The Census Bureau report on Durable Goods New Orders and Shipments shows growth in new orders has slowed to a crawl.
New Orders Month-Over-Month
These month over month comparisons are wildly distorted.
But for those interested, the recovery continued for a fourth month with new orders up a tiny 0.4% vs an econoday consensus of 1.5%.
Durable Goods New Orders 1993-Present
Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago
The above chart is the worst looking yet. It shows a rolling decline in manufacturing that stated mid-2018.
Percent changes month over month for aircraft were so wild I had to remove them to prevent severe chart distortions.
One of the best ways to see the covid impact is to look at year-to-date totals on new orders and shipments.
- New Orders: -11.3%
- Shipments: -8.6%
- New Orders Excluding Transportation: -3.0%
- Shipments Excluding Transportation: -2.8%
- New Orders Excluding Defense: -12.3%
- Shipments Excluding Defense: -9.1%
Government military spending added a percentage point to the recovery in durable goods.