by Mish

This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 6.8 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent.”

Yep, new orders are up two of the last three months, but they are also up three of the last five, with two wild swings, one in each direction. Let’s investigate more details.

Durable Goods Categories

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Hurricane Impact

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Fortune Magazine reports Hurricane Irma and Harvey Damaged 1 Million Cars. What Happens Now?

Hurricane Harvey destroyed 300,000 to 500,000 vehicles in Houston alone, according to Cox Automotive estimates. The firm, parent company of Kelly Blue Book and, has its headquarters in Atlanta.

Good for Dealers Bad for Drivers

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The LA Times reports Hurricane Harvey Ravaged Cars and Trucks — Bad for Drivers, Good for Automakers.

Good News for the Economy?

In one word no. Involuntary destruction of productive assets is never a good thing economically.

Yet, New York Fed president William Dudley says Hurricane Effect to Provide Long Run “Economic Benefit”.

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Consistency Underappreciated

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Today’s durable goods report is likely to boost GDP estimates a tiny bit, but that will come at the expense of already fading future demand.

GDP estimates have fallen substantially.

We have economically clueless officials setting interest rates and policy.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Durable Goods Orders Decline 6.8% Led by Aircraft

Huge surges and declines in aircraft orders have made for extremely volatile durable goods orders lately.

Durable Goods Order Jump 4.5%, Almost Entirely on Aircraft

Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Jump on Defense Spending

Durable goods orders jumped 0.6% in October thanks to a surge in defense spending.

Durable Goods Orders Surge on Aircraft: Core Capital Goods and Autos Decline: Overall Weak Report

The headline durable goods orders for February beat the Econoday consensus and January was revised higher as well.

About those Durable Goods Aircraft Orders: Undercurrents of Worry

Aircraft orders have helped pad durable goods new orders for some time. Will those orders translate into actual delivery? When?

Durable Goods Orders Plunge 1.2% Largely on Aircraft Orders

Durable Goods orders fell 1.2% led by aircraft down 18.6%. Autos orders rose 1.7% in a lingering hurricane effect.

Aircraft Orders: The Only Durable Goods Item Humming

Durable goods orders for March rose 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus of 1.1%. Revisions lifted February gains from1.7% to 2.3%. Once again the good news stops there.

Durable Goods Orders Decline By 1.6%, January Revised Lower

Durable goods orders declined 1.6% in February. January was revised from +0.4% to +0.1%.

Durable Goods Orders Dive 3.7%

The consensus got the direction right but not the magnitude. Economists expected durable goods orders to drop 2.0%.