The Census Bureau report on Durable Goods New Orders and Shipments shows growth in new orders has slowed to a crawl.

New Orders Month-Over-Month 

Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change Month Over Month 2020-08

These month over month comparisons are wildly distorted. 

But for those interested, the recovery continued for a fourth month with new orders up a tiny 0.4% vs an econoday consensus of 1.5%.

Durable Goods New Orders 1993-Present

Durable Goods New Orders Millions of Dollars 2020-08 Long TermA

Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago

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Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From a Year Ago 2020-08

The above chart is the worst looking yet. It shows a rolling decline in manufacturing that stated mid-2018. 

Percent changes month over month for aircraft were so wild I had to remove them to prevent severe chart distortions.

One of the best ways to see the covid impact is to look at year-to-date totals on new orders and shipments.

Year-to-Date Highlights

  • New Orders: -11.3%
  • Shipments: -8.6%
  • New Orders Excluding Transportation: -3.0%
  • Shipments Excluding Transportation: -2.8%
  • New Orders Excluding Defense: -12.3%
  • Shipments Excluding Defense: -9.1%

Government military spending added a percentage point to the recovery in durable goods.

Mish

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in November. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%

The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.

Durable Goods Orders Jump on Defense Spending

Durable goods orders jumped 0.6% in October thanks to a surge in defense spending.

Of Durable Goods Orders (and How to Buy an Election)

Durable goods orders in December jumped 2.4% led by defense department spending. Otherwise, it was a pathetic report.

Durable Goods Orders Increase 1% But Badly Miss Expectations

Economists expected durable goods orders to rise 3.2% in June vs. a reported 0.6% decline in May. They were not close.

Durable Goods Orders Rise 2.6%, Details Weak: Excluding Transportation 0%

The headline durable goods order is exceptional but nearly the entire rise is new aircraft orders.

Durable Goods Order Jump 4.5%, Almost Entirely on Aircraft

Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Drop 4.4% in October, Huge Negative Adjustment in September

Durable goods new orders fell 4.4% in October. The Census Department revised September from +0.8% to -0.1%.