vaccines?” The knee jerk fear is getting out of hand. I read daily how something “might” be really really bad or “could be”, without any context of how likely such a turn is, nor if it is equally likely that it “could” turn out much better than expected. This is tiresome. Vaccines are here. There is light at the end of the tunnel. Relax and enjoy the reemergence.
There is some danger that vaccines could be a bit less effective. The real problem though could be resistance to monoclonal antibody treatment.
In my opinion, which is only an opinion, if the the medical establishment would get on board with ivermectin, then the need for expensive monoclonal antibody treatments would be pretty low anyway.
This is Big Pharma treatment, and most people int he world won’t have access to monoclonal antibodies for a long time, if ever.
There has been a lot of trials on the cheap drug treatments but they are lowkey for reasons we all know. Some look promising and are used from what I hear. monoclonal antibodies are really expensive but they work in some cancers very well. The problem with them when it comes to Covid is that they need an exact fit to the spike protein to work. If the spike mutates a little they no longer work.
my! impressive! I take it, you believe in most of this ‘science’ nonsense. Invest in it, please. Believe in it????
Could you be a bit more specific? You sound not too coherent in your thoughts.
….this ‘science’ nonsense…
Are you a time traveller from the Roman Inquisition following up on Galileo’s trial?
Greetings.
You may notice that “science nonsense” has made the modern world.
Don’t be scared of all the horseless carriages and flying machines..
14 % of the US population have had one or more vaccine.
How many of those people are out and about in society? (Too old, too ill, generally)
Given the structure of the vaccine process it’ll be a while before a meaningful portion of those who would be out and about will be vaccinated.
There is massive non-linearity in vaccinations vs illness. If we vaccinate the most vulnerable, maybe 5-10% of society, serious illness and deaths may well fall by 90%+ very quickly. You are ignoring this.
I would assume (I can’t find numbers) that the MAJORITY of people who are vaccinated work in hospitals and are probably more comfortable in a restaurant than they are at work.
I am.
When vaccinated, they should be comfortable anywhere.
The data is not in….I certainly do feel MUCH more comfortable having been vaccinated, but I am aware that the level of protections that gives me is still not well established beyond telling me that if I catch COVID I probably won’t have a severe illness. The data on the rest of it…..how being vaccinated affects transmission, and whether the shots confer what is known as “sterilization immunity” is not yet established. I hope we know a lot more in the next 90 days.
Mish – Unless I missed it, I haven’t seen you mention it, but Ivermectin seems to be a solid treatment for covid(75-80% reduction in deaths). Check out the FLCCC. Chris Martenson has been all over it as well. They have lots of papers/studies on their site. One one of their webinars, they did mention that Ivermectin works on the new variants as well which was one of my concerns.
Ivermection has been discussed on the forum a lot, although I don’t think Mish has written about it. Some of us, including me, have taken it. Not a recommendation, but I believe the evidence is compelling that it works.
I have been vaccinated and am no longer taking it as a prophylaxis…but I’d take it if I got COVID.
I have not seen that study
I will get vaccinated as soon as I can schedule a time in Utah that works for me
My opinion, fwiw, is that social distancing in sit-down restaurants works fairly well, just like it does in my office. Same with movies and live theater. If this were not true we have seen a lot more super-spreader events.
It isn’t great for the business models of these establishments, but it keeps them alive.
Fauci is a bureaucrat, listening to a large number of experts who don’t even all agree. He is the mouthpiece for policy, and he is trying to err on the side of caution. Is what he’s saying overkill? ….probably.
Israel opened up live theater this week. We will see how that works out. masking and social distancing still make sense to me, but not shutting down completely.
“would have seen”
“Israel opened up live theater this week”
Yes but lets remember that Israel has vaccinated “By February, the researchers said, 84% of the population 70 and older had been fully immunized with the Pfizer-BioNTech two-shot vaccine. Only 10% of the population under 50 years old had been vaccinated by the same time, the researchers said.”
Add also the less than 50 that had been infected without symptoms and you get a decent pandemic control.
The US is far behind so yes I think the population should be remind it that we are not out of the woods yet. Which BTW I think many people here think that we are
I don’t think that…..not at all….but I see reasonable evidence that I believe does support keeping restaurants and theaters open if social distancing and masking can be observed.
The proof is in the pudding. I have been eating out since June, theaters have been open here since June…….and no sit-down restaurant or movie theater I know of here or anywhere…..that has observed social distancing measures has been shown to be a source of super-spreading.
Of any variant.
Absent data to the contrary, it looks like overkill to avoid restaurants…to me. Not speaking for anyone else here.
Israel’s decline in coronavirus infection rates in recent weeks is slowing as concerns mount ahead of the Purim holiday and two and a half weeks after the country exited its third lockdown.
The Health Ministry has recorded a rise in the COVID-19 infection rate known as the R number – the average number of people each coronavirus carrier infects – from 0.83 to 0.9 in the past two days.
If this slight uptick in the spread of infection continues at the same pace, within days the R factor will rise above 1 which would mean that the infection rate is increasing rather than slowing down.
After a decline in the spread of the disease in the past week to 3,500 new cases a day, that number jumped to 4,389 new cases on Tuesday, with 6.1% of 74,000 testing positive for the virus. The increase began about two weeks after preschools and lower grades reopened in areas where the rate of infection was lowest, and a few days after the second stage of reopening began with more children back in school and shops reopening.
The rise in the infection rate was expected following the lockdown exit, which raises exposure to the virus. The spread of the British and South African variants and that children under 16 aren’t yet vaccinated has refocused the attention of health professionals on the education system.
However, it appears that the source of the rise in infections is not the school system. The data points to a decline in the infection rate among those 18 and under, through children in this age group are still a significant factor in the spread of the virus.
Due to the high immunization rate among the adult population, the composition of those infected and critically ill has changed in recent weeks. Children and adolescents aged 0 to 19 constitute more than 43 percent of all new patients, and those aged 20 to 39 constitute 35 percent of them.
One of the current goals of the ongoing vaccination campaign is to inoculate more young people. The vaccination rate is 44 percent among those aged 16 to 18, 56 percent for those aged 20 to 29 and 64 percent among those aged 30 to 39, which is significantly lower than older demographics.
Arab communities have also contributed to the rise in the infection rate, as their rate of inoculation is significantly lower than that of the entire country as a whole. The R factor in Arab communities has already hit the 1 mark, and the number of infected is about 20 percent of the non-Arab and non-Haredi population. In the Haredi community the rate of inoculation among those 50 and over is 68 percent.
Despite restrictions and night curfews, Purim, which begins later this week, may prove to be a particularly volatile period. Health Ministry officials worry about seeing significant violations of coronavirus regulations, particularly among the haredim, whose parties may turn into large events involving mass alcohol-consumption.
Future waves of coronvirus exposure are going to happen irrespective of masks, distancing, and lockdowns. The antibody dependent enhancement reactions among the vaccinated will be devastating. Why Fauci, CDC, FDA suppressed cheap, safe and effective generic off-label treatments is a mystery demanding investigation.
And how will this interact with non-sterilizing ‘vaccines’ and different anti-bodies to the same pathogen? What about the possibilities of exploiting the bio-marker placed by anti-bodies that differ from those stimulated by natural inoculation?
We can be tired of the virus, but the virus doesn’t get tired of us.
Science evolves….
….Global case decline has reversed—#COVID19 is once again surging overall worldwide / no longer dropping. Especially in Europe where the more contagious #B117 variant is driving faster spread & helping launch another wave….
….Ontario is starting to see the numbers reverse again, two weeks after the Premier started rolling back the restrictions in areas that still had high rates of infection….
…The caseload has increased everyday in the US this week. So have the deaths even though that’s a trailing number…
So, I mentioned the expected surge and the recent drops in comments here previously.
What is happening right now is new emerging disease. Just like last year. My epidemiologist colleagues suggest that it could be many years before we get it under control. In the mean time, we are learning how flexible and adaptive this virus is. A key thing to recall is that these new strains have emerged with the social distancing practices in place.
We know that people can be infected repeatedly. We know that vaccinated people can transmit already. We know it can deal with masks in its environment by becoming more infectious. Reducing the number of infections and reinfections reduces its chance to replicate, which reduces its chances to mutate.
We are trying to slow down transmission to slow down mutation rate to get ahead of this thing. Try explaining the importance of that to the public.
Humans dont deal well with future risk, and our most effective people dont even acknowledge it. They spend their time identifying real opportunities and then like Napoleon, they quickly capitalize on them. Effective people dont accept conjecture that isnt obviously true, they are I purely reactionary. However, they actively search out truth, and hope to be the first to find it and take advantage of it.
Mish is an effective person, climate change, mutation of a virus, its all in the future. If someone could convince him it was true he would believe it, and he looks for answers.
For myself, I’m in the scientific community, I feel that the risk of futher deadlier and more infectious strains in real, for now. However, as a scientist I can tell you that it requires multiple specialists to have a real conversation about those potential futures, and those specialists are speculating right now. My position is because their speculations arent good. I’m cynical, and I know their grant money depends on it being bad, but I also know these people and they are serious thinkers, so I’m inclined to believe that the potential for a bad future if we let this thing run wild is real.
We need a lot more data.
So, science community, what does science tell you about the likely evolutionary path of a virus confronted by a non-sterilizing ‘vaccine’? What does experience with corona vaccines in animal husbandry teach us? What does science teach us about the possibilities for ADE when people are sporting two or more types of anti-bodies against the same pathogen?
There is a difference between science evolving and us changing one’s mind in the face of fixed scientific knowledge. Mish is correct in pointing out the latter. Masks didn’t suddenly help after being “not necessary” because science on masks evolved, as but one example.
Actually the ‘science’ has completely reversed on masks. The facts and the physics stayed the same however.
Uh, I think you have answers to these questions already in your head.
I think what I originally wrote addresses your first two questions and the ADE bit, well. I’m not sure what your question is, you know that ADE requires an existing amplified and well produced non neutralizing antibody that binds the pathogen, and you know that the body will generate additional antibodies in search of a neutralizing one. Thats just the conditions that can create the set up for ADE.
I’m not sure what you are trying to say about this or the masks.
I can tell you what I see, I see no data yet indicating ADE. I do not like that they stopped vaccinating in South Africa, because they might be seeing it there with the new variant and stopped vaccinating because of potential harm, but I havent seen the data, so thats a conspiratorial thought. The current data suggests an evasive mode for the virus variants we know about to infect and sicken vaccinated individuals, not a binding event leading to ADE, but we will get more data in the coming months. Further, since we arent controlling the spread , and reinfection (i.e. non neutralizing ABs) is a thingñ. . . the variants will keep rolling in, per my initial comment.
The science of masks hasnt changed from the start. Not for me at least, it was clear from the start that the masks the public is wearing would not stop infection.
Its also clear that mask wearing reduces severity, why? Dose. Paracelsus taught us this would happen. Hundreds of years ago.
If we knew each other, we could have a beer and discuss. The internet is a bad place to talk about science or “science”. I just read an article that made it seem like Bill Gates thinks we are back to good this summer.
I sure hope so, but I’ve got serious doubts that I hope I’m wrong about!
The point of getting vaccinated is to be able to lead a normal life. If cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue to decline then at a certain point people will no longer see the use of masks and such. Fauci is just doing a bit of PR at this point in the pandemic to push that time down the road.
Your view of why people are vaccinated is overly self-centered. You do it to protect yourself AND to increase the protection for society at large. It’s this second piece that is the foundation of Fauci’s continued urging to do everything we can to mute this virus.
We are at the same place we were in June last year. Cases, hospitalizations, fatalities all falling. Last June it just went right back up. Does anyone KNOW this won’t happen again? If it does, the risk of ruining our economy and society for many more months is great. The reward for sticking with it a little longer is a greatly reduced chance of another viral case flare up.
It’s not hard to see the people who want everything open now are almost wholly discounting the risk of future flare ups. They are the same people who won’t take the vax and thus are hindering our efforts to achieve conditions they are deluding themselves into believing already exist. You can’t fix that.
“It’s this second piece that is the foundation of Fauci’s continued urging to do everything we can to mute this virus”
Didn’t I say that when I said he is doing PR to push that time down the road?
Last year the virus displayed the typical seasonal double hump for the prevalence of respiratory infections (the north and the south are not in sync in the USA). This fall, seasonality was again displayed, with the virus hitting the Dakota’s and the plain states first (high, dry, cold air). The seasonality of viruses tracks the absolute humidity: the lower the humidity, the more easily respiratory viruses spread, mostly due to physics, perhaps somewhat due to lack of sun and staying indoors.
Screw society.
The “normal” pattern for a flu virus is to appear in Jan-March, then slow in the summer, then return in the Fall full force, spreading particularly rapidly in November-January, and with the bulk of the deaths in December-February, and then vanishing for good in March-April, never to be seen again. Covid, thus far, and behaved in a similar manner. It appeared in January, spread in February-April, then slowed for the summer, and returned in the fall, spreading particularly rapidly in November-January, with deaths peaking in January. Yes, some people who were entirely wrong, tried to compare Covid deaths in Feb-April 2020 with flu deaths from the flu viruses that ran from January 2019 to April 2019, but they were comparing just the first three months of Covid to the full 15 months of the prior flu.
What will the future bring? That’s the question now. Will Covid act like a “normal” flu, and vanish forever, like some flu viruses? Will it morph into a cold-type virus like OC43? Will it keep evolving, and re-appear every few years in another deadly variation? We don’t know.
What do we know? The most important thing we know is that, this time around, Covid is dropping for very different reasons than it did last May. Last May it was dropping for seasonal reasons. Now, we are still in peak season, and it is falling anyway. In every state, once they reached 10-12% of the population having tested positive, cases peaked and began to drop rapidly. The most likely explanation is that for every person who tested positive, 6 others either had Covid and were never tested, or had some sort immunity, perhaps a cross immunity from a Cornavirus cold variety, or perhaps they had a very active, functional innate immune system, and were able to defeat it easily. Add in to this “herd immunity” the number of people being vaccinated, and the number of people who can still be infected are small, and shrinking.
Thus, another wave seems very unlikely, unless Covid mutates sufficiently to be able to infect large percentages of the people who already have immunity. I could be wrong, but I expect to see cases continue to fall, without more waves, and I expect that by the end of March the numbers of cases will be small enough that people are no longer paying much attention to Covid. We shall see, though.
Re: “Does anyone KNOW this won’t happen again?”
No, but there are good reasons to think that it is unlikely to happen again, because this time around the cases are falling for a different reason. Last summer, the cases fell because of the arrival of summer, and then accelerated again in the Fall, a typical pattern we have seen before.
Technically it’s not a vaccine, same as the the flu ‘shot’ is not.
You show your nativity by coming to a blog like Mish’s and repost “news” like it means something or holds any value. If your head isn’t in the sand, you knew about the oncoming mutation narrative months ago. Wake me when you have some original insight that doesn’t trickle down from the Ministry of Truth.
*naivety
Can you add context and not just dump articles? Thanks in advance.
Babies are born with all sorts of nasty shit on them from Mother. Key question: Does it harm them?
If no, then its not a real issue
Instrument broken, mobbe?
Did Mish go to medical school and study epidemiology and infectious diseases ?
The Nobel award winning inventor of the PCR test, Kary Mullis, does have the training and he does have an opinion about Fauci.
I will be the first to point out I do not have a degree in economics either.
Speaking of medical school…
When the FDA detects adverse events in an approved drug (Phase 4) such as a single potential death related to treatment, it pulls the drug immediately from the market.
Hundreds of deaths linked to vaccine recipients, but all “fact-checkers” and vaccine cheerleaders denounce the outcomes as unrelated. What a world we live in!
Epidemiology is obviously not your forte.
Omg this. Just shut up and take the vaccine, wear the mask, stay away from people, turn on your trusted news network (hint: CNN). Don’t ask questions unless you have an MD and at least three PhDs.
Sarcasm ?
Hear, hear.
Nothing will stop you from “getting sick alltogether” so that’s an impossible expectation. We had better demand our institutions define the threshold where folks can make their own decisions.
When did epidemiology dictate society? What does epidemiology have to do with basic economics? Never and nothing.
What does the ability of epidemiology to dehumanize an entire species have to do with being human? Everything.
Standing on a mountain and screaming Epidemiology only proves you think and live in a bubble with all the air sucked out of it.