by Mish

GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.6 percent — May 12, 2017

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.6 percent on May 12, unchanged from May 9. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending inched up from 2.7 percent to 2.8 percent after this morning’s retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecast for second-quarter real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to -0.4 percent following the Monthly Treasury Statement issued yesterday by the U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service. "

Nowcast Latest forecast: 1.9 percent — May 12, 2017

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The dive in the GDP models has been temporarily postponed. It will resume shortly.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

GDPNow vs. Nowcast Update

Both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP model forecasts today. There was little change in either.

Dueling Forecasts: GDPNow 4.2% vs Nowcast 1.8%

For the first quarter, the initial GDPNow forecast was 2.3% on January 30, 2017. The GDPNow forecast spiked quickly to 3.4% then crashed to a final estimate of 0.2% on April 27.

Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today’s retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

GDPNow, Nowcast Divergence Remains One Percentage Point

In response to poor economic data this week, both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model reduced estimates by about 0.3 percentage points.

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.

Investigating Curious Anomalies in GDPNow and Nowcast GDP Estimates

As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow model for the second-quarter GDP stood at 3.4%. In contrast, the FRBNY Nowcast report was 2.2%.

GDPNow 2.5%, NY Fed Nowcast 1.7%; Huge Discrepancies: Why?

The New York Fed released its GDP “Nowcast” today. The New York Fed model expects 1.7% seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR), a jump of 0.5 percentage points from last week.