Durable Goods Orders Disappoint, Up on Aircraft Orders

The Census Bureau reports New Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods in November increased $3.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $241.4 billion.

New Orders

• Durable Goods: +1.3%
• Excluding Transportation: -0.1%
• Excluding Defense: +1.0%
• Transportation: +4.2%
• Core Capital Goods: -0.1%
• October Revised from -1.2% to -0.4%

Shipments

• Durable Goods: +1.0%
• Excluding Transportation: +0.2%
• Transportation: +2.6%
• Core Capital Goods: +0.3%

Durable Goods Highlights

Notes

1. This was not a bad report but it failed to meet the Econoday expectation of a 2.0% bounce.
2. Factoring in revisions, the consensus was nearly spot on.
3. Autos still show a hurricane impact and they are a sizable portion of durable goods.
4. Aircraft skewed the the report making November look better than it really was and October worse than it really was.

One can make a bullish or bearish case out of this report but once the hurricane impacts on autos and machinery is over, it may be difficult to sustain good numbers.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock